Poll List: Labour gains 9 points on the Tories; gap down to 7 in second poll

I speak for an awful lot of people when I say that we voters are in despair. Mr Cameron looks just like another Tony to me - and to a lot of other people. Hence the airbrushed poster business. The Lib Dems are never going to be more than a balance in a hung parliament. And you lot! Words fail me. Oh no. How about BASRA?

Or....

I am a Tory voter but xxxxxxxxx means I shall never vote for them....

Or....

I was tempted to vote for Cameron but his latest policy on xxxxxxxx means I shall be voting for the government.

That we see festooned across the comments pages of internet articles. I wonder if that's why they make people register these days.

Good - proof that Labour can close the gap with the Tories and even win! I only wish the Labour government believed it could win!

I wonder if Cameron's softening of his 'slash & burn' economic policy is a reaction to the fall in the Tory lead. There must be a little panic at CCHQ.

Hi Ralph

Glad you feelin better , And make sure you on top form .

Danny

Hi Ralph

Hope you are well , and keep up the good work

Danny

@Ricki

Thanks ;)

I am looking forward already to tommorrows canvass by Parsloes Park ;)

@Ralph

sorry that I misread that bit. I was rushing!
It could be that we could be saying that canvassing can be a completely different thing depending on the constituency and even the part of it.

I actually always let the person I am speaking with lead the conversation.

It sounds as if with the constituency you are dealing with you are absolutely right to focus on trying to deal with the real problems they have.

I would be interested to know if you find that much of that relates to problems with services. I wonder sometimes if there are strong enough complaints systems with some of the services, and I often come across situations where people are falling into the gap between services.

I think were we are with our canvassing here at present - Stafford - (The MP is David Kidney) we have covered a very large proportion of the constituency over the last couple of years, and that means we are now going back over uncontacted and don't knows.

That is possibly why I am picking up on large numbers of people who still do not have a clear idea of who they are going to vote for or where they can go to find accurate information.

I would say there are lots of different positions within this. Some don't know, don't care, and probably won't vote. others say they will make up their mind at the last minute, when all the leaflets start coming through their door, Others are what I call "genuine don't knows" they listen to all the stuff in the press and TV, they hear all the sound bites. They want to make an informed decision, and they are getting more and more confused.

These are the people I have really done our website for.

If we lose this seat it will be to the Conservatives. This always was a conservative seat, and we have only kept it so far because the MP is exceptional. I know if it does change hands this time that most of the voters will not benefit.

I am finding many people do want to know more and They do in large measure know that they cannot rely on the press for this. Generally like you I focus on explaining what it is that labour are doing and intend to do - sometimes when the voter has a particular interest in an issue I can point to what I know about the conservative manifesto.

I find that most of the people I talk with are gald that someone is trying to give them clear information in this way.

I let the conversations go were people want to take them, but it is always interesting.

@Diane

Excellent response. I think I would get to respect your MP very much as he is a worker and I love that.

The key issues here are Immigration, Crime, Council Service (by Council staff), Parking (in Mayes as no infrastructure - we are going to zone the place as residents like the idea), but mainly political neglect at all levels.

I spoke to a woman in the Ward who has not seen an activist/candidate since 1992....needless to say she has now.

This afternoon I met an ex-Para and he said something similar, he invited me in for a cup of tea and will be voting Labour now.

So making progress and weakening the BNP position, but it just rests on how many people I can meet between now and the election.

It is good and I love these people, they see you in the cold and I got invited for a cuppa four times. They are awesome and it is an honour and a privalage to be allowed to canvass them.

It really really bothers me to think of anyone neglecting these people.

Complete madness.

This will be ongoing I think and had it not been for our MP's Barking and Dagenham could have been a brilliant success story, but as I watched in helpless horror in South Korea last year I sensed the votes falling away as 99% of the MP's rejected my request to take a pay cut to counter the expenses.

I'm puzzled by the David Chaytor and Elliot Morley situation as well. Between the pair of them they fraudulently claimed £29,000 of taxpayer's money and aside from a slap on the wrist, they are being allowed to resign their position rather than being kicked out on their ear. When we see numerous articles in the red tops about benefit cheats going to prison, it seems a little odd that these two MPs in particular, having admitted large scale fraud, are allowed to simply resign? And why is there any doubt whether they should face criminal prosecution?

Going back to canvassing Ralph, I know we've discussed this before but it was before you were doorstepping proper. When you ask the question about why the person is so angry with Labour, how do you cope with what follows? What I mean is, if the person is angry about a particular issue and you know they are right to be angry, how do you tackle an answer for that?

@Bill

Where the anger is legitimate I listen, where there are inaccuracies I correct...how? Basically I listen intently, agree with the points that chime with my understanding but explain where things are worse and then where they are better.

They respect a balanced view and I explain to them initially that they are entitled to their views and that there are no judgements or labels from me. If they do not believe me I just describe a minority of the characters I met in the forces who make Nick Griffin look like a homesick hobbit.

Remember Bill my task is to find out where their vote will go and carting a load of BNP to a polling station under the guise of Labour is not my intent. I have to earn a certain level of trust and I welcome disagreements as I do agreements. The reception I get is very similar to that on LL. People think I am ok, but then I think they are ok too.

I help them whatever their political bent where I can as there is the personal vote element. There is some racisim but there is a lot of confusion too, many of the residents carry the same rumour fed to them by the BNP as it reoccurs on the doorstep.

It can be very time consuming and there is terrible frustration at where I am unable to intercede and help them.

why is there nothing on this sycophantic site about the other recent poll?

THE ONE THAT SAYS 80% OF BRITS THINK BLIAR IS A LIAR????

and why am I not at all surprised that a serial warmonger like bliar has no regrets? I mean, why should he regret kissing dubya's butt, the fruits of which are the millions he has "earned" since leaving no10

@micro

Because Tony Blair is no longer PM and we are discussing political party polling.

Strange for you to mention it really, not quite sure what point you are trying to make. Many people knew Blair was not telling the truth years ago...well done for catching up to the rest of us though.

I've done plenty of canvassing in the past and it's really hard work, but I wouldn't be able to go round now.

If one single person asked me why David Chaytor is still being used to ask planted questions at PMQs, I think I'd have to hang my head in shame on behalf of the LP. How he even dares to darken the doors is quite beyond me. It's like being caught thieving from Asda and then they ask you back next day to promote their store.

Interested to see the chat about canvassing.
This is something I love. Have been doing two sessions a week for about three years now, more nearer to elections of course.

Interesting that you think MPs don't do it Ralph. My MP is out with us virtually every weekend. I think he finds that this is part of what keeps him connected with the constituents and he draws energy from it.

It wasn't until I read your comments that I thought this was anything unusual!

He is in a key marginal and may well lose but he is genuinely loved by very many of the constituents. There are thousands he has helped over the years.

I am not surprised by Ralph saying that a morning of canvassing can leave him with 5 hours of case work.

There is this much and more to be done out there. If we had more people prepared to do this work the potential for helping communities to help themselves more is huge.

I think one of the big problems in this country is that we do not value or properly support a political infrastructure. I think there was a post somewhere else on Labour list talking about the system in france, where a town of 6000 people actually had 10 full time paid councillors.

I am not sure if that is what we need, but I do no that we are not even beginning to deal with the extent of the need that there is out there.

The other thing we are not doing is helping people to really understand the issues.

For most of us on here we know that the issues that face us are really serious, really brave decisions are needed on so many different matters.

Many of the people that I meet on the doorstep do not know, and in many cases they know that they do not know.

I am working hard at trying to give them comparative information about what the different parties are offering on my MPs website. Again I feel I am only scratching the surface, with more manpower I would want to be out there a couple of nights a week running discussion groups and listening events.

@Elizabeth - don't be put off by the idea of canvassing. I don't think I have ever had a door slammed on me. - As Ralph says it is important to approach people with courtesy, if you do that they sense it. Most people actively enjoy the contact.

Perhaps I am lucky that I know I am fighting for a good man, and that most people whose door I knock will know that too.

If you are a people watcher elizabeth, there are few things more fascinating! You really can't tell from the house,- and is often interesting that people living in identical houses, and with very similar incomes will vote differently, but I do play a game of predicting from the garden. I am getting quite good at guessing. A wide and interesting mix of plants is often a sign of a tolerant attitude.

@Diana

You have misread my comments. But you are right canvassing is overall, great fun!

My MP is out canvassing and I used the term "sitting MP's" to that effect.

I do the case work I pick up or defer it to another member of the Campaign Team. I do not pass any onto the MP who is busy enough.

I think the people understood the issues very well for example on on Street a lady brought an NHS screw-up to my attention where after a failed colon removal an aftercare worker used dirty scissors on a patient and contaminated an existing complicated wound.

What is there to understand about that? Remedial and very serious action has to be taken as a result of the condition the patient is in now.

Lack of jobs, the situation has never changed since the decline in the Ford Factory during the 1980's as mentioned to me by one gentleman I met who is desperate for work and money for his family.

What is there to understand here? I think he "gets" the situation very well. Espcially with regard to the economy. I would not dare to speak to one of these people with anything like "For most of us on here we know that the issues that face us are really serious, really brave decisions are needed on so many different matters" to them, not unless being offending the public is a canvassing remit.

MP's lying to the public and preventing the truth getting out over their corruptions for over three years is not complicated or difficult to understand.

In terms of the economy the people I met did indeed understand exactly what I said when I discussed the service economy as they blew the idea out of the water. They did that.

As for me I never discuss other Parties on the doorstep, only the Labour Party and attempt to deal with the issues the people are having to contend with.

The Tories have no chance in Barking as the people dislike them intensly and I have only met one Tory voter so far. It is either the Labour Party, BNP or UKIP so far in that order.

As I said the MP I am canvassing for is no problem as she was not caught in expenses. It is easy to speak on her behalf, I was referring to Ministers etc, not present sitting MP's in their own constituences.

Diane who is your MP/PPC?

Ralph Baldwin

I've never done door to door campaigning!
I take my hat off to you, & I know there's not a lot you can do if people slam the door on you.

I once listened to a Labour MP (I don't remember who) that said " when I was canvassing I always avoided the posh rows of houses
believing I would be moved on by true blue Tories".
It wasn't until I paired up with somebody who was adamant to call on all the private houses that ranged from bungalows to homes set in hidden driveways & private estates & the surprise for me was how on the odd occasion we were welcomed & informed "I have always voted Labour as my parents did before me".

Just think Ralph,at least Labour have a list of achievements under their belt for you to discuss on the doorstep.
"It could be worse"
Tory activists, they've only got about 4 people the voters have heard of & different announcements that change daily on what they're going to do if they get elected. That must be impossible for people on the doorstep to grasp!


cheers

@Elizabeth

You cannot ever tell whether or not someone is a Labour Voter by their house. This is true as I found out years ago in Norfolk.

The counter"slam" technique is working nicely and even works on loyal BNP supporters. Not difficult really.

Of course Labour has done some very good things (as Jon Cruddas points out mostly between 1997 and 2002).

The Party though is in a bad place at the moment. People talk about a "Barack Obama" campaign, we will not only not have it as things stand we will only ever dream about it.

You see Elizabeth elitism in politics is contrary to inclusiveness. As all fascism tends to be even in it's weakest forms. To have a broad base of consensus you need diversity and range. Our leadership (not just the PM or his potential replacement) are the very opposite of this as they have used the "New" Labour brand in a manner to hedge control of the Party and weedle out those they think are not in concert with them.

Then you have to add the two rotton eggs to the recipe, Government contractual corruption and then expenses and we begin to see what it is they are trying to promote within their narrow group range.

The important thing is to not get downhearted, afterall most of us are working our butts off for nothing because we do believe in the values of the Labour Party and more; those of us with an ounce of experience and imagination have every intention of undoing what has and is being done, for the sakes of the Party, the Economy, the Workforce and of course the Country.

Narrow labels and petty stereotypes are dished out by the strange people in the PLP. I did not invent or ask for this and have felt it's treatment when someone made the mistake of questioning my loyalty in a very tribal and childish manner.

I am not advocating this, I want rid of it. I want the Labour Party to be an inclusive organic and evolutionary organisation brimming with life. To realise this concept people must face the truth so as to recognise the reforms necessary regardless of the outcome of the General Election.

At the moment I spend my days with the most vulnerable of people in an area that has only known decline (with exception in small parts) over the last thirty years. These people placed their hopes in Labour, hopes that a newer and better economy would be built up to replace the actions of the Conservatives.

Sadly their faith has proven to be vain. No amount of optimism can replace the misery and despair these people have endured whilst MP's do very, very naughty things and simply adopt Conservative policy that only maintains the status quo and does not add to or improve upon it.

That is why 1000 people voted BNP in Mayesbrook (50% of total vote) in 2006.

I would dearly love to see the blind optimists knock on doors here, I would pay to see it for the entertainment.

Another thing Elizabeth, during this campaign we have seen many brave people volunteering across the borough and country to help out. But not a single solitary MP except the ones that sit here.

Even today the people in these areas do not matter to the Leadership of our Party.

That is why Labour must reform. In it's recent current form it only advocates the self-interest of low skilled and lazy people with low self-esteems with no idea what they are doing in Parliament.

Like I said we need to reform the Party so it can properly reform the country.

Pray tell us Mr. Baldwin what reforms do you refer too? Kinnock tried Old Labour liked policies and it got him nowhere, Blair/Brown stole the centre ground, but went on to wreck the economy with their big State, big spend, never mind the outcome spending binges. The Tories are huddled round the brazier in the centre of the Park, with Labour just on their left but trying to move right and the Lib Dems, well just about everywhere, but not really anywhere as you would expect. It looks like "me too" politics with everyone trying to appeal to middle England. As for strategies to get us out of this mess, I see none. I would vote against though, I would vote against the architect of this mess, namely Gordon Brown. I think you will find there are a lot like me, however, unlike me they will vote BNP. When Labour core voters are fed up they do not vote Tory, they vote for people that sound like Old Labour and promise to stop immigrants stealing their jobs and jumping Council House queues.

Hi Ralph, how does this 'door knocking' work? I have been at my current address since (coincidentally) May 1997 and I have never had anything more than a Jehovah's Witness knock at my door. Is it not odd to people that you disagree (quite rightly) with so much of what you are campaigning for?

fascinating discussion [as customary for LabourList!]

Bill and Ralph - always good to see people who seem in touch with reality. The Labour movement will need people like you after the election. Unlike some here who seem intent on slurring anyone who doesn't toe the ridiculous party line this country and the party face very many challenges.

One of the first jobs after the election will be to drive out those that have done so much damage to the party by the craven adherence to spin and lies.

@Elizabeth

Hi

If you think Bill is negative you really do need to meet some people on the doorstep. Some of the problems they are having with the Local Authorities, NHS, Crime are incredible.

I really will be spending most of my time tommorrow dealing with casework from just five hours canvassing. I met one woman who has ongoing health problems as a result of what I can only describe as scandalous treatment in a hospital and I am looking into whether or not she can take the relevant legal action (she does not know the law).

Stunned.

The sheer volume of work here is beyond anything I have ever seen as an activist or candidate before.

These are good honest people, they really are and their anger is genuine and we have to be able to have the confidence and optimism required to assess our Party so as to better it and ourselves.

@Peter

Agreed and that is how I have managed to deal with such comments previously.

Having just returned from five and a half hours of solid canvassing here in Barking I have met many people who voted previously for the BNP and are even now afraid to have an opinion on an issue as a result of said "thought police".

It most certainly does play into the hands of the BNP as these people who want to discuss Immigration in an adult and informed manner lash out at media and political oppresion.

The good news of course is that I managed to show them they had absolutely nothing to be ashamed of and that their opinions were of great worth. The fact is the Governments record on Immigration was dire and the role of the Home Office farcical. Many of these people have neighbours who are not white but get along fine, where they are worried tends towards the overall dramatic changes in the area.

When I canvass I do not call people anything, except for corrupt MP's they are fair game for anyone by virtue of their voluntary limitless stupidity.

Look. You can always avoid wars and battles by surrendering to the enemy before he attacks; which is pretty much what the Labour Party has been doing during the course of its series of cowardly political triangulations in respect to neoliberal and Conservative policies stolen from the opposition. Why not just get the whole masquerade over with once and for all? Dump Gordon Brown. Promote James Purnell to be Labour leader. Post general election the Labour and Conservative Parties could then go into coalition together to form a government in the event of a hung parliament!

I and Joe Public are getting rather bored with all that is spouted on racism and homophobia, I think that bringing this higher up the political agenda is in fact making matters worse. You are banging the BNP voting drum. Most people are neither racist nor homophobic, but do resent minority groups receiving far too much attention. Soon we will, for reasons of racial re-stereotyping, be using white working class boys as computer Nerds, Brain Surgeons and Rocket Scientists in BBC plays/films because they are a disadvantaged group. Just get them real jobs.

There has been discussion about what will happen to Gordon Brown if there is a hung parliament. However I feel it is also important to consider what might happen to David Cameron?

Personally I think if there is a hung parliament, Cameron is finished. The Conservative party is full of sharks with ambition who will say that even with the massive recession David Cameron was unable to win the election and he must go.

Roger J. Davies

"PR results in coalitions with fudged manifestos and unclear strategies, which have no mandate. I prefer the first past the post system where we have a clear mandated manifesto. If at the end of the term, like today, we think that they were useless then we can kick them out. Just look how well PR has served Italy and Ireland."

I think a debate about PR could be very long and may not achieve anything.

While I respect your views I don't think that Ireland would be better off if it had First Past the Post. That would have put one party, Fiana Fail, in power for the entire history of the Irish Republic.

I actually come from Northern Ireland myself, but I take an interest in the affairs in the South of Ireland.

I don't know about Italy, but I would wonder if a First Past the Post system might simply make Berlusconi more powerful than he already is?

On the subject of the likelihood of PR if there is a hung parliament in the UK, I think this will be more likely than ever before. The Lib Dems will make it item number 1 on any dealing with any party. It will also have support of other small parties if they have MPs such as the Greens who might have an MP or two from Brighton & Hove, where I live.

In the past there has been a respect for the electoral system and the mechanism of government in the UK, but this has diminished due to the expenses scandal. It is true that PR would not have had any influence on the expenses issue, but that scandal has meant that people now are more questioning of the system of government of the UK.

So I think that the seeds are set for the possibility of much debate/discussion etc. about PR for the UK if there is indeed a hung parliament.

Hi Bill

Its not right , None of the main party are anti Isreal (most are friends of isreal) and Many are gay , what does making the false claim achive?

Danny

It achieves a reaction which is all that is designed to do.

I learned a good while ago that if you speak out about someone who happens to be part of a minority group, you're doomed to fail. It doesn't matter whether you're right or wrong, you will be branded as a phobic. That is modern politics, it isn't about truth, it is about getting one person to feel inferior, get them to feel like they are out of place with the majority, thats just about enough to disuade argument or debate.

Unfortunately it doesn't work with me. My best friend isn't gay, I don't have a pal who is black, asian or chinese and I haven't got an uncle who is disabled. What I do have is what I beleive. If people choose to brand me a certain way because of their own little games, feel free. Meanwhile back in the real world is politics, what is happening here in the UK.

I don't believe for a second that the Conservatives are for the most part homophobic. I don't think they look back on WW2 and think shame we won that one, Hitler wasn't such a bad guy. The Conservative mind isn't a million miles away from the Labour mind, there is a difference, but its so slight that we all get caught up in that middle ground.

The sooner the middle ground is abandoned the better. What matters is people, real people, like the people who live around me. I look at them in the eye and I find it hard to justify that I have an affiliation with Labour, they are struggling, and struggling in a very real way.

Gone are the days when Northern Monkey can brand someone a homophobe for their view, its a tired old argument and one that is lost in the politics of today. Branding someone a Nazi, again, gone with the wind. Hitler died in a bunker over half a decade ago and there is a minority who maybe, just maybe follow his beliefs, but the majority don't. They look at the world like you and I, they look at the world in the view of the greater good. I just wish all politicians could look at the world as the greater good. What are the chances?

@ Bill

False accusations of racism, homophobia etc are abhorrent. But are you telling me that racism and homophobia don't exist.

Unfortunately it doesn't work with me. My best friend isn't gay, I don't have a pal who is black, asian or chinese and I haven't got an uncle who is disabled. What I do have is what I beleive.

But that's just your belief. Belief can't be debated. But ideas can...

Maybe if you asked what a Chinese, Asian or Black person felt. Or talked to a gay guy. You'd realise that there is racism and homoophobia, and it's just a potent - maybe more so - than false accusations of it.

I can only go by my personal experience, and I've seen plenty of it.

On the other hand, this will make you laugh. Someone very close to me is both black and gay. But he has a posh accent. He complained on the phone to a council department that he couldn't understand that accent of the council official, and was accused of being racist.

He was mortified beyond belief.

So false accusations of racism are used for power purposes. But let us not forget, just as false accusations are terrible, the real thing is more terrible still. It's not just something that killed people 60 years ago, but continues to kill - in Bosnia, Rwanda, Darfur...

Of course there is still racism and homophobia, there always will be whether a politician tells us its wrong or they spend another million on an advertising campaign, it'll be there until the end of time. To think it will ever disappear is to underestimate the power of stupidity, there will always be daft people with daft ides.

My point isn't that racism and homophobia don't exist, but they have little or no place in political arguments. Neither are they they a stick to beat the opposition with. Too often they are used as an excuse to brand someone, disregarding a valid argument and immediately putting the branded to the back of the class wearing the obligatory white gown and hood.

I chose Northern Monkey for a reason. His style of political argument is to sit and wait until someone makes a comment relating to a homosexual, then he will spend a good few hours with replies that are essentially a pack of lies. He'll come out with leaps of logic that would make Tony Blair blush, and he can get away with it because of fear. I for one am not afraid any more, but what I am is sick and tired of valid arguments and discussions being overrun by prejudice. Does prejudice only exist if you happen to be gay or of another colour?

It may well have been the case a few years ago, but prejudice is now alive and well for every man, woman and child here in so-called 'Great' Britain. The tables have been tipped over and it is now the case that the individual must think very carefully before they speak, someone might be offended by what you say. Well lardy dar, I'm offended every time I see GB launch into another of his "I know best" speeches, but there isn't a law to stop that, yet.

Are you happy that political discussion has this constant theme of accusations Peter? That you have to watch your every word incase its misunderstood and you're accused of being something you're not? How often does it occur when you're out and about? When was the last time you were accused of being racist in public? It happened to me quite recently while I was in a heated debate. The person I was debating with wasn't winning the argument, so very publically and very loudly that person decided to pull the race card, apparently even though I was being polite and well-mannered during our debate, all of a sudden I was being racially abusive. End of debate then, that person lost in a really rather spectacular way because they chose to cry wolf and when you think about it, that happens quit a lot.

What happens in Bosnia, Rwanda and Darfur have little or nothing to do with racism or homophobia, if they were not used as excuses than the powers that be would think of something else. They'd target everyone with ginger hair, or men who grew their finger nails too long. They pick on old women and brand them witches, or maybe young women who can't cook, perhaps they are the evil ones. What is happening around the world is the same thing that has happened throughout history. Twisted individuals will use anything and everything at their disposal to rid themselves of the opposition, remove those who stand in their way or just simply kill those that are not to their liking.

I'm going to busy myself for a few hours while my comment is dissected and reassembled by those who like to disagree for the sake of disagreeing and hopefully along will come Northern Monkey and prove my point by calling me a closet homophobe. Either way, the funfair that was false accusations is pretty much over unfortunately, those who use these accusations to further their argument or make some sort of political point may as well admit that they can't debate and instead have chosen to turn to name-calling. Much easier, I think, to just be honest and scream Liar Liar Pants On Fire than spend time and energy attempting to prove that someone really doesn't favour black people or they fear those who enjoy same sex relationships.

The easiest answer is one that I've used myself when somethings offended me, the little red X in the top right hand corner of my screen. I may use it now and go do something different. I might spend my Sunday morning sketching for once.

Bill Dewison

@ I'm offended every time I see GB launch into another of his "I know best" speeches, but there isn't a law to stop that, yet.

I'm not surprised "Bill" you can't relate to Gordon brown Because your opinionated rantings are of a negative content rather than saying anything positive.


cheers

Elizabeth Curtis, I'm sure that you and other fans of G. Brown will be delighted to have read the article in The Sunday Times claiming that Brown has promised to remain as Labour Leader after he loses the coming election.

Looks like it will be 'five more years' after all.

You're right on all counts Elizabeth, I am very negative at the moment and I do rant rather a lot as I am very opinionated. When I see a Labour Party that is working, doing the right thing for the right people and when it has a leader that I can respect for their good judgement, positive attitude and who actually listens to the people of this country, I'll be Mr Positive 24/7.

For the moment you'll have to just tolerate your dislike of my opinions or contribute an opinion of your own about what I've said rather than sniping.

@ Bill @ Ralph

I think there's a simple solution to this. I think no-one should ever call anyone a racist or a homophobe based on what they say, especially on a blog.

I think it's legitimate to call certain statements homophobic. Guy M, late of this blog, would say things like 'I don't care about gays' which is a borderline homophobic statement. But mere comments on a blog don't make anyone a homophobe or racist, any more than voting BNP. It takes consistent action over time before we should ever make such serious charges against any person.

Comments are different though.

To me, that's the way to cut through the knot. People make unconsciously sexist statements all the time. If a women points that out, that's part of dialogue, political debate, and why we talk about these things.

So it's legitimate to explore the political consequences of a comment or expression.These may be unintentional, but that's the nature of this stuff.

But if someone calls you a sexist, through and through, and makes a personal assumption based on a comment or two, well that is political correctness gone mad, and an oppressive kind of thought police. It's counterproductive too, and actually causes a backlash against the kind of people its designed to protect.

I didn't see your interactions with Northern Monkey, so I have no idea if he directly called you a homophobe, or actually said that something you posted could be construed as homophobic.

But we should all be careful with the language we use, especially over such explosive issues, and learn to separate the opinion from the person.

Peter Jukes

As always an intelligent post that manifests a caring & tolerant human being.



cheers

@Bill D,
As thought provoking as normal. I'm beginning to wonder if you pose such rhetorical questions to flush out those who aren't capable of giving a counter argument that doesn't end up being no more than insults.

I'd disagree with your comments about the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, because actually the people involved did think, not so much in rascist terms, but in tribal ones. But the difference in the end is purely semantic if you're on the receiving end.

It still involves labelling someone as 'one of us', or as 'different/outsider', and that applies to most forms of such discrimination.

Even if the UK were entirely white and heterosexual, somebody would still be going around pointing at some other group saying they were different for some other reason. In the past it was religion.

Do I think the current society is better because of anti-discrimination legislation? Yep.

Do I think we have got a bunch of jumped mandarins who are fully paid up members of the thought police? Yep.

I think the only way of dealing with those people, who lets face it, are merely exercising a different form of discrimination, is the same way as we deal with the others.

It can be done. Our forebears on the Suffolk/Essex border did get away with burning the Witch finder General, Hopkins, as wait for it, ....a witch.

Not many volunteers for the post after that. Not that I'm advocating burning over zealous council officials (or Northern monkey), just that they need to be opposed.

It's amazing how much they annoy people generally. The phrase, 'interfering do gooder', has it's genesis with these holier than thou individuals, and they're inverted discrimination. It's the type of behaviour that pushes people in the direction of those who really want to discriminate against others for the worst reasons, because they can point at the idiotic behaviour of these officials and say, 'we won't let that happen'. This inverted discrimination in effect makes the BNP look rational. It needs to be dealt with as part of the struggle against them.

@Bill

Too true. On the one hand we meet die-hard racists (as I did yesterday when I met a pal of one of the BNP candidates).
Then on the other we have the positive discrimination inquisitorial squad.

With common courtesy being beyond either of them.

On LL "New" Labour (though I am sure there are saner members of new or Old Labour) members have accused me of being "anti-women", "Old Labour/old lefty" (whatever that is supposed to mean and is that something to be ashamed of if I was or am?), prejudiced against women (for debating and disagreeing with one), abusive etc etc.

As often or not it is by blunt comment or clumsy implication.

It is amusing listening to MP's force out the term "New Labour" for fear of recrimination by their peers they really are a weak and spineless lot. In Parliament you have to be a member of the New Labour Party, not the ordinary Labour Party. Not quite sure why or how such a partial shallow branding can be used in such a mindless manner, but that is the weak mentalitity behind this and certainly does not stand up to any form of intellectual, logical questioning or scrutiny.

It is certainly not the ingredient for a broad base and representative coalition, it is more akin to cultism or freakery by conformity.

Schoolyard stuff employed by people who went from school straight to Parliament and missed out on the challenges, fun, disappointment of a rich and varied life most of us have enjoyed.

I see these geeks and freaks everyday and tend to steer away from them, with their officious nature, briefcase and arrogant demeanor. Holding onto to the details of their last pointless meeting as if they actually had in their possession state secrets.

The things people do to feel important. It really is amazing.
Fortunately I am sticking to the more pragmatic and down to earth elements of the Party here in Barking whose strategy is good manners and whose tactic does not include pre-judgement or labelling.

You asked how I would stop someone slamming the door and now I have an answer for you.

You ask them this "Why are you so angry with Labour?"

Then my friend you get invited in and get to share mutual frustrations, address outstanding problems and begin to battle for a vote.

It is a long process but I have taken the time factor into account. So far I have been able to (with support from the other candidates (one is a Councillor) sort out some of their problems straight away.

You asked how I would stop someone slamming the door and now I have an answer for you.

You ask them this "Why are you so angry with Labour?"

I knew you'd come up with something and that is a good one. I really do wish that there were more like you Ralph, particularly up this end of the country. Some of the claptrap I've heard recently from our local lot makes me wonder whether they've attended a course on how not to engage a member of the public, with an evening class in avoiding any serious question in favour of talking about the weather.

I attended a council meeting recently and I couldn't believe the petty minded attitude present in there. I was sat with a reporter from the local rag and I explained I was new and asked whether this was a typical meeting, he just laughed and said it was mild. The whole meeting involved people trying to make a point, but realising half way through that they were talking complete rubbish. It didn't stop them, oh no, I sat through almost 3 hours of it. Nothing was resolved, issues were refered and it seemed that the main goal of the meeting was to decide to have another meeting to discuss it all again.

In stark contrast, I sat in on another meeting with a local community action group and everything they said was not only relevant, but concise and interesting. Ironically the focus of the meeting was the lack of support from the council, the endless delays because of ticks in boxes and the difficulties of finding who is responsible for what.

Good to hear you're making progress though Ralph, as I've said before, you've got far more patience than I have.

Could I ask, is there an issue with threaded comments now? I can't seem to get it to work in any browser and it is a bit confusing to follow now.

@Bill

With reference to the browser, possibly as I remember Nils Boray saying he had issues. Mine seems to be ok now.

Sounds like you have a crap bunch of councillors. Our meetings back in Norfolk had direction and delays only occured where we had to wait for specific expert advice.

I guess I am very lucky as I do tend to end up with the seriously nicest people to campaign and work with.

No guraentees though. It does not take up that much patience though sometimes it does drain the energy somewhat. I am amazed at the cases coming my way, but then two of the councillors in this Ward are BNP and they do diddly squat as they need people to be angry and upset to propagate their own party mechanic.

I reckon if I clear the case work by the time of the election I will have done more for these people than many Councillors do with their entire lives.

Good on the military though for kicking me up the backside Bill. I am results driven and though I cannot deliver a hell of a lot I can sort out some issues that should never have been long-standing Ward problems.

Hi Whoever is modding

Is anyone modding?

Danny

Alex is probably enjoying a rare night off from the LL.

It's not really that offensive Danny, it just highlights the attitude and response of some, a valuable insight for those who need to see what Labour has become in the minds of a few.

I am having a rare weekend of slow activity on LL, speaking at the PRogressive London conference, canvassing for my council campaign and going to the match!

A bit more later.

Again, welcome home, Bill!

Danny what are you talking about? The Labour party does not have Nazis and homophobes in it.

Hi Alex

There is a offensive post on this thread , Please remove ?


Danny

Hi quiz

And there are 9/11 truthers in our party (EU), You must be Mr Balls with the hate you post , Alex i would have reported it but no option , So i hope that in refelction you remove the post .

Danny

Alex

I had verification that people "are" listening to Labour.

Today while shopping I exchanged some pleasantries with another woman eg "Hello! "lovely fresh sunny day", & went on to discuss the bargains the store had in their exclusive range.

We were checking out sizes & laughed maybe too small for us & it was then we discussed Mrs Thatcher's diet of eggs in large amounts, & how it got her fit.
I gathered from her reaction she wasn't Thatcher friendly!

We agreed that the amount of eggs that Mrs Thatcher had eaten must have scrambled her brain & curdled her heart as her ideology of putting all her eggs in the Monetarist basket created a greedy single minded society.

We introduced ourselves properly & I learned her name was Jeanette & she had been at a meeting with our Tory Council this morning & informed them they were failing her local area.

Jeanette expressed her fears for the NHS if the Tories win the election. She was a supporter of Gordon Brown & her words "he is a man with a good heart & is a good Prime Minister" &
it's disgraceful to witness the media supporting Cameron & Tories.

It's always nice to meet people but a lot more special when you are like minded in pursuing the same aim of returning a Labour Government for a fourth term.


cheers

Yep, I'm listening to Labour and I don't like what I'm hearing Elizabeth. Does that matter though? Is anyone really that bothered?

As far as your nice chit chat about Thatcher, you do know she was ousted out of office over 20 years ago don't you? You do know that Labour have had ample time to counter anything she may have done and make a real difference to the people of Britain? You know for instance that you can't blame Thatcher for the next 10 years? I'm only asking because many people I speak to of a Labour-mind seem to think that Thatcher = Conservative and by simply mentioning her name it justifies anything that Labour want to do, whether it be spending stupid amounts on Trident, or trying their very best to force ID cards on the nation. All Thatchers fault you know. It is, all her fault!

More the tories "campaign" - wonky policies no-one likes, mad commitments to second recession, pushing Tory Couns into alliance with homophobes & nazi sympathisers - the better appreciated Labour and Brown will be.

Yeah because that really helps doesn't it, childish name calling of the opposition. Lets tag them with homophobia and bring in a political party that was squashed 60 years ago and that will win over the electorate.

When are you going to get it into that head of yours that you don't win by rubbishing the opposition? Labour have proved the point again and again, more prominently in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Rubbishing the opposition, name-calling, its child-like politics that the British people do not buy.

I don't particularly want a Conservative government, but what other option have people got at the moment? Money grabbing parasites that mascarade behind a red rose, pretending to have some values for the sake of winning an election. Great! Thats what we want isn't it?

It doesn't matter what the Conservatives do, it doesn't matter how flakey Cameron is, what does matter is whether you can convince the majority that Labour isn't lying as it did the last time we had an election. Any idea how many election promises were broken? Any clue to why people like me have no faith in GB?

Thats the problem for the most part, article after article appears ignoring the elephant in the room and it is completely demoralising. I would have campaigned this time round, I'd have got behind certain candidates and worked really hard for them, but Labour have made it impossible. I'd have to disregard my personal beliefs and more so, I'd have to sell my soul to the cash-hungry idiots who really do think that people like me can be bought with empty words.

I can't bring myself to vote for Cameron, no matter what he says, but I definately can't vote for Brown. The guy is the political equivalent of General Custer minus the leadership qualities. He'll march straight into battle knowing his people are ill-equiped and will probably be slaughtered, but unlike Custer, he'll survive the battle and live out his days on a nice fat pension. Maybe he's more like a banker?

Does no one realise what Labour have become just to stay in government? Am I still banging my head against a brick wall because it bloody well feels like it!

@ Bill Dewison
No, you're not banging your head against a brick wall. I think most of us would like Labour to revert to some semblance of an ethical party. In the absence of that, I feel that I have to take into account the potential to do better. We all have our limits of tolerance, of course: I couldn't possibly support the party if Blair as well as Campbell are involved in the campaign. Those two out of the way, I can see myself supporting the party for the potential to do good. I hear all the projections of the obliteration of Labour. IMHO, if the Tories win, there will need to be something of an opposition to moderate the extremes of the Tories.

Oh, don't get me wrong, if the Conservatives win there will definately be a need for a strong opposition, but from where? Would GB provide a good solid grounding for Labour to fight as an opposition party? He can't even cope now from a position of power as Prime Minister of the country.

My problem with politics at the moment is I'm torn. Alex here at the LL is providing a great sounding board for the Labour-minded and is really putting the effort in (which reminds me about the whole donation thing, must do that) and then there is Ralph. I've met Ralph, I've argued with him, I've laughed with him and you know what, he's the type of guy you want representing you in Parliament. He's the type of guy that won't take the usual guff, he'll fight his corner and he'll do it with intelligence and integrity. I'd vote for that, I'd vote for Alex and I'd vote for others here... people who I may disagree with on some levels, but I know for a fact they are decent people who would make a difference.

Then there is the other side. Balls (for want of a better word), Darling, Harman, the Miliband twins and GB. They are about as much Labour as I am Conservative. They ooze arrogance and they stand there with the bare faced cheek expecting the voter to believe them when they have been shown to be liars and cheats. Harman drives away from the scene of an accident and gets a tiny little fine. What would happen to a member of joe public? What would happen if we, the public, defrauded the tax man like many Labour politicians did? What would happen to people like Blears on civvy street?

See my problem? One the one hand really decent people who will make a difference, on the other the likes of GB, Purnell and Mandleson. Who can honestly hand on heart say that GB is a good politician? Go on, one person tell me how that bloke is good enough to be a politician let alone be Prime Minister of this country?

"I've met Ralph, I've argued with him, I've laughed with him and you know what, he's the type of guy you want representing you in Parliament."

Ralph annoys the hell out of me. I want to see someone like him on my ballot paper but voting for him is implicitly supporting Brown and Mandelson et al. The pros of having a Labour MP are outweighed by the cons of having a Labour government.

John Bull writes:

"This means that probably the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives would form a temporary coalition, relegating Labour to opposition."

There is one thing that the Liberal Democrats would want from a deal with another party and that is electoral reform.

The Conservative party is very unlikely to deliver that, but Labour can do this.

Personally I am a Labour member but I would love to see a system of PR in the UK westminster elections and so if we do have a hung parliament real electoral reform might be a great benefit from it.

PR results in coalitions with fudged manifestos and unclear strategies, which have no mandate. I prefer the first past the post system where we have a clear mandated manifesto. If at the end of the term, like today, we think that they were useless then we can kick them out. Just look how well PR has served Italy and Ireland.

@ Roger J Davies,

"Just look how well PR has served Italy and Ireland."

Anything to say about Germany?

Yes Mr. Barnard, the German Bundeslaender have considerable powers and the national Gov. has been blighted with coalitions going nowhere fast. Just look at the last one, the Social Democrats have marginalised themselves due to being seen to be too close to the policies of that excellent leader Angela Merkle. I do not think you can compare Germany with Italy, Ireland or the UK. Chancellor Merkle also had the task of rebuilding the economy after the Schroeder spending binge, there is our parallel.

@Peter B, Roger,
I wasn't aware it had done much harm to Ireland either.

The recent economic disaster was pretty much something that no government of a country that size was ever going to be able to deal with. The fact it's a coalition is irrelevant.

Patrick James - me too - member of LP, but longtime supporter of PR.

On the article itself, I think that we are very much looking at a hung parliament unless proven otherwise. I think the reason for this is unfortunately 'time for a change' and a perception that "the Tories can't do that much worse can they?" Everyone knows that I'm voting Labour, but I think that unless something major comes up Cameron is coasting towards at least a hung parliament, but there's no doubt that it will be 'nail biting'. My reasons for this over the last few weeks are explained on my personal political blog: http://shibleyrahman.blogspot.com

@Shibley

Yes, we are at the very least in for some entertainment as we see those MP's we dislike disappear (hopefully forever) and those we want to keep succeed (how many of the latter lol!)

It really does feel like 1997 again, except there is no hopeful new party around this time.

@Ralph precisely
funnily enough, I've just commented on Facebook how I would like some of those narcissistic ones disappear 'for good', so that they can spend more time with their Boards of Directors.........

@Shibley

Yes I think we see eye to eye here. I promised Charles Clarke, that when the Liberals take his seat, that I will toast him with a good glass of Cabernet. I shall not drink any alcohol until election night.

Very important to get your priorities right!

It is weird though. I have never taken pleasure from losing people in my own party before during an election.

I guess corruption and treachery gets me like that.

To me Labour has to be better, has to be cleaner (if I was a Tory it would be the same) and so those who are revolting and bring massive if not historic infamy to my party, well they are fair game. I just wish they were broke and going on the dole.

I'll keep on wishing ;)

It's as if Labour at some fatal stage took it for granted to be in Government; the public is very good at diagnosing this, investigating it and managing it.

@Shibley

Agreed.

I love canvassing and meeting people, it is cool. Even when they are angry I like to listen to them. Most of them are very forgiving but they know when they have been "had" by politicians and they have a very good and keen memory.

Honesty has done nothing on the doorstep but serve me well. It does not guarentee anything for me, but does permit me to help them if they have any problems and that, to me is the whole point of being a candiate in an election.

I am lucky to be in a solid team and enjoy the support of my fellow candidates in this.

Yes Ralph. There's no doubt at all that you're not included in the 'scope' of my disgruntlement. Ironically, Tony Blair is being pillared for what many think to be an illegal war, but he took the UK to war because he was convinced it was right. He is strongly disliked in some quarters for this. Other people in Labour are simply disliked because they seem to be self-serving, selfish, career-minded individuals. I don't find tthat the problem is that Labour has lost its 'socialist soul'; but simply that Labour behaved as if they were here-to-stay like-it-or-lump it, and you can put up with our new chosen one, Balls, Milliband or Johnson, whether you like him or not. Soon Labour may find that a sufficiently large amount of people don't want them to govern at all, and that's when taking government for granted will really hit home. It's just a matter of months now, but keep up the good work Ralph.

Hi Bill, agree with your entire post, and what can we do about it vote for Cameron who wants to be Bliar, it would be hilarious if we were not standing on the edge of the precipice.

Hello Dave
not sure what NAB was/ all I do know is my Mother a single Parent in the early 60s worked her fingers to the bone cleaning to put food on the table. It doesn't feel that long ago and that is why when I look at the whole Benefit and Tax Credit culture it repulses me, as the people mainly paying for it, come from a working class background.

You're right Phillip. Labour had everything to play for when they were elected. They had a willing business community, an eager population and the hopes of millions. All they needed to do was encourage and create a new British industry to couple with the minimum wage, the whole country would have a solution to the problems of the previous 20 years.

What have they done? Wasted hundreds of hours on sideline issues such as fox hunting, pumped billions into non-wealth generating schemes, hired half the population to do pointless tasks and thats before we get to over a thousand new laws which have made matters worse rather than better.

The Labour MPs have cushioned themselves really rather nicely from the nightmare they've subjected everyone else to. Many have become property millionairres, others have tidily secured themselves with industry jobs that require little more than a monthly board meeting for a 6 figured salary. Even now, just before what could be the biggest election defeat in history, we still have Labour MPs making pathetic little sideline quips, like charging those who give a firm handshake with assault.

The New Labour project doesn't need to just end, it needs to be stamped on and buried beneath the ground, never to see the light of day again. Labour needs to regain its identity and realise who they represent. There is nothing wrong with fighting for those in a minority, but if you're running a country you have a duty to the entire country, every man, woman and child. What you don't have a duty to do is infiltrate and disrupt every waking hour of the people of this country. Nor a duty to tell good decent people they should hand over their entire lives to a database for so-called security reasons. I could go on for hours, but you get the idea.

I 100% agree Phillip, they should all hang their heads in shame, but it won't make the blindest bit of difference, the merrygo round will continue as there are always be those who will follow a colour rather than common sense. Those who trash another colour just for the sake of it rather than listen to some of the ideas being tabled. Unfortunately no one in politics is talking sense at the moment and not one of them have a single clue how to solve the problems of this nation. Ask them how to line their own pockets though, they have hundreds of ideas.

Problem is, Bill, that I'm not sure your sort of Labour party would represent me any more than New Labour. Who do 'they' represent?

Good question Mike and to be honest, I haven't a clue any more.

Same can be said for the Conservatives really, who do they represent?

Politicians on all sides seem to represent one group really well though, themselves. It never ceases to amaze me how they manage to land themselves in well-paid positions when they've had enough of politics (or we've had enough of them) and it is always a full house when MPs pay is being discussed.

Who do you think the current Labour Party represent?

I think most MPs do not have the qualifications or world experience to run a rural COOP, their views are dictated by Party, because Party ensures they stay on the gravy train. Somehow we have to forge greater independence for MPs and we need to scrutinise their CVs more closely. It is often said that the current batch of back-bench Labour MPs are the most supine ever and act like a herd of donkeys. Well if the Tories win the next GE, we will be saying the same of their back-benchers, but noting that there are more pretty Jennies amongst the herd. There seems to be little blue water between the Parties with everyone claiming to represent the majority of the voting populace that considers itself as middle class. How anyone can get out of bed and knock doors for any of the Parties is beyond me, it must be in the blood as it surely is not in the head.

as there are always be those who will follow a colour rather than common sense.

There are a few here.

Hi Ralph, your fight against the local BNP candidate is an honourable cause, and if you truly believe fighting them from a Labour platform will help achieve that aim then I would say thats an honourable position.
However due to Nu Labour Policies is why the local people have voted BNP in the first place, this must be a hard position to defend on the doorstep, but I do wish you well.

If we all put our Political Ideals on hold and used this lesson to kick out every sitting MP surely that would be a good place to start? the message would be loud and clear and our so called Political Parties may actually have to start acting on our behalfs if they wish to rule us again.

I agree changing the Parties from within would be the preffered choice of many, however I worry that the corruption at every level of Goverment and the Big Business behind them will never allow us to take control.

The Global Market is going to suck whats left of Great Britian. We will become a Nation of Part Time Workers and asking for hand outs from the EU which has destroyed huge swathes of our Industry.
Through ridiculous Policies the EU has destroyed our Fishing Waters, our Farmers and now the yhave their sights aimed at the City. We will be dragged into the Euro as the Pound will be worthless and will then see the rest of our lives dominated by an EU Ruling Elite who have a 1000 years of History to pay us back for.

Roger my upbringing in the 19603 was also tough and the values of the working class were about improving one self and looking after their families. We believed in the lesson that through hard work you got dignity, the ability to earn to take care of ourselves with little State Aid.

We now have the worse nightmare and its called Benefits. No one other than those that truly need our help should receive money for nothing. The Underclass are trapped in a spiral of Poverty and twisted morality, spawning endless children to receive their State Houses and endless Benefits.

Nu Labour have pumped in Billions robbed from us on middle incomes £20K - 50K with almost 50% taxes and the problem increase.
With the recent report stating that even after the Billions that have been poured in, the gap between rich and poor has widened, Social Mobility has shrunk and State Education is throwing 20% of kids out on the streets with no way of working or competing in the real world, so destined for menail work, a life on benefits and crime.

We call ourselves a decent society when we allow this to continue. H Harman declares the way to fix it is more State intervention, more Benefits, this is the problem foisted on us by do good Rich people who have no respect for money because they were born with it or became an MP and have no idea what the working class need. I will tell you what it is, Tough Love, by trapping people in the benefits system will never improve these peoples lives or allow the majority to better themselves.

Politicians who continue propping up this charade should hang their heads in shame.

@ Phillip Wells. I don't quite remember it like that. There seems always to have been a division of the 'working class' into various fragments: the 'respectable' and the 'rough'; the 'skilled' (labour aristocacy) and the unskilled. On my estate, there were plenty of families which lived off the NAB. They were frowned on by the working families, but they were happy to live off the NAB.

But what sort of constitutional reform will enable you to do that.
As Boris Johnson pointed out in a debate with Alan Johnson.
In 103 post war elections in six European countries that use a form of PR it resulted in a change of government just on just six occassions.
Now if we want to use an election as a means of kicking, out a government the only system that will work is FPTP!

@Wycombe Wanderer

I did say fundamental not superficial electoral reform designed to give more politicos jobs.
I wrote an article on this site about one suggestion. I have yet to meet a member of the public that seriously dislikes the idea.

The sad fact is that the government has shelved the constitutional reform bill and the Wright proposals. They would have been a start. The independence of select committee chairs would have been an important movement. The executive is too large - too much patronage. It should be severely curtailed - numbers of posts diminished. Those internal reforms are absolutely vital to begin the process of renewal. Sadly, they have been abandoned. Will the Tories revive them? I doubt it. I expect them to use the same mechanisms to extend the tentacles of the executive.

Hello Ralph

a very thoughtful letter that I would find hard to disagree on most points. I have read many of your posts and agree on many even though we are on completely different Political side, but thats the crutch of my point. I believ from your posts that you are a dignified and honest man who wishes to do the best for your local people. I believe from your posts that you are an intelligent and honourable man. These traits should lead you to the same place many here are commenting on. As long as we continue to put an X against LabLibCon candidate you are voting for the status quo, and that is why I beleive that when people argue and fight over a Political dogma rather than fight to rid us of these thieving incompetent leeches, nothing ever changes for the good, othe rthan a few scraps they throw from their plates.

@Phillip

Thank you for your kind comments.

It is difficult to say anything substantial at the moment. Everyone now knows that many of our MP's are clearly mad. Even when given the advice to save their own jobs, in pride they continue as they are.

Is it any wonder that many people can no longer distinguish between them and Nick Griffin?

Even before the expenses event I soon realised there was a massive problem in this country (after returning to Civvie life) there was a substantive change. I spoke to Jessica Asato about it recently in an email regarding a "general theme" which you are highlighting particularly well.

Like many politicos Jessica thinks I am ambarking on philosophical guesswork. However anyone with any kind of genuine human empathy can see what is happening and indeed, what may happen.

It really is not rocket science and is entirely curable.

I think for the moment I shall sit back and watch and just deal with the BNP in Barking. I cannot get an independent seat with any hope of victory or in fact with any hope of reforming anything.

It has to happen within the Party structures. They have to change, because if they do not, change will eventually be forced upon them. You only have to open a history book.

Should the economy decline the public anger will seek a focal point. It will not be the Unions as they have been shut-off, it cannot be via any other legitimate Party as they are fully corrupted.

Where do people turn Phillip?

Things are not yet so terrible, but we really are at a sensitive time politically, socially and economically, and that sir, is a very bad place to be.

In the meantime I will continue to help people during these next three months in the name of democracy, who knows? I may one day find Parliamentary political allies in the Labour Party with courage, idealism and the independence of thought to join me.

So far: none.

@ Phillip Wells

Phillip, you are absolutely correct.

@ Roger J. Davies

Roger, there is little doubt that we will re-enter recession two weeks before the election. Very very difficult for Labour to put a positive spin on that...

Q2-10 figures will come out two weeks before election day. The year started with a freeze up that caused many lost days of work. Many companies have complained that January has been thin. Scrappage scheme at an end and VAT back up. Could be zero growth in the first quarter of this year, I wonder how many votes that will attract? I wonder what people will think about the stimulus package then?

If anyone can anyone say spending billions on various schemes as well as printing 200 Billion pounds to achieve a 0.01% growth figure is a good thing, obviously has no understanding of Economics.
Printing money, QE or call it what it really is, Devaluation of every Pound in our pocket is storing up Inflation and we are already paying for the consequences of a weak Currency, with high fuel and food costs. For a Country that no longer exports very much but instead consumes from the rest of the world means the price of everything is going to rise.

If Inflation rises then the Bank of England will have no choice but to start increasing interest rates and then we will see the real devestation that has been held back by this Goverments refusal to deal with the problems and endanger us all in a vain hope of re election. H

Cameron today is saying that he will not cut overal spending by that much, what a prat, a Conservative who wants to ape Labour, Our Ruling class have shown they think we are all mugs and will pay through a raft of new taxes to pay for the complete and utter incompetence of our MPs.

I like many other Business owners will tell you how we have survived over the last two years, we laid of staff, cut hours in quiet periods, cut every expenditure that was not essential to the business and hankered down in hope that by now we would see a return to growth and confidence that would continue. What we see is another 2 - 3 years off tough trading ahead. So we will now review our businesses again and a fresh culling of Staff will take place. So I will be surprised if we see the Unemployment figures rise over the coming months.

At the same time in the Public Sector, Another 250,000 people have been employes, wages on average rose 3.8% this year. Every Public Sector Union is threatning Strikes if the Goverment dares touch the wages, hours, conditions to save money. So the bloated Public Sector is now spending almost 50% of GDP and racking up huge debts such as the 175Billion overspend this year.

We are currently paying 40Billion a year in Interest whilst rates are low, if rates rise and the Pound continues to fall, the cost of servicing our debt could double. Then we will see slash and burn Policy of the 70s or huge Tax Rises.

What we all need to do is teach our so called intelligent ruling class a lesson in Democracy like never before.
Every voter in this Country needs to finally stand up and say enoughs enough. We should all vote for our Local Independent Candidate, sweep every stinking MP from the House and replace them with MPs who will rule on our behalf and not the Corporations who have stolen our Parties from us all.

Every member of the Public who never bothers to vote because they know whoever wins, their live will not improve, and those of us who have seen our Politics derided to gutter level, where its ok for our MPs to lie and steal from us with abandon. Where our Public Servants break the law or prove they are incompetent wasting Billions, refuse to stand down and take responsibility for their actions, and they address each other as Honourable Member!

I read the posts on LL with hope and despair, I see each side fight over a bone about who is worse, and as they are too busy fighting they cannot see what is so obvious to the rest of us, none of them are worth your vote.

Wake up and smell the stink of the ruling class, the rich get richer the poor get poorer. The whole cess pit is corrupted to Big Business which is why no matter who rules, the raping of the enviroment will continue, the underclass will continue to grow, our MPs will continue to lie and cheat and Taxes will rise.

Well said.

I linked to your comment at the HPC forum, with a thread on voting independent:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=135741

@Phillip Wells

I wish your solution in electing independents was a good one, sadly there are as few guarentees there as each independent will also have their own agenda. There is only one way to "regulate" the conduct and composition in Parliament. We cannot regulate the conduct within our own Parties due (I intend to try to even if it is in vain) to a collapse in proper democratic conduct and balances.

Constitutional reform as I keep on saying is needed. If you examine the conduct of the vast majority of the public during the banking crises and the expenses saga (still going on - unbelievable) it has been exemplary.

The conduct of MP's has been worse than juvenile (no offense to most juveniles who I am sure are very well behaved).

What seems to have happened it that the majority of people have grown up (more information freely available which educates us) and the MP's have regressed into band of naughty school children, ignorant and with no in-depth understanding of the issues people face every day in their lives.

Many of them do not even bother with case work and use allowances to pass on the work to a crap paid graduate along with false promises they cannot guarentee.

Fundamental political reform means Constitutional Reform There is no getting around this. Take away the the massive government contracted corruption and the expenses and you will take away the MP's whose ambitions and greed far exceed their abilities, they will go somewhere else to fill their pockets. They are clearly not the best people for the job. They are more often then not extremley arrogant, lack genuine people skills and allow their personal jealousies and ambitions blind them to reality.

What I term as "common courtesy" on the doorstep, political geeks define as a strategy or technique as the very idea of it is beyond them completely. I can substantiate this point and will go into greater detail after the General Election.

But they really are freaks and weirdos.

Genuine people tend towards taking a little pride in helping others and are approachable and discuss politics in a straight manner with people as I am expressing myself to you now. I never realised how few politicians can actually do this.

The Parties really have to sort themselves out in a big way. The reaction on the doorstep is not at all good. It is taking me three times as much time dealing with people than it has before in all the other elections I have been involved in.

It is very time consuming but very necessary.

I am terribly sorry you have had to and may well have to lay people off. It is heartbreaking to read about and I sincerely share your worries. Along with the majority of angry people in this country I am absolutely disgusted with the lack of vision and thought given to our economy I have witnessed over the past thirty years (most of my life) and the damage done to society in the name of political expediency, worse still the sheer lack of decent values and beliefs that unite the vast majority of us and permits us all to share our genuine concerns.

As I said I really believe change has to be fundamental and inclusive of the people who care about this country, because it is and it's people are getting a very shabby deal at the moment.

As I have said to Alex, should I lose in the Council elections (if I am elected I will remain with the Labour Party) I will send an ultimatum to Labour HQ and the NEC to end corruption at all elected levels by creating a strict and applicable code of conduct.

Interesting post Phillip, reached a similar conclusion recently.

Considering the real costs of this recession and the time it will take to repair the damage to SMEs, it'll be all the more interesting to see how the general public deals with striking public sector workers.

What is annoying me at the moment is this backwards election campaigning that is relying on the population having the memory capacity of the common house fly. Are the Conservatives really trying to assert themselves as economic saviours? And the Labour Party, the Party of fairness and equality? Really? Both of the main political parties have lost their identity whilst squabbling over the middle ground, even though the middle ground isn't where the problems lie.

Well, I've just been a customer of a small British business - Novatech - but apparently it doesn't qualify, so I might as well have just gone to the High St. and bought from an oligopoly, it seems. So much for trying to help in the limited means that I have at my disposal.

You wouldn't have got away with that on the old 5 live site mr postles but thanks I've stored their details and may be getting a new pc soon.
I'm sure novatech are gratefull for your support anyway!

@Wycombe Wanderer

Always glad to oblige a small British company, even if some others regard it as 'cuckoo land.'

Dave Postles,

Yes 'cuckoo land'. You tried to tell us how brilliant you were because you supported a British Manufacturer. I made the point that Novatech was a retailer, I pointed out that you were wrong. Just like the PLP you cannot admit you are wrong. Have you considered the PLP you would be a class 1 fit.

The last time I looked DSGi the UK's largest retailer of electricals employed 1,000s as does Comet and JLP. Why should Novatech get special treatment?

Well said phillip, a pretty accurate and damning observation of the political class on both sides of a pretty thin divide at present.
I make no secret that i would like to see massive reductions in state spending and consequently massive reductions in the governmlents tax take.
There needs to be a fundamental review of what all of us expect from government, frankly Given past performance, I expect very little from them, therefore i ^want a considerably lower bill from them for their useless monopoly 'services'.

I have long been of the view that Politicians are generally incompetent, so I will always vote for those that promise to do as little as possible and spend as little as possible. I came from grinding poverty, from the bottom of the bottom of 1940s society and find now as an OAP I am sitting in the upper quartile. How? Education and jobs. Social mobility was once possible, many of my generation moved on and improved themselves despite their being little or no welfare. Whilst I was born into the "working classes" I now consider myself largely classless, the only group that makes me distinctly uncomfortable is the political class.
Jobs and education, education and real jobs.

If the Conservatives don't win a working majority and we end up with a hung parliament, this might actually be worse for the Labour Party overall. A Labour Party led by Gordon Brown will NEVER be able to for a government in coalition with another party: the Liberal Democrats have already said they don't intent to prop up what's left of the current government post election.

This means that probably the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives would form a temporary coalition, relegating Labour to opposition. Such a coalition would probably end up being unstable leading to an early general election which the Labour Party probably could not afford to fight properly so soon after the 2010 general election. Net result: the Conservatives returned to office with a majority and the Labour Party still in opposition but bankrupt. New Labour are screwed whatever happens.

But it is the marginals that will determine who will be the next government. The marginals. These general polls tell us if Cameron will get a landslide or not.

Richard,

You are right, the marginals will decide the result. It is imperitive you keep driving your messages and posts everywhere you can Richard. You are doing Labour a massive favour.

Alex, my feeling is (and this is certainly backed up by my conversations with others) that the Tories are going to win by a country mile, and most of the antagonism against the government is focused on Gordon Brown & Co. The public do not like him, and they object to the way that he became leader. The dislike his inability to admit to mistakes and his plotting. He is a liability.

If that were not enough, Brown came up against a new problem yesterday, and it is this: As I watched and listened to Blair speaking, I couldn't help but to compare him to Brown. Why did the Labour party remove an undeniable media star and replace him with Brown, who can barely articulate a credible argument? The comparison is stark, and pretty shocking. How could you do that to yourselves, and the country?

Would Labour win the next election if Blair was still in charge? Probably. Are they going to win with Brown in charge, Errr.... Not a hope.

I have written this several times before, but it is worth saying it again: Labour are going to lose, and deserve to do so, because the PLP was too weak to stand up to Brown and is cabal. Even when they realised what a disaster he was, they could not find the moral fibre to get rid of him. Had they done so early enough, a good number of them would not have to look for other employment after the election. The impending humiliation is all the PLP's doing. They are about to get their just deserts, and I shall enjoy watching it unfold.

RalphBaldwin:

So it's true. You CAN fool some of the people ALL of the time.

Do you really think that a 0.01 per cent "growth: rate signals a recovery in q country has the largest deficit in its history with no manufacturing or agriculture base to generate the export to every repay it is a "recovery". Do you really think that 0.0.1 per cent growth massaged by a temporary drop in VAT, the lowest interest rates in history, and a cobbled-together "scrappage scheme (so we could by more Renaults, Peugeots, Honda's, Toyotas, and Nissans) indicates a return to any kind of economic normality?

Wait until we go the way of Greece sometime later this year when inflation and a tanked pound finally round off things.

By the way. Lawson is 78 years old. Let's hope you still sound as lucid and have all your own hair when you reach that milestone.

I'd suggest the electorate will take Lawson's maturity and experience any day over Ben 'Boy' Bradshaw. Dear God, the man is so lightweight, QT production team probably had to put weights in his shoes to stop him rising to the ceiling.

@Sam Francisco

No I try to fool nobody.

In answer to your 0.01% you are correct that it is a feeble value, but I would rather have a positive figure than a negative one. Growth or zero growth is better than reduction yes?

But I suspect our economy is in bigger trouble, but I HOPE it is not regardless of the General Election results.

I am very worried about the situation in Britain at the moment and I listened very intently to the last Question Time which I thought was very good.

I am still amazed they put Lawson on there. If he is 78 I would call that very harsh.
As for me I will be lucky to see 50. Tory should have placed somebody on there closer to Cameron, I know WHY they did not, they did not want to answer any questions.

A real sign of weakness this week from the Tory Party.
Amazing really when they have so much to gain.

Ralph

You put FAR too much into the panel choices of QT. When Brown stops dithering and calls an election then you will see the big guns doing nothing else but being on TV.

You are right that our economy is in deep trouble. Some on here seem to be in denial or think they can lie to you. The fact is that any idiot can spend other peoples money and even bigger idiots can spend money they haven't got. We have a prime minister that will be treated harshly in the history books. We won't have Brownism. We will have a decade of uncertainty. If the UK pulls itself out of the mess Labour has created I don't know.

What I DO know is that Labour won't see government power for the rest of the decade. IF by some slim chance they are suicidal enough to get a hung parliament they will still lose power but Brown may be harder to shift.

Labours BEST chance is to go back to the grass roots however if you look at things without partisan allegiance I would say that the Labour movement has really big issues ahead.

In all seriousness I think you are staring down the barrel of Labour becoming totally irrelevant. Everything I see conspires against it - the economy, the union funding, the lack of membership, the massive debt it carries as a party, the reliance on outpost of the UK for MPs, the tories planned cuts in MPs etc etc etc

Its pretty grim and although unwelcome to many ears you really need to ignore those on here that seem to claim that everything is rosy.

@Sam Francisco,
Those Nissan, Honda, & Toyota vehicles are mainly British made, by a British workforce, and supporting a large number of British based suppliers/supplier plants.

Kenneth Clarke spent the other evening making it up as he went along against Mandy.

0.1% growth is low, but then as the scrappage scheme boosted the car market by 20% over the same period last year, I think it should be clear even to the partisanly myopic that without it we would clearly still be in recession.

For your information, Nissan has been running overtime in the Sunderland plant since September and has announced the introduction of another shift just this week. Strangely enough, we've generally not benefited as much from the scrappage scheme as others.

Ralph

The pollsters do report on expected voter turnout (thereby saying how people won't vote), but the main voting figures are based on those who will vote, because non-voters have absolutely no impact on the outcome (unless of course one party's voters abstain in much larger numbers than another party's supporters), which is why abstaining is such a pointless act.

Hi Labourlist

i have mixed views about polls, I have never been asked and none of my friends have ever been asked, I guess the only poll we gaurentee is the election .


Danny

ok It may well be that Alex is correct and the polls will tighten.

In any case the mean average from the last 126 Polls from the release of the expenses period last year are:

Labour 26.3 Tory 40.1 Libs 18.7

Because the latest creep up of the Labour support is still fairly recent and not substantial it has yet to affect the mean average score. Whatever the result though, I would dearly love the pollsters to inform us on how many people will refuse to vote.

I still suspect a 70 seat Tory majority or thereabouts and I did take into account the Angus whatever it is study. I measure all polls listed as I am looking longer term and any blips or minor fluctautions will be diluted, though of course that means any short term recent dramtic change will be better registered by Alex rather than me as the historic data I have drowns it out to an extent.

Surely a graph with time on the horizontal axis is what is required?

Ralph, I have asked this before: what do you mean by "mean average"? If you have simply added up all the results from the 126 polls and then divided by 126 then the result is meaningless. A poll taken a year ago has little effect on the poll in May, yet it will have an effect on the "mean average". A better analysis is a weighted running average, averaging the more recent polls but weighting the later polls more than earlier ones. It is *trends* that are important not *averages*.

Since last summer I have predicted a hung parliament, and I have not seen anything in the last 6 months to make me think otherwise.

@Richard Blogger

Yes, that is what a mean average is.
I take the long-term mean average to compare it with the snapshot taken by Alex.

Whether or not it is relevant will depend upon the relevance of polling itself and whether or not voters vote for short term or long term reasons.

I have never done this before and am interested to see how it will compare with reality.

It is just a curiosity.

The average you mention marries up with the one on the UK Latest Poll website, they do produce that. It really is just an evaluation of stats on my part as I used to work with them, on my spreadsheet I keep a record of both comparisons but I am certainly not offering anyone any certainties where politics is concerned.

Though I share the (after knocking on doors) the deep public disatisfaction with our political unelites who need to be replaced by a currently non-existent or reformed party that is radical and understands the needs of this country and not a pathetic rabble of luvvies who chase cameras for their own vain and pointless careers.

In terms of a Hung Parliament you may well be right and many have been predicting this including Michael Portillo.

Possibly the culmination of our departure from recession, the presence of Eric Pickles and Nigel Lawson on our TV screens as the main face of the Tory Party. All reasonably good news.

Lawson spoke stangely, was he stoned?

I really do not know, a member of the public asked me yesterday as I was canvassing.

Thanks Nigel, that is another Labour voter ;)

Ralph

Sorry are you saying someone has decided to vote Labour because a Lord who isn't even standing as a MP or be part of a incoming government seemed a bit "strange"?

How utterly depressing. This country is stuffed.

Are you suggesting that people voting Tory because a lord, who does not even bother to take part in the legislature and does not pay UK taxes, but bankrolls the party, does not seem a bit strange?

@John Doe

No but there has been a serious absence of any new people around Cameron and I doubt many people know who many of the shadow Cabinet are.

All very odd.

And yet Angus Reed showed a 17% lead which you don't report.

The fact is that we keep getting these wild fluctuations and yet no one seems to be asking why. It could be the polling organisations - some have changed weighting in the last couple of weeks. It could also be general apathy.

From talking to people I don't see great enthusiasm for the Tories but I do see that many (including myself) will vote for them because five more years of Brown is just too much to stomach.

I think the best indication is to have some more polling in the marginals - the last poll showed a very definite swing to the Tories.

Alex I'm also intrigued as to know why you want a hung parliament. Lets say that taking the above the Tories are 15-20 short of a majority. What do you consider would be the implications from a Labour perspective? All I see is the inevitable infighting for the parties new direction and its leadership with the Tories blaming any policy block on Labour who will have a minority of votes especially in England. How would that play with the electorate? If another election was called say within 12 months how would Labour fund it?

I have yet to meet a Labour supporter who in their heart believes Labour can win the election and I find it odd that they see a Tory majority hung parliament in any way desirable

Brown does seem to solicit polarised views. I was talking to (an otherwise intelligent) woman last week and she said "I do not like that Mr Brown". Knowing her well, and knowing that she is a straight forward character I pointed out Cameron's plans to run public health policy based on "behavioural economics" and explained what that will mean. She went quiet about her criticism of Brown.

Cameron will be a disaster for this country and the more we get that message out, the more likely it will be that he will fail to get the keys to Number 10.

@ Richard

I think the problem with Brown, though he was an indispensable part of the Blair/Brown new Labour project, is that without Blair, the grinding machine politics becomes all too apparent. Not only does Brown fail to draw affection from the public, but the activities of his 'boyars' has - from what I've heard - also alienated a large number of his own party. He was feared, but not loved. And once a feared leader falls, there's no one there to help him up.

'behavioral [sic] economics' (as it is a US concept)

nudge, nudge, wink, wink

Osborne is nailing his mast to those colours as well. Just seems like another term for 'incentivizing' to me. Osborne's policy on local government and advertizing looks incredibly strange.

"(as it is a US concept)"

LOL, Dave, you picked up on that too :-) The Tory health policy documents keep using the horrible word "incentivize". Horrible, horrible Americanism, but it does give you a clue about the provenance of the policies.

@ Dave

And of course Sunstein and Thayer, who came up with behavioural economics, are dyed in the wool democrats, who believe in Government intervention. Cass Sunstein even proposed a 'celebrate Tax' day. I wonder if Osborne knows that.

@ Peter

Thaler and Osborne: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/28/we-can-make-you-behave

Joe Doe said "Alex I'm also intrigued as to know why you want a hung parliament."

John I am with you, the removal of Gordon Brown out any cost. A hung parliament.... perhaps thats what the faithfully blinkered think is the best possible path to retaining some semblance of power.

I don't want a hung parlaiment. I working for a victory, of course. I just think it's currently a more likely "result" for Labour at this time.

Alex,

Then you and I are on opposing sides. I wont wish you luck, as I would like to see Gordon Brown totally humiliated for the mess he will leave behind.

@ John Smith

If you want a centre left government NOT led by Brown, then working to push back the Tory lead is probably your best bet.

If Labour lose their majority, Brown will resign. In the advent of a hung parliament, the likelihood of another election quite soon (like 1974) with a new Labour leader is pretty high

So I'd say that Labour still needs your support to keep the Conservative lead well into single digits, and force Labour to rethink its policy and leadership, and bounce back sooner

Peter Jukes,

You see things differently to me. I do not see the election as a vote for Labour, it is nothing of the sort. It is a vote for 5 more years of Gordon Brown. Gordon Brown has said come rain or shine he is staying. He has stated that if he wins, its the full 5 miserable years. That is a prospect that causes me to lose sleep.

This Government are not centre left. They are useless and dysfunctional in every regard (sadly in the name of those who need them the most). Those who want to see them returned are generally in the "We hate the Tories" or "Labour because I really am indoctrinated by mum and dad" camps. That is not an answer the country needs. Labourlist clearly mirrors the views of the country, the posts that get the most comments are those about Tories, it brings out the tribal factions and the disaffected such as myself. The comments on good things are few because nobody believes it. I think know why Alex publishes so many Tories eat babies articles. In fact I have no idea how he does it, he says he is passionate about re electing a Labour Government; well that would be great if they were any good, but they are proven useless. Ask yourself this, Labourlist goes to the trouble of putting together ideas and the response from Mr Miliband starts with sorry for the delay in getting back to you. What does that make you think? I say we are expendable.

Re electing the inept, is suicide for the country. We will see a massive shift away from Labour come the election. When in the privacy of the polling booth people will examine their conscious’s and try to think of New Labour achievements, that will be the acid test and if the 2008 election is anything to go by (Richard Blogger take note) New Labour will quite rightly be crushed.

I WILL NOT vote Tory. I do not see the Brownite cabal as better than the Tories but considerably worse. If my conscious says vote, it will probably be Lib Dem. I am in the Woking constituency and the Tories will win if there is a Monday in the week of the election.

What I am saying is almost a universal truth amongst the beliefs of the marginals. We are on the Titanic heading for the ‘berg. Gordon Brown will go down in history for the wrong reasons. The sad truth is Labour will carry that around its neck for 15 to 20 years.

I am resigned to massive defeat, a clear out and rebuilding properly.

@ Peter J: as a hypothetical question, what do you think GB would do if, having "achieved" a hung parliament, was also able to negotiate a working majority with the LDs: do you think he would resign - or stay on?

@ Jobless

Hmmm. Interesting question. I'm not insider, and really am more passionate about philosophy and ideas than the shenanigans of political manoeuvring.

That the Labour party succeeded in stopping Cameron get a majority will be seen as some kind of minor victory for the party. That its share of the vote shrank so much since the last election cannot help but be seen as a criticism of the Brown administration. In the event of coalition with the LD's it would be harder for Brown to stay on as a kind of caretaker while a leadership contest is prepared, because those cabinet changes will have to be negotiated with an active leader, so oddly a coalition might cement his position.

I don't know. Just guesses. What do you think?

@Peter Jukes

Agree.

Brown would resign the same day if he does not get a majority in seats over the Tories, I think.

Mandelson will come into his own in a hung parliament.

Oh dear, Cameron v. Mandelson ... sniping and petulance against sniping and petulance

Brown will go, I think. Do people expect him to say that, if Labour wins the election, he will resign after two years? He will move on to a genuine international role rather than the honorific role that Bliar has, IMHO.

Very interesting reading.

My own feeling is that as we see more and more of the Conservative party's policies their lead will diminish.

The recent talks between David Cameron and the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland were obviously because Cameron is now planning for a hung parliament. In a hung parliament David Cameron will find it difficult to make deals with the Lib Dems because they are polar opposites in so many areas. So he turns to the Unionists.

Personally I like a later general election than an earlier one because I think that David Cameron is losing his appeal as a leader. The Conservative party has put all their eggs in one basket and the basket is breaking. They are rotten eggs anyway :)