By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982
A Populus poll for tomorrow's Times shows little change amongst the main parties, with Labour (29%) and the Tories (39%) both down a point and no change for the Lib Dems on 18%, compared with the same poll last month.
UKIP were the main beneficiaries (up two to 4.3%) of a month in which Europe dominated the debate - particularly on the right.
The full data from the poll are not yet released, but the Times is also reporting:
"Public optimism about the economy has recovered strongly this autumn, particularly in the south-east and among the middle classes.
The poll shows that the number of voters thinking the country as a whole will do well over the next year has risen from a quarter to a third since July and is now the highest since April 2008. But nearly two-thirds still think the country will do badly over the next year."
The Times also says:
"The number expecting a hung parliament has slipped from 57 to 50 per cent in the past month, the lowest level since the question was first asked in April. By contrast, the number expecting a hung parliament with no overall majority has risen from 17 to 26 per cent. However, nearly two-thirds, 65 per cent, still expect the Tories to be the largest party, against just 27 per cent for Labour."
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So rather than sit back and mock the tories it would probably be better to start to explain the why's and the what's and the benefits of being in Europe to everyone.Personally with the current state of the economy now is the opportunity.Rather than the great Gordon trying to convince us that Europe is grateful for his help in saving the world,he should be explaining how given the current mess we are in it would be absolutely suicidal to leave and that the only reason why the IMF haven't turned up to close the doors(a la Iceland) is that we have membership of this club.
If the Labour party stopped using Europe as some great socialist experiment and actually got involved in the centre with France and Germany then we could enjoy more benefits and influence.
I expect a majority of at least 50 seats at the election and as Guy says I expect the "others" vote to shrink come election time.
When compared to ICM and factoring in margin for error the Tory lead is around 14%.
With a lack of campaign money, a lack of actual supporters (membership has crashed) to canvass and suicidal policy announcements desperately being produced on a daily basis the election will see the Tory vote firm up and tactical voting to ensure that Labour doesn't win a fourth term.
Polling would suggest Labour are left with about 200 seats
After the election? As guy has pointed out the HOC will be reduced in size. According the the New Statesman this will mean another 44 odd seats lost by Labour. If the Scots become independent they will lose another 40 seats. All of a sudden Jackie Ashley's figures don't seem so far fetched.
However, even if it excludes the Nationalists, then it's still worth bearing in mind two points: 1. the LibDems historically under-perform their poll rating, and 2. people telling opinion pollsters they're going to support "another" Party tend to end-up supporting one of the main parties when they realise their fringe party can't win (see Chris Daggett in last week's New Jersey Gubernatorial election; had he matched his poll rating of low to mid-teens, Democrat Corzine would have been re-elected, instead Daggett's support imploded and went to the Republican Chris Christie).
There's an argument to say that this is a temporary UKIP bounce because Europe dominated last week's news cycle, particularly with Cameron's speech.
Given the current financial problems of the Labour party, a result next May that meant a second election in a short space of time might result in Labour not being able to fight it or even getting close to financial meltdown.
Maybe as a Tory I should be hoping for that 2 election situation after all......
I do wonder whether the analytical models polling companies use to massage the results have the current "anti-politics" hostility of the electorate built in. If not, then as suggested that 14% may be overstated.
Agreed so far....
It has been argued in the press that sometimes it takes 2 elections to reveal a fundamental shift in power. This might be the case next year.
I could see Cameron winning, Labour imploding if Brown steps down and a quick follow up election (after some populist Tory policies) producing a secure Tory majority.
Once a redrawing of boundaries gets carried out of course and Labour false advantage is removed then a 6%/7% Tory lead produces a government anyway.
The interesting result would be a Tory lead of a couple of % points with a Labour majority. That I suspect would lead to a real challenge to the political system.
I have become so concerned with the semi police state the UK is becoming under Labour that another Labour win of that nature would actually get me to support civil disobedience and demonstrations for the first time in my life anywhere