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Poll List: Labour take slight hit from week's news

PollBy Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

Labour has taken a minor hit in the first post Hoon-Hewitt poll, slipping by a point as the Tories rose by two compared with another poll conducted by the same group earlier in the week.

It's not too drastic in the circumstances but the YouGov poll shows the Tories rising to 42%, Labour down to 30% and the Lib Dems on 16%. Any bounce from the Tories' weak start to the campaign, however, has certainly been lost - and it may be too soon to judge the full damage of this week's news.

Transferred broadly to a general election using the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator, these numbers would give the Tories a majority of 62, with 356 seats to Labour's 235.

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Posted on Jan 08, 2010 at 12:13am

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Shh Roger.

Don't say it too loud.. The people who think things will get better read this thread. They must be left believing in "Tory cuts versus Labour investment".

Don't tell them..
madasa fish @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
Surely to win votes Politicians need to sell something and at the moment the only serious matter is the ruinous debt mountain and reducing number of jobs. No politician of any hue wishes to enter the fray on this matter, as it really is all gloom and doom. What we are currently seeing is just posturing on all sides and nothing of substance will be said before the Budget. However, that said, if Darling gets his way then the bitter medicine bottle might be out sooner and I wonder how the voters will react? I suspect it would swing the Swing Voters.
Roger J. Davies @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
@ Dual Citizen

It could get bad. On the other hand it could have little impact...

At this moment, all our prognostications ought to be written on toilet paper. That way, they won't be entirely useless.
Peter Jukes @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
Your "slight" hit" is more like a 10 per cent chunk out of Red's 30% once you factor in the 2% rise in Blue.

I'd say your headline is more "sleight" than "slight".
Sam Francisco @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
@Peter

Not sure activists can affect a poll survey result!

Scary thought
Ralph Baldwin @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
The Tory showing in the polls has been very consistent for a long period now: hovering around the 40 percent mark. I think that unless something very unexpected happens we can assume that in the election that will be their result. However the Lib Dems and the Labour poll results have been much less consistent, with Labour on average gradually climbing over the past few months and the Lib Dems dwindling.

To me this shows that Clegg and the Lib Dems are failing to ignite any passion in voters and that it is in THIS area that Labour can gain enough votes to enter hung Parliament territory.

So this says to me that the Lib Dems should be Labour's main target in the coming campaign, not the Tories.
David Honour @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
Actually Peter this shows how bad it (the H-H plot) could get for Labour.

(If you believe in uniform swing, which I don't but it's the only readily available predictions from UKPR & the like) ..... This may only be a 3% swing but it translates to going from a conservative majority of -5 (just about parliament territory) to a majority of 62. A couple more per cent swing and we're back into Tory landslide territory. That's a lot of hard work undone in a "moment of madness".
Dual Citizen @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
So the news that Harman and Milliband were behind this little 'storm in a tea-cup' will go unnoticed and unpunished?

3% this week and 3% next week I think.

Mike Thomas @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
A one per cent dip is just statistical noise, surely? All within the random sampling margin of error.

Thanks to quick action by activists like yourself and Ralph, I think this storm has been kept to tea cup proportions, and my guess is that it will have little influence on the overall trends...

Er... Which aren't that good. But now we're in election mode, you'd expect the gap to narrow. My hunch is that the Tories will be polling around a 7 per cent lead (bar some major calamity or happenstance) come May/June and election day.

Not enough to secure them a healthy majority. And that will be vital to the post Brown era and our chances of renewing ourselves.

There's still everything to play for, and from everything I've heard and read from Ralph, I sincerely hope for his constituents sake, he trounces all the opposition, and becomes the next serving MP.
Peter Jukes @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago
lol I suppose all publicity is good publicity policy reigns here lol!

I would love to see us begin to advance now, we should start talking up the economy now and GB must start advertising as much futurestuff as possible!
Ralph Baldwin @ 8 weeks and 6 days ago