Poll List: Labour support spikes as Tories slump

It seems moderation is being ramped up so as to avoid of delicate souls. Lets see if this gets through:

I note that tonight we have a poll that put Labour on 22% just 1% above the Lib Dems and 17% behind the Tories.

And yet.....

SHOCK

No post.

Hilarious if it wasn't so sad.

When will this site start thinking about what Labour should be?

@ Mike Stallard,

"silly, babyish vocabulary ...."

Er, what would you say about "Rumpey de Pumpey" and "Lord High Thingummyjig?"

Presumably, you would describe these words as the very stuff of mature political debate, since they are your own very good words.

But, you are right - "Europe" rumbles on, deep in the bowels of the Conservative party. It's only the fact that they see the possibility (probability?) of winning next year's General Election that the bacteria deep in the gut of the Conservative Party are keeping quiet. After next May/June/whenever?

Ask Sir John Major. He knows a thing or two about Conservatives and "Europe."

The Conservatives are torn apart by the European fiasco of the cancelled referenda (Labour and Conservative) and also the "election"(!) of Rumpey de Pumpey as "Mr President" and the Chair of Herts NHS Trust as Lord High Thingummyjig.
UKIP are gaining fast. UKIP, by the way, is not the Conservative National Front. It seems to be largely made up of Conservatives who actually believe that we are indeed "better off out". It isn't racist or anything like that. People with a LOT to lose, of course, pull out all the silly, babyish vocabulary at this stage. "Eurosceptic", "Swivel Eyed" even "Racist" and "Homophobic" and "just like the BNP". This is not only infantile, but also unfair. Were it true, the conservatives would have no trouble in winning the election.
Until Europe blew up in its face, the Conservative party looked sure to win. Now that is not the case.

I find it interesting that when polls put Tories in front by 15+ points this site chanted that "polls don't mean anything" and now they show Cameron running out steam etc.. I'm not sure this poll really means anything in isolation. A couple of different polls over a month or two would need to happen before I get excited by this result.

I wouldn't be worried if I was David Cameron. He hasn't unveiled his manifesto yet because (as we've seen, inheritence tax etc) Labour will merely steal the policies and take their territory. It does make everything much more interesting though.

Also, I honestly don't believe GB to be capable of going 4 months without a massive balls up. Something will go monumentally wrong in the time between now and the election so this poll may well be redundant in a few weeks.

Finally, in normal times the run up to the election favours the incumbant but not this time IMO. Instead of normal times where people go to the polling place thinking "am I ready to vote for this untried person?" they will more probably be thinking "can I bring myself to vote for that awful Gordon Brown?".

I agree. After two terms in office most governments begin to run out of steam and starting making mistakes. It also seems to be the case that political parties can only reinvent themselves, their narrative and agenda while out of office.

I suspect that the Labour Party will lose the next election and find it impossible to believe that the British people will give enough support to a party that would return Gordon Brown as Prime Minister for up to another five years. I fervently hope that if this happens that the party in opposition will gradually move leftward back towards the centre of politics rediscovering some of what it once was, once stood for and was created to do, and finally put the excesses and dishonesties of Blair and his disciples, e.g., Purnell, Flint, Blears, Hutton et al, behind it forever.

I do not believe that a Cameron led government will be successful in the least but, sadly, cannot see the Labour Party cleansing itself of corruption and making itself electable post-Brown within four to five years.

This is an interesting view, that applies some science.

http://politicalbetting.com/


It looks unbiased.

Assuming this weeks poll is not a one off and we are looking at a hung Parliament the Politics could be the most interesing for years.
Lets assume Mr Cameron comes first but with no majority, the horse trading will start. Can Clegg join the Tories after everything he has said? I don't think so, but also will the Tories be up for PR as the Liberals will not do a deal unless this is agreed. So the Tories will either have to do a deal with the Scots Nats but will have to agree to give Scotland a vote for independence or a deal with UKIP promising an In or Out Referendum.

Can you see my point, a hung Parliament will be extremley dangerous for the Union and Europe. If either of these two outcomes surface, we can all lay the blame at Nu Labours door. So be very careful what you wish for.
Personally I hope if the Tories win a deal is done with UKIP and we can finally have te debate on the EU we so desperately need, now that would be Democracy.
A better choice is get rid of Mr Brown and who knows what then will happen, but one thins for sure, if you relace Mr Brown with the right person Labour could pull off a remarkable victory.

Agree on both counts.

I do wonder, though, why more here don't recognise that the electoral cycle always leads to changes in government eventually.

Statistically it is trends that matter not spikes: things are still bloody awful for the Labour Party.

While I'm here I'd just like to say a big thank you to GuyM for taking the trouble to tirelessly demonstrate what grass-roots Tories really believe. David Cameron has been trying to fox the public that his party now cares about the elderly and the vulnerable, which has done his electoral chances a power of good. The heroic efforts of brave souls like GuyM, courageously and valiantly swimming against the political current, to put Cameron's confidence tricks and mythologising to bed are praiseworthy.

Thanks GuyM.

Keep up the good work.

(I only hope GuyM isn't an agent provocateur deliberately spreading black propaganda in order to assist Labour in discrediting Conservative policy.)

From up here in Scotland I find it hard to believe this poll and given the disclosures in today's Sunday Times (which could only come from Labour sources).

Labour Peers are openly briefing that getting rid of Brown is the only way to save the party and if the party will not do the voters certainly will. The cabinet is going to hell in a hand cart. Mandelson's in a huff because Miliband didn't take the EU job so he could become Foreign Minister like his granddad. Ball is working with Mandelson to get a re-shuffle so he can get Darling's job and Mandelson can be Foreign Secretary. Mandelson tried the wiggle his way into the EU Foreign job and was given the heave ho because he has annoyed the people at Brussels with his high handedness, Hoon was black balled for being to 'too chummy' with Blair so Lady Ashton got the job by default - all Brown's, apparently.

Brown can not afford to upset Darling any further as Darling knows where all the 'banking bodies' are buried and to sack him will cause even more squalid finger pointing - the back stabbing begins in earnest. This is all before the Iraq Enquiry gets going, the voter fall out for no real action over the Kelly Report recommendations and the increasing evidence that Murphy (Scots Sec)is heading up a blind alley in his attempt to get a White Paper on the Calman Report implementation published to try and head off Wee Eck and the SNP - a subject high in the pecking order in today's Scottish Broadsheets. I wonder how long it will be before another tale of Mandelson's alleged sticky fingers appears from some unattributable Labour source and he is forced, yet again, to resign from government - I give it until Wednesday ;-).

Yet we still get inane authors on Labour List telling us it will be all right, if only we stick with Gordon! Have these folk never read the 'Wizard of OZ'? Brown is the Strawman, Mandelson the Tinman and Miliband the Cowardly Lion, even worse for New Labour - Harriet Harman is no Dorothy while T Blair is clear the Great Oz himself. Meanwhile the Wicked Witch of West London grows in strength and the voter Munchkins are resigned to take what's coming because they have to hope it has got to be less bad than the current bunch.

Activists like Ralph are being forced by this bunch of inveterate liars and schemers to fight the BNP with both hands tied behind their back. A pox on all their houses.

@Ian
Depends how you define privatisation.

I've outlined here exactly how it could be done by keeping the assets in public ownership and converting the Royal Mail to a John Lewis style co-op owned by the staff which shares the gross revenues proportionally with investors.

The result is neither Public = State nor Private = Plc but a genuine capital partnership.

again John I have an whole list of aspirational things, and maybe we shou;d say that as a distinct area to show what we want

we won't

as for the RM the major problem is that sorting by hand is simply not acceptable in these times. No matter how much I treasyre the service it has to move on, but in a manageable way and with the least impact possible, that can NOT be done through any form of privatisation

Whose "we"?

Hey fella, after this Battle of Barking (I have to be realistic and I will fight tooth and nail) I won't be doing anything as I won't get elected. I made my bid to reform the party and help it, I have been fighting to help the Party for months on end, and until recently been given two fingers from the MP's.

Labour Members and MP's do not want my brand of Politics and I'll be taking it with me when I leave the Party after the General Election. I have made big sacrifices to come here and help clean up the mess made by the losers in the Party, after this I will take my life back and go join my friends. I did consider challenging for another PPC but with so much going on it won't happen.

You guys can do what you like, after the General Election I will go back to my life of fun fun fun! Bugger politics after this, I will have had enough.

Ian,

I suppose this may be aspirational on rail. It was managable in 1997.

The postal service must not be lost at any cost. The unemployment is NOT acceptable.

Alex,

When do you think we will see such reform?

John, I would love to agree to

"I dont care what it costs keep The Postal Service in public ownership, simple. While we are on the subject nationalise rail. "

but costs at this time are rather important are they not ?

Ralph

"I reckon at best we have at least ten years out of power"

interesting because if the Tories got in and do the same policies as the 80's if you remeber it deepened the recession caused greater and unshiftable unemployment and if it was not for the Falklands could have been a one term government.

And Cameron has none of Thatch's personality either, porbably none of Blair's either

If we lose but the majority is small for the Tories I would bet it would easily be one term and we shoudl prepare for that.

RB,

I dont care what it costs keep The Postal Service in public ownership, simple. While we are on the subject nationalise rail.

"The cabinet are a consensus". That's why all the talk of electoral and parliamentary reform is important, too. Accountability, and bringing more power to the legislature, rather than the executive.

Well indeed.

But look at the Royal Mail privatisation. Mandelson told us that there was no other option. We knew that if it was up to him Royal Mail would be sold off immediately - he just didn't care about how unpopular that decision was. Thankfully, someone stayed his hand, but it is clear that whether Labour or the Tories get into power next year the Post Office will be privatised, and things like the universal postal service will disappear.

What is frustrating is that Mandelson is not open to other ideas.

@Richard Blogger,

No I am older, I lived through a bankrupt country 1976; power cuts of the late 70's; the Winter of discontent and a country on its knees due to industrial relations; Unemployment spiralling out of control; the riots in the 80's, the miners strike, privatisation et al. Heartless comments from heartless politicians. Hotels blown up. The SPG.

No sir, I have been around the block and have seen a lot.

Ian,

Agreed. On all three points. Alex mentioned James Purnell, but the man has discredited himself badly. As I said before people will only listen to you if they think you do not blatently corrupt.
The man has displayed no shame whatsoever. Labour Party has to be a clean party or we are through.

Any of us could have the gretest policy ideas in the world, but if earn total political mistrust through sleaze you are finished in Parliament even if re-elected.

I am hoping we have some decent candidates, but I fear that we don't. I reckon at best we have at least ten years out of power. This is based upon the expenses "carry-over" as the issue will not be officially resolved until the next Parliament, also in the hearts of many people the issue will never be resolved for a much lengthier period.

I think we are certainly in for interesting times though, as all indiciations are that David Cameron will continue the elitiest actions of one Tony Balir and puh the British public into a place it has not been pushed since the 1980's. I also believe that with long-standing unemployemnt that no party will address (they are too fearful and conservative) that we will not be out of recession anytime soon.

Confidence remains low as the corruption has been widespread across the establishment, also the bubble legacy will haunt us.

Don't get me wrong I hope we pull through, but I think that even if the parties like the BNP are beaten in Barking, more places will provide themselves ripe for Nick Griffin, particularly in the North of England.

John, since you mentioned me...

I take it from your comment that you are not old enough to remember the broken communities in the 80s? Seriously, at the moment we have relative calm in society and although there are people who are disgruntled it is nowhere near the anger that was around in Thatcher's time. Then, we lived in a very polarised time. Militant was on the up, and the Labour party was shifting left-wards. The National Front (the pre-cursor to the BNP) felt that they had a free hand and were marching in many places around the country. The far left were stirring up labour unrest (possibly egged on by MI5 agents provocateur). Inflation was in double digits (it peaked at 24%). There was a large hike in VAT. Jobs were being shed everywhere. It was a bleak time.

As an old git, naturally I will say that popular music was better then, but what is certainly true (and has been mentioned in a post here a few weeks ago) popular was more angry and more inspirational.

see Ralph I see no possibility we will be in power so changes can happen. Now last time it took too long we can not afford to let that happen again.

As to Brown, I was disappointed at not being given the chance to vote but no other heaveyweight candidate was going to push it through. So come next June the whole dynamics changes and then it becomes interesting.

@John
I think you've summed up pretty well what I and a few friends feel.

However, if there's enough of us working towards the same goal, then it could well have an effect.

One thing is maybe, identify the Labour candidates that do represent a call to re-shape the party post New Labour, and can clearly explain the fairer and better Britain they are working to, and more importantly, how, and give them our support.

My own image, is the candidate must be local, and must be familiar with the lives and concerns of the constituents, and helping to address those issues.

For that reason I'll not be getting off my backside to help with some invisible ex-Wndsworth councillor who can't be bothered campaigning in Suffolk. But I could if there was a candidate who warranted the effort, even if it is someplace else.

There must be somebody near you surely. Unless of course you're in Scotland, in which case even a Sassanach like me would feel the need to vote SNP in current circumstances.

@Alex and Ian,

I bet when GB was made leader you both thought it would actually change something. You don't seem to get it. The Cabinet are a consensus. A leader will probably try and keep his political and commercial allies happy and seek a replacement that will maintain the status quo. Only a term out of power permits any substantial change in policy (with the exception of the Tories who seem to be locked in history).

Should Labour be reselected there will be no change of direction, just a change of face that will keep you happy for a few opinion polls. The changes you are discussing will not see the light of day.

ha ha that is the hard bit Alex !!

I just favoured a more tightly relegated free market in all areas

so for example in the power and water industries actually look at them properly and work out and regulate against the rises they have inflicted. for example how much did gas prices rise and then fall, did we see the price to us reflect this, yep the rise, most certainly not the fall.


take on the vested interests, do not allow the city ever to dominate our agenda and do not let what the press say worry us

But there's still much discussion to be had to figure out exactly what replaces it!

exactly Alex, we have to move to that position and surely after we spent billions on rescuing the banks now we have the moral right to change that, How can the right argue against the change by saying the same system should basically stay in place.

Problem is that Brown is too tied into New labour to do this but we should hold out the prospect of being able to do it and be brave enough to do it.

the economy is going to be the over riding issue and the Tories will offer nothing like they have done over the past two years

Any suggested alternatives?

I would agree with what I think is your view; that New Labour was good for its time, that there have indeed been drastic reforms in the quality and provision of our public services, but that the Treasury and No's 10 and 11 held onto that ideal for a few years too long. They should have known that a bubble, by definition, bursts, and moved much earlier - after the reforms in public services had been completed - to avert the pop.

Now, I agree; New Labour has to shift once again to a system that encourages growth but discourages reckless, unsustainable growth that does little or nothing in the long term for the wider good.

There will be quite a change in personell after the General Election and the new dynamic will produce new individuals. Assuming she can stay out of prison I suspect Harriet will put herself forward. But I cannot bear the idea of any of the current crop leading they are too media obsessed, living in fear of upsetting the papers, which in politics you are doomed to do anyway at some point.

We need an articulate leader who really does work with the PLP and the rest of the membership, and one who understands the importance of cleaning up the reputation of the Party and can project a consistent and plausable policy plan that really will improve things for us all. I am unsure any of the names mentioned are even capable of even one of the criteria I have mentioned, never mind three.

the 10p was such a stupid move it makes you wonder how the hell he or any of the cabinet never mind the advisors never saw the impact.

and that is the issue, own goals like that should never happen.

you should tell me more abotu this open left project because surely the future of the left is based on the left and no more trying tie up free market economics with social reforms.

surely the last two years have shown the free market has no regard for society and the impact it has.

Said it earlier but the Tories are preaching more of the same mess we got ourselves in, time to move left and show there is a viable alternative to an unregulated free market.

but how can Brown do that after 12 years ?

there is an opportunity there to be taken.

That's not necessarily true. As you may know, I'm not the biggest fan of Gordon. I think he handles things badly, I don't like the bullying-briefing culture of some of those around him I think he's a good man with good intentions, but 10p and the Ghurkas really upset me. I'm not certain we can win with him at the helm, but I have seen an improvement since the summer, at last. But I'm not prepared to throw my hat in the ring on successors yet!

It's hard to say. I like him, as I said. I think he's smart and he's doing a good thing and an important thing with the Open Left project - trying to find out where Labour should go next? I think he's likeable, personable, has ideas. It's hard to see whether those ideas will be appropriate, though, until they're presented, and he's said that he's no longer interested in front line politics. Time will tell.

Alex, Purnell tried to push through some horrid welfare 'reforms' Cruddas for me never has shown he can be a leader but maybe a Prescott kind of deputy ?

We can all pick names for the future, my fav is Johnson, they are tainted somewhat bt if you give them the freedom ?

however for here and now Brown is going nowhere so I wonder in their election planning meetings what is being talked about ?

Sorry Alex I was late commenting

OK. I thought you meant you knew something I didn't. There have been rumours that he's restless and looking at other things than politics. Just rumours, I might add, but interesting nonetheless. I like James - very smart guy - but I agree that the direction he might take the party might not be suitable. But since you're talking "dream tickets", how do you feel about a Purnell/Cruddas effort?

I am an idiot got mixed up !!!

sorry Alex, course he will be one ...

and on his OS the first piece is a visit by Milibrand, possible 'dream ticket' ?

no chance for me both represent a wing of the party we need to move away from somewhat

the time was right for the 'third way' in 97, for now we have to move left.

That's interesting, Ian. HE's got a big majority of around 8,000. What makes you say that?

@Alan

I doubt Purnell will be an MP to fight for the leadership

I couldn't give a rat’s arse of what the "wealth" of the family down the road is. I work for me and my family and no one else.

So there's no such thing as society?

I wonder where I heard that before?

Agreed, Sue. Leaving government always emancipates the opinion of MPs - Short being a good example of this.

"I heard a radio programme last week that discussed a level of public sector cuts which might have to reach 20%, and yet our leadership seem to be in total denial of a fraction of that amount."

Like I said before, a Labour government cannot exist without huge public spending, whether it is affordable or not. It is not in their interests to be honest about this - you only have to look at Brown's "Mr 10%" attack on Cameron. Like all his other attacks, it has been totally discredited by his own crass stupidity and dishonesty.

You expect an honest discussion about public finances being in a mess from a Labour government, above all others? No chance. Labour do what they always do - spend,spend,spend,spend.....and then start printing money to balance the books.

"Policies for the Common Wealth - rather than for the State or for private privileged interests - are the only way out of the crisis.

Any MP who recognises this could tell their Labour or Tory selection committees to get stuffed, and they would be re-elected by a landslide. "

Unless their constituents are mainly home-owning taxpayers with private pensions, of course.

If Labour win the election will they let Brown stay as PM?

I doubt it, and here is something interesting, in allowing Baroness Who-She Ashton to become EU Foreign Minister, it is obvious little David Miliband is keen on fighting for the leadershikp, but look out, Dave - your old chum James Pur-nell was reported in Friday's Evening Standard to have been taking a Turkish bath a deux with Tim Allen, Alistair Campbell's ex-right hand man, in New York last week. No doubt they were just discussing the price of flat cleaning these days. Or were they?

Despite the sad curtailment of Pur-nell's "engagement" earlier this year, it's nice to see he is out and about trying to make new friends. A real "man's man", don't you think?

But if Miliband AND Pur-nell, the David and Jonathan of politics both want the top job, I fear tears before bedtime, or handbags at ten paces. And there was me thinking they'd grow old together, like Derbya nd Joan, or Byers and Milburn.....

Interesting re. Clare Short. For me she was a breath of fresh air on Questions Time, and you could see that the audience felt very positively towards her. Compare her performance with that of Woolas - he was shifty, uncomfortable and came across as extremely untrustworthy. She has guts and she has honesty - it seems the current leadership are frightened to show either of these characteristics. I heard a radio programme last week that discussed a level of public sector cuts which might have to reach 20%, and yet our leadership seem to be in total denial of a fraction of that amount.

Ralph,

You are right my glass is half empty and I applaud you as somebody who has risen, to stand for office and go that extra mile to serve. In comparison I find myself as the very negative on a forum doing nothing. I wonder what could I do, I cant fight for the Labour party as it bears no relation to my views. I feel like I am a moaning old fart. You represent exactly the kind of individual that will build a decent and honest party. You havent failed, how much can one individual do? You have done 10,000% more than I have and I have deep respect for you.

It is the conspiracy and apparatchiks that get me down somewhat. The scale of the Economic disaster seriously gets me down as it damages the most vulnerable. Thatcher killed communities and Brown, is equally if not more culpable for what he has done. It is funny when Richard Blogger and Ian Robathan talk about how bad it was under the iron lady. In 5 years time there will be millions who talk about Brown in the same way. We had a chance in 1997 we blew it seriously. The UK is unique on the world stage, the commonwealth coupled with the size of our economy meant that we should be far further forward than we are today. Yes we have spent a fortune, have we got much for it? I do not think so.

Your situation is Barking reflects the despair of the working classes, the BNP feed on that despair. The pathetic article on Grayling reflects the Labour party today. Not dealing with the issues but desperate to show that they are more “progressive” than the other side. Because the other side say something, its wrong. Grayling is a pratt in my mind but what he is saying is not 100% wrong, nowhere near it. There is no long term message from Labour about the society we want. Try telling the Labour voters in B&D that we are more progressive than Grayling. You would quite rightly be called an Apparatchik and get told to err ... “colourful language”. Labour should be talking about a culture, what it is to be British; a culture that is not dependent on colour and is accessible to all; something to build a successful cohesive society around.

Good luck against the BNP.

John – over and out.

This poll was conducted on 13th November. Since then there were two further polls which were published in last week's papers which show the Conservative lead steady at 14%. By delaying the publishing of this poll for a week, the Observer is trying to create a story of collapsing suport for the Tories and is hoping that this will influence the polling intentions of floating voters. The fact is that this was a rogue poll and if they had published it last week, nobody would have taken it seriously. Instead we now have all major news channels and newspapers focusing on an irrelevant poll.

@John Smith,

That is why the BNP must not be elected. It would turn a platform into a new, dark movement. I am no more a fan of the madness in Westminster than you are. That is why I am for serious decentralisation and economic reform.

John, there is a difference between a pessimist and an optimist. A pessimist thinks things are terrible and life cannot get worse. An optimimist knows they can...

I cannot (I have tried) to put myself in a position to reform the Labour Party and clean it up and open it more to scrutiny and debate. But I am one person and I failed.

Just as I failed to advise the MP's to cut their wages fast back in May.

So to me I have concentrate on what I can do. Despairing isn't my way. But it isn't easy, Alex could show you some of my angry rants as I condemn those who have corrupted the Party, old or new.

It is not an easy path to walk, it is hard and tough and sometimes very painful. But I, like many chose it and will never give up as long as there are decent people that need our help.

Ralph,

In my view it hasnt and you are so wrong it worries me. All it has done is stave of a further decline by pumping money we do not have into the economy. Chris makes an interesting point:

"I don't think you realise quite how irretrievably bad the economic situation actually is. New Labour economic policies are both useless and hopeless"

In reality the reason that we are not out of recession is that our economy was based upon debt and house prices. We will not go back to that.

If you watched QT you would have heard Clare Short warning the general public to expect savage cuts no matter who gets in next year, it will hurt real bad. She called out the fact that everyone was lying and the faster people wake up to this fact the better. There are still 6 months to the election and Mr Brown and Mr Darling have no idea what is going to happen or when, we are in serious trouble.

The fact that our wonderful leadership cant admit this to the wider public just shows how sad they are. We are not preparing Joe Public for what is coming.

@Chris

"Policies for the Common Wealth - rather than for the State or for private privileged interests - are the only way out of the crisis.

Any MP who recognises this could tell their Labour or Tory selection committees to get stuffed, and they would be re-elected by a landslide"

Sorry once again to disagree with you, but you shouldn't be surprised.

I'll not vote for any Tory who co-operates with Labour in any way and I suggest you misjudge the feeling of Tory supprters who by and large are disgusted with this government to a level of near hatred.

Any and I do mean any Tory MP who works with Labour should be deselected and abandoned by his association. If you think Tory voters will stick with them then you don't know Tory voters.

On your other point, the "common wealth" is not my wealth and I couldn't give a rat’s arse of what the "wealth" of the family down the road is. I work for me and my family and no one else. The party that looks to reduce my taxes, even if that takes a few years, and leaves my private wealth well alone gets my vote. That of course means Labour is never to be supported and always opposed to my mind.

The governments recent strategy seems to have worked. Say you will make cuts on a projects Labour created, the public challenge it, you U-turn and people remember realise the value of what Labour gave them in the first place and fear the actions of a strong Tory Government.

Have to say I am, for the first time in a while, impressed. Though of course it is a sad day when you have to resort to this method to get your message across, got to admit though. It worked a treat.

@Guy

I don't think you realise quite how irretrievably bad the economic situation actually is. New Labour economic policies are both useless and hopeless: the only thing worse is Tory voodoo economics aimed at cutting the economy back to health. This is quite simply barking mad.

Policies for the Common Wealth - rather than for the State or for private privileged interests - are the only way out of the crisis.

Any MP who recognises this could tell their Labour or Tory selection committees to get stuffed, and they would be re-elected by a landslide.

@James Conway, 'Cameron looks shifty', I agree 100%, personally after breaking his promise to give us a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty/EU constitution, I would add 'looks seriously untrustworthy to the Euro sceptic voter' to that. If this poll is to be believed then I am not suprised and would say it is a result of that broken promise. On the other hand, McDoom looks sly, uncaring and incompetent. evidence= the handwritten letter event where he mis-spelt a dead soliders name, followed by a phone call where he did not have the self restraint not to argue with the deceased's Mother. Last night I watched our shambolic Prime Minister at the Cumbria flood zone...asking those poor people a question then not listening to their answers, just drummingout his pre-prepared sound bites in a flat monotone..God Spare us from this joke of a human being. I have to say, if Id been flooded out to have that pr*t arrive for a 'I really care, no honestly I do' photo op, would have me reaching for my boxing gloves..wasnt he the one who chopped £20 million from the flood defences budget despite the last floods of 2007?... Idiot.

Another scoop in the Sunday Telegraph today- some of the stuff Chilcot will be examining in the Iraq inquiry. Very, very bad for anyone involved in the New Labour project , and utterly corrosive of trust in politics in general. Blair will remembered as one of the greatest villains in British political history, with Brown as his Happy Shopper Iago.

@Chris

"possibly even some kind of National Unity government"

Any Tory MP working with Labour in any sort of government like you suggest should be automatically deselected by their associations.

"Poll List: Labour support spikes as Tories slump..."

Lol.

Hazico, Clare Short is an Independent MP, she resigned from the Labour party in 2006, over the row of her supporting PR and saying that a hung parliament would be a good thing.

I'm always amazed by the fact that a party in government, with an overall majority of 67, and the power to unilaterally declare war or make laws, can be "bullied" by a newspaper.

There's nothing that can be faulted in your list.

A friend of mine is an economist and he traces the whole problem back to the US repealing the Glass-Steagall Act. The act originally split commercial and investment banks, and the repeal created the vulnerable banks that eventually collapsed.

Watched cameron on Andrew Marr, he lookes shifty, Brown needs more guidance by manderson,stop chase cameron and chase the voters, get out and about the country, its the ECONOMY stupid, the rate of VAT should be kept,bussiness is finilly saying the the reduction IS agood thing,

I'm not crowing and I agree and have noted here that this could be a rogue poll. And actullay, I've posted about each of the polls in the last two months, so this isn't an exception.

What on earth have Labour done to achieve a virtual 11% gain in one poll, whereas all the others put the Tories at a 13% lead - and those polls were taken at the same time?

I don't blame Alex posting about this - taken in isolation (precisely what Alex is doing), it is a remarkable poll - which is why I would treat it with great caution - from both sides.

If this shift is replicated in the next set of polls - then yes, Alex can crow all he likes.

I somehow doubt it.

It always pays to read Mike Smithson from Political Betting on these matters.

here........

Are you sure that id cards have been scrapped? The last offical
announcement from Johnson said that from 2011 British citizens aged 16 over who apply for a passport will automatically be registered on the national identity database:so they are not scrapped.

Almost certainly -is in my case anyway. But Labour, who are even more devious and could have actually given us a referendum, will not be the beneficiaries - UKIP and BNP will. But those people will not be telling the pollsters that.

@Tom

I'd be amazed if more than 5% of the UK population thought twice about it. And I regard the EU as pretty much irrelevant these days.

Cheers, Rufus: interesting article indeed.

It's not quite the same for the US as the dollar is the reserve currency. As the man said, it's their currency and our problem.....

Almost certainly the effect of Cameron's EU Treaty Referendum decision.

@Chris C

Interesting article that gives back up to your comment.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/business/global/21pound.html?_r=2&hpw

@Ian

Roguish poll at best, I think.

But it IS the economy, stupid. If, as I suspect, the economy is unmistakably back on the slide by Q2 next year, then smart positioning by Labour (Mandelson/Darling) could see them reasonably well placed in a hung Parliament - possibly even some kind of National Unity government.

The reason being that the Tories have pinned their colours too firmly to the Voodoo approach of cutting the economy back to health.

I use this site to track the votes

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention

over the period the % has stayed pretty much tory 40-42%, labour 27-29%

this is likely to be rogue but the at the same stage in before 97 weren't we up around 50% before coming down to 42% or so in the GE. So the lesson is that the tory lead will decline the closer we get to the election so it is far from a done deal, especially if the economy comes out of recession the next time we see figures as clealry in other polls, economic confidence is growing.

and who said

'it is the economy stupid'

Surely the Observer is a viable source? Stranger things have happened! Maybe the message is finally sinking in? Or maybe the public are finally seeing the real alternative next year? Let us hope!!

The poll is rogue. End of story. You don't wild fluctuations unless something dramatic happens. It hasn't.

Purely subjective ....

Is this a poll that suggests that David Cameron 'has peaked too soon?'

Perception, regrettably these days, is all.

Fantastic news!!

There's still everything to play for....

I believe Labour has to keep its message clear and simple, and appeal to its core voters through its values.
Also- confront the Tories flimsy presentation of policies; there's plenty of heavy presentation and spin, but not a lot of substance!

We have 12 years' experience under our belt- and some great people/MP's- who could maybe have more of a platform pre election?
Was particularly impressed with Peter Hain's speech, and also like Alan Milburn.Some good speeches too from David Milliband recently.I also very much like Clare Short(great spokesperson and campaigner) and Oonah King- a fantastic role model.

The public need to see passion, honesty, imagination, and a realistic vision! Also "ordinary" people - not a sea of ex public schoolboys on one side of the benches!

But please, NOT more spin or negative campaigning- there's plenty of that in the tabloids- and we are all weary of it.It makes people switch off and not bother to vote.

PS- So great to have had Gordon Brown visiting Nottingham and the East Midlands- wish I knew he was visiting!!!
People here need to see the real faces and real policies.

Hope we can all keep up the passion and the impetus!!!

Hi Ian

We have had 12 years in goverment and we are attacking disabled people which will ruin lives , This policy is so bad the torys like it! The lib dems are a no-go , I might vote for local councilers might vote for any MPS , I dont know , i doubt it .

ricki

it does Ricki, it is this party, I do still support the general aims of it, it is better to try and change from within than not. The Lib Dems are not and never would be for me.

but we have to learn the lesson that is the key and some stuff coming out has shown this , whilst other stuff has not.

Hi Ian

You have just hit the nail on the head , We have torys on both sides of the house , The left has no voice .

ricki

that is going to be the key Ricki, after the mess the bankers made how can we as a left party claim more of the same is needed. Let the Tories argue the market is right, let us argue we need strong regulation and control over it. Of course would not happen.

@David Brede

There will be savage cuts across the bored implemented by the Tories after the next general election. The only reason that Labour will not be implementing them is because they will be in opposition.

I can't see that Labour have done anything to justify these polls, and neither have the Tories screwed up to warrant the numbers. If this poll were to be repeated next month, I would be worried and mystified. But, it won't so I can look forward to voting Tory for the first time in my life, knowing I played a tiny part in getting rid of Brown & Co...

Hi Ian

I agree being honest will be the way to win the election , We must not brush the eu debate under the carpet and we need to stop trying to out tory the torys .

ricki

Well ricki, put it like this I am with Mike, if we wet anti EI I could not be a memeber. But this is not yet another boring EU debate.

also the ID cards have been scrapped in all but name, but your right lets have it official.

once you get the policies I mentioned sorted then build on them, make cuts where it will hurt peopel the least. there is a lie that goes on, taxes will HVE to go up, if so target them on certain groups.

make a pledge that VAT will NOT be increased, I am sure the Tories want to to 20% and maybe include fuel.

but lets be honest and say where taxes will have to rise and where cust will be. Peopel will have to be acked but make it as painless as possible and none to effect the frontline.

Hi Mike

So i cant be anti eu and a "new labour" voter, I agree i am a Labour suporter , I do not suport a party that attacks the disabled as i said below .

ricki

Agree on all three

No, Labour is and will remain a pro-EU party. I would never vote for them otherwise

There are plenty of parties to vote for if you want to be outside the EU, but Labour is no0t ever going to be one of them

Hi Ian

I meant "wont agree"

ricki

Hi Ian

Agree with you there , I would also suggest.

1 Scrap id cards

2 scrapp the the welfare reforms

3 Hold a referendum on eu memebrship ( i know you agree with that but its my view)

ricki

three policies I would implement at no cost that would bring back some of our voters

1) scrap Trident renewal

2) strict rules on banks, split casino operations, tax them greater

3) look to bring back the 10p tax rate within two budgets

This doesn't altogether surprise me. There always tends to bee something of a move back to the governing party nearer to an election

Also the Tories really do have very little to say which sounds convincing

However, I find it very hard to enthuse about Labour. I can't help but think that much of their record is disappointing and some policy stances just plain wrong.

Hi Godwyns

I have to disagree , Our leadership look tired ,look at the Queens speech it unravelled within hours , The socail care promise was funded by cutting disabled peoples dla benifits , At the moment we have torys leading both major parties .

ricki

i am not surprised by this poll nor satisfied by it either; we can do better. I have also, not even for a dot, given in to think there is a Tory win regardless of how anyone argue it. If you guage the news in the last 2 weeks, the Tory noise is dying... and if you watch DC, he has finished his lyrics already. It seems to me he will be tired by the time election arrives. But no complacency... the fight is not over until the last echo of the bell dies.

David

"Certainly as their cuts agenda becomes clearer and those affected realise that they are to bear the brunt of it. "

ad a lot of those will be labour supporters, problem we have is that cuts have to be made, the debate is how they will be done and that has to be played out as the figures will be huge

Hi david

Would that be the cuts that "new Labour" are making ? The attacks on the disabled and there carers? Who ever wins the election will make cuts , "New Labour " bailed out the bankers and are now attacking the disabled .

ricki

Certainly as their cuts agenda becomes clearer and those affected realise that they are to bear the brunt of it.

I'm not sure of the chronology of the poll with the Sun's poor judgement on the 'Brown letter' story but this may reinforce the quandary Cameron finds himself in; although he doesn't necessarily have to praise the Sun he certainly can't vilify it either. So in this instance he had to keep his mouth shout and it appears many have seen this as him being on the wrong side of the debate.

Long may it continue. This is the boost the grassroot support have been waiting for.

David, all leaders have moments of doubt when the polls show a 10% lead. The problem the Tories have is they are still policy lite and the more we hear from them and the damage their policies will inflict then some voters will not like it.

There were stories that the Tory Leader had a fear of defeat. With his poll lead evaporating before him this is coming true.

Hi Labourlist

I dont know wether to be happy or sad , I dont trust our leadership ( and the whole "new" Labour scam) , However this might translate into a hung parliment , which i think is even worse , I think there are a lot of voters that have not decided where to put there x , The next few months will be intresting.

ricki

would say this is an anamoly, nothing really has happened to the tories to see this happen. Or could it be that as a lot of us have said that the Tory support is weak as thre is no real love for them like we had in 97 for Blair.

Said it before but the closer we get to May/June the more horrific the prospect of a Tory win and this will get a few more of our voters out if we are positive on what we want to do.