By I wish I could say there is a big revival going on – that Gordon’s clunking fist is re-inspiring the Scots' Labour vote – but sadly it is not. A straw poll this week among senior members of Kirkcudbright Golf Club – while waiting to go off for our Wednesday Sweep – was for the "none of the above" option.
Now down south people might think: golf club = Tory voter. In Scotland the game has always been far more egalitarian. My partners yesterday were a plumber and a dairyman; most members would rate themselves as “salt o’ the earth” Scots (except for the ex pat folk from Yorkshire and Lancashire), the folk who should be Labour’s core vote.
These Labour folk now laugh at the information coming out of the Labour in Scotland’s main media outlet, The Daily Record, for its constant railing against the SNP, no matter what, while sounding just like a wee boy who claims the big boys have stolen his ball. A recent Record attack led directly to Ian Gray, leader of Labour at Holyrood, having his most embarrassing First Minister Question Times since he took over from Wendy Alexander. The subject matter was irrelevant, the attack was botched as it had ‘leaked’ in a radio interview earlier and Alex Salmond danced round Gray landing punches faster than Mohamed Ali while Gray was left looking like the roped dope. “It was fairly typical of Iain,” said one Labour colleague. “He has a habit of cowering in a corner and hoping that nobody will hit him.”
Behind the comradely facade, Scottish Labour MSP’s are actively briefing against Gray and expect the SNP to increase the number of seats both in May 2010 and May 2011. The gist of their complaint is that Labour at Westminster does not allow Labour in Holyrood to develop Scotland-specific policies, and that Gray is spineless and will not stand up to either Brown or Murphy because Brown "owns" him. This in turn leaves the party in Scotland fighting with at least one hand tied behind their back. Fine, they say, chase the ‘Middle England’ vote but the very policies that appeal to this group are an anathema to Scottish Labour voters.
With the current SNP vote share both Alistair Darling and Jim Murphy (Scottish Secretary) are in danger of loosing their seats; Darling to the SNP and – if the jungle drums are right – Murphy to the Scottish Conservatives. Two of Brown’s loyal MSP’s, Margaret Curran and Cathy Jamieson, have been rewarded with PPCships in two of Labour ‘safe seats’ for the general election, with the intention of their leaving Holyrood in 2011. This looks a bit like the Brown rats are leaving a sinking ship.
The view of the political wonks in Scotland does not make happy reading for the party: "Labour losing the general election could be very divisive for the party. That could last for a very long time – beyond the Scottish elections in 2011 – and that’s not good news for Labour,” says James Mitchell, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. "Gray is clearly no match for Salmond. I think, privately, even his own party would admit that, but at the moment I can’t see who else might succeed him.”
According to Mitchell, however, Labour’s best hope is to adopt a more pro-Scottish approach:
“The danger is the UK battleground will be seen to be between the SNP in Scotland and the Conservatives in London. Where does Labour fit into that? Every unionist party has to get the balance right between Scottishness and Britishness. The Conservatives are starting to get the balance right, Labour are way off.”
The writing looks to be on the wall. But will Brown see it?
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You ask “Why if I am so pro SNP would I want to raise awareness of Labour in Scotland's plight?“ Could this be because you are a nationalist troll want to make the SNP look good and Labour look bad using a combination of selective quotation and misinformation mebbe.
And you are a nationalist troll loooking to annoy decent honest Labour supporting types.. that's fairly obvious from your previous posts..
“My dichotomy is I will vote SNP at the general election in 2010 and Holyrood in 2011 because I believe the Parliamentary Union has served its purpose and is now holding back the UK as a whole. I also happen to believe that SNP social policies better reflect Scotland’s current needs and expectations than anything so far produced by UK Labour.” Peter Thomson
Thu 26th Nov
"Now we have the Calman Report, Gordon Brown’s attempt to muddy the waters, to bring Scotland to heel, to prove once and for all Scotland is too wee, small and stupid to run its own affairs; except it hasn’t. Mon 12th Oct 2009"
"So why waste a vote on a New Labour Party, set on its own self destruction, when the option is to vote for the SNP and its positive vision for Scotland?" Fri 7th Aug 2009
As if you aren't pro SNP
“My dichotomy is I will vote SNP at the general election in 2010 and Holyrood in 2011 because I believe the Parliamentary Union has served its purpose and is now holding back the UK as a whole. I also happen to believe that SNP social policies better reflect Scotland’s current needs and expectations than anything so far produced by UK Labour.” Peter Thomson
Thu 26th Nov
Now we have the Calman Report, Gordon Brown’s attempt to muddy the waters, to bring Scotland to heel, to prove once and for all Scotland is too wee, small and stupid to run its own affairs; except it hasn’t. Mon 12th Oct 2009
"So why waste a vote on a New Labour Party, set on its own self destruction, when the option is to vote for the SNP and its positive vision for Scotland? " Fri 7th Aug 2009
Now back under the bridge with you..
A vaguely non-Scottish perspective.
English Parliament. Yes Please.
It won't have an in built Tory majority, as others, I think mainly Peter Barnard, have repeatedly shown this to be merely a Tory propaganda statement and not based on reality.
Union Upper House replacing the Lord's. Why not? Clearly a better option than a retirement home for the mates of various party leaders.
Now that might seriously change the game and show Labour understands the democratic mess, and understand what could appeal to the electorate in the south of Britain.
Brown's stooges have brought this to pass to such an extent there are party MSP's, MP's and party members in Scotland who wish for Jack McConnell to be back in charge.
In June 2009 the SNP had a 10% advantage over Labour in Scotland after the EU elections. Mori's more recent poll (Dec 09) taken after the Telegraph poll showed the following:
Labour 32%, SNP 34%, Cons 15% and Libdem on 12% which better reflects the overall trend of all the polls in Scotland.
Why if I am so pro SNP would I want to raise awareness of Labour in Scotland's plight? Why would I quote political sources usually favourable to Labour in support of my claim?
@Tokyo - Scotland has the same population as Greater London but over one third of the UK land mass, is only in political Union with England and has retained many of its own unique national institutions. Scotland is not comparable with Birmingham or any part of the political system that constitutes England. To take this view and your parochial parish pump view of Holyrood is to misunderstand the political state in Scotland and to give support to the SNP's case for independence. Your are simply reflecting Labour in Scotland's main weakness, it is second rate, it went into devolution thinking it would become simply another Labour sinecure so there was no need to bother. This is an even bigger worry because currently for 2011 at Holyrood the SNP lead is 8% over Labour and labour have no one who can lay a glove on Salmond or are likely to have with Ian Gray in the chair.
So to all Labour supporters nationally - with out a rapid change in Labour's approach to Holyrood and Scotland, Labour are in trouble and are in increasing danger of becoming the Greater Glasgow party.
Labour will tear itself apart in the same way as you Tories did; but learn from its mistakes and will be back. I will take no pleasure in the demise of the Brownites and the PLP. I will really laugh at the sad and blinkered who supported them.
'I will take no pleasure in the demise of the Brownites'
That's a surprise to me.
Whilst I'm all for having a wide spectrum of views within Labour, I have some serious reservations about the closed courtier style of appointees to cabinet of married couples and brothers.
Can it really be that these are the best people, or are they the best options within a very limited sub-section of the PLP?
I simply don't believe in the coincidence that has both Milliband Bros. and Cooper-Balls in the cabinet at the same time.
Maybe Yvette Cooper and Dave Milliband are capable enough and should have a future under any opposition leader, or even future Labour Prime Minister. The other two seem to be there based purely on knowing the right people and being included as a counterweight against those not beholden to GB for their prominence.
Balls is loud but loathed (what exam results) and seemingly ineffective, and Ed 'nice but dim' Milliband (50 days to save the world) seems to lurch from one indefensible position to another (we'll have another 32GW of off shore wind generation, and ignore the previously planned 16GW is seriously behind schedule.).
They're not concentrating on the big constitutional issues which could undermine any future Labour chances, and it seems the SNP will get their way because the most basic remedies aren't even up for discussion.
Personally I hope Darling doesn't go down with the ship.
I used to think he was effectively TB's and GB's passive glove puppet, because he seemed vaguely invisible, but actually it seems he never made waves because unusually he was quietly concentrating on getting his job done.
I think the Miliband brothers are capable people, in the front line but not leadership material and they should stay. The fact that they are related is incidental.
Some of us were despairing at economic policy 5 years ago. Having watched Yvette on Newsnight regularly, she is a complete lightweight and fish out of water. Yvette was there delivering the message. Still she is Ed Balls wife and that helps the old career – nudge nudge.
Alan Johnson is a lovely chap, but not leadership material.
Darling is the man, together with a new team.
Fair comment. I can accept there may be a rare occurrence where a husband and wife or two siblings make it to the cabinet. But at the same time?
We seem to agree at least one of them doesn't seem to be capable in the position.
If it was the Tories, the cries of nepotism would be deafening.
It must be a good sign that Darling seems to have enhanced his reputation in a situation that would normally kill off a chancellors repute.
Just to clarify what I meant. In my view with the Miliband brothers it is not nepotism, with the married couple it is nothing but nepotism.
Alistair Darling is saddled with the financial legacy of Brown. I hope that he puts himself forward for leadership and is successful.
Unfortunately, Scottish Labour have the insight and political nous of a bunch of party hacks who find themselves in a power share in a large local council. This is in large part because Scotland _is_ a large local council: it's not hugely larger in terms of population or GDP than Birmingham or Manchester. The A Team, in so far as Labour have an A Team these days, have long since fled south to get away from the sectarianism and general rubbishness of Scottish politics. They're left with the C LIst, the likes of Ms Alexander (it's not great when you look at bit dense next to Douglas Alexander, but it must make for a fun Christmas dinner).
So we have the real concern that what's going to happen is Labour being heavily defeated north of the border, on the grounds that irrespective of your views on Salmond's policies or party, he looks like Albert Einstein's brain crossed with Bill Clinton's charisma next to Ian `by name, and by nature' Gray. Out of power both in Westminster and Holyrood Labour could then implode further to the point that they cannot stop the Tories from solving the West Lothian question for their own political advantage; once you have (say) Scottish constituency MPs being prevented from voting on matters affecting only England because the relevant powers are devolved (a policy which would be incredibly popular in England) then Labour are out of effective power for a generation. They would need an immense majority to get any legislation through.
rebutting it all would take more time than I'm willing to give it ... but lets just look at the observable numbers
“With the current SNP vote share both Alistair Darling and Jim Murphy (Scottish Secretary) are in danger of loosing their seats; Darling to the SNP and – if the jungle drums are right – Murphy to the Scottish Conservatives.”
Err I don’t think so
Alasdair D has a 7000+ majority, over the Conservatives.. and at the last election the SNP came 4th on 10% of the vote.
As for Jim Murphy
Labour: 20815 (43.9%)
Conservative: 14158 (29.9%) (SNP did hold on to their deposit … just)
But of course Jim might be a victim of the “Cameron Bounce” .. except that North of the Border there isn’t one
Figures for the last Westminster voting intention poll i've seen (TNS BMRB in November Scotland were
Con 18
Lab 39
LD 12
SNP 25
And then there are his incredibly well informed (must get that irony emoticon installed) reports of internal Scottish Labour party matters..
The gist of their complaint is that Labour at Westminster does not allow Labour in Holyrood to develop Scotland-specific policies
Errr has Mr T arrived on the Golf course in Kirkcudbright direct from Mars? Hasn’t he noticed the way market mechanisms aren’t part of the NHS in Scotland ? … or the smoking ban , put through in Scotland , by Labour at a point where Westminster Govt was very cagey about the concept .. or introducing salried GPs or … Ibut you get the point
“Two of Brown’s loyal MSP’s, Margaret Curran and Cathy Jamieson, have been rewarded with PPCships in two of Labour ‘safe seats’ for the general election, with the intention of their leaving Holyrood in 2011. This looks a bit like the Brown rats are leaving a sinking ship.”
Errrr except that Cathy J hasn’;t yet been selected for Kilmarnock …She quite possibly will be , but that is more likely down to nearly 30 years of political engagement in Ayrshire rather than a “reward” … Margaret Curran is the candidate in Glasgow East , just as she was in the by election last year … a by election Labour lost - hardly a ‘safe seat’ then. ..
But of course getting it right isn’t Mr Thomson’s purpose … he’s a nationalist who wants to do labour down - in this case by wantonly and wilfully lying to people.
Please go and troll somewhere else
If Labour are trounced at the GE, they will spend the next 5 years tearing themselves apart.