Loading... Please wait...

Poll List: Gap down to 7 points; 82% are unclear on Tory economic policy

PollBy Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

After three polls at the weekend showed the Tory lead being edged down to 9 points, a new ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent shows the lead narrowing again to 7%.

The new poll shows the Tories on 38%, unchanged from last week, with Labour up two points to 31% and the Lib Dems unchanged on 19%.

Translated broadly to a general election the new numbers would result in a hung parliament, with the Conservatives 30 seats short of a working majority on 296 seats, and Labour 20 behind on 276 seats, according to the UK Polling Report's Swing Calculator.

The poll is significant because it vindicates the weekend's improving polling scores for Labour. Moreover, it builds on recent trends; whereas the Tory lead was once consistently around 17%, it is now consistently between 7 and 10%.

Aside from the important topline scores, there are also a couple of interesting sub stories worth noting. First, the poll again highlights David Cameron's difficulty in appealing to women voters: while the Tories are 16 points ahead among men, they trail Labour by four points among women.

The poll also suggests the public have doubts about the Tories’ economic policies. 82% of people (and 82% of Tory supporters) believe the Tories should be clearer over what they would do about the economy.

And only 24% of respondents believe the recession would have ended earlier had the Tories been in power. 69% disagree.

However, while 40% of people say they trust Gordon Brown more than Cameron to help the recovery, 52% do not. Voters are also not yet willing to give Labour credit for the recovery, with only 37% saying Labour can take the credit for getting Britain out of recession.

Follow the polling trends since conference season with the LabourList poll tracker.

Share


Posted on Feb 01, 2010 at 09:51pm


97 Comments · Show / Hide
Leave a comment »   show trash comments ·
Roger? No, thought not.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Elizabeth- thankyou for that.

Roger- still waiting for a reply.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
I see Osbourne is at it again

sayin a vote for tories and budget action will stop a downgrading of our rating, so yet again we see differences because he is implying much bigger cuts.

Wonder how many times he will mention Greece yet our national debt at 79% is I believe not a problem, yet.
ian robathan @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
BBC on the whole gives good value for money, although I only watch its live TV when there is sports on.

BBC news website is the best place you can go for impartial news reporting. Unlike the Telegraph or Guardian who both peddle stories wrapped in their own agendas. Pre-2002 the BBC did seem more friendly to the Labour project, until the build until the Iraq War when they clashed with the Labour leadership.

What is an Ex Tory Graduate? Does it mean someone active in conservative politcs while a student?
Emirates Stadium @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
@ Emirates Stadium

You're just sore because it was the Manchester Guardian.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Very possibly. To give them their due they do pretty good sports coverage too, unbiased by their origins.
Emirates Stadium @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Ludwig- if you are right about Murdoch and Cameron- then God help us all. No wonder the tabloid press is so biased.

But if they touch the BBC, I hope there will be a revolution!
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Roger- who or what are you referring to in your first sentence re cringeing etc?
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Back again for 5 mins.

Mike- I've lived in Australia and spent time in America some time ago.The absence of the BBC and a huge proliferation of commercial channels on the whole led to a dilution of quality and balanced reporting.To put it bluntly- a great deal of crappy channels.
I certainly don't want to go down that road- or in radio.

But if Murdoch and co had their way- we probably end up with Fox News running every aspect of our lives, and infiltrating our consciousness with trivia and far right propaganda.
So- no thanks!
I'll stick with the good old BBC- it's one of the few things left in this country worth fighting for.

I take Diana's point though- journalism persae can be very biased on specific issues, and sometimes gets it badly wrong; I suppose they are constrained by either commercial interest or the institution's agenda/rules.

But generally I think the BBC provides a fantastic value for money service.If we lost it I think there would be a mass exodus!!

Ludwig- hi- your comments are fantastic- hope you are staying for a while?

Sorry have to go again- back later.

Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Hi! Jo/Diane

I traced one of the articles the heading & the content speaks for itself--Definitely major change at BBC ---Big beast Tories & New arrivals---eg. Laura Kuennesberg

@Scent of victory puts PR firms on the hunt for Tory big beasts
o The Observer, Sunday April 19 2009
o James Robinson
As a former head of corporate communications, Conservative leader David Cameron knows the value of PR, and the importance leading corporations place on building relationships with decision-makers. Cameron is now on the other side of the fence, rebranding a party that has its best chance of returning to power for nearly a generation. But the likelihood of a Conservative electi
(...)about the Tories?' has doubled...claim that hiring experienced Tory...at the BBC, which has...of their ex-employers (...)
But the changing political weather is forcing lobbyists, and some big organisations, to change tack. There was some disgruntlement at No 10 last year about new arrivals at the BBC, which has been placing former Conservative supporters in executive roles - such as John Tate, the corporation's new director of policy and strategy - and hiring senior producers on flagship programmes in anticipation of a change of government. Tate, who formerly ran the Opposition Policy Unit, co-wrote the 2005 Tory manifesto with David Cameron.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/apr/19/marketing-pr-conservative-party


cheers
elizabeth curtis @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Is reporting really a problem? Did Iraq not happen then? And Abu Ghraib? What about the 10p tax band? Did the Daily Heil make up the expenses scandal? What about Afghanistan, was that imaginary? Are ID Cards made up?

The BBC has a clear liberal/left bias, and I am not saying that is entirely a bad thing. Private companies (ie the Mail/Express etc) may be nasty but they get to do what they like. 'cos, you know, we don't live in China.

THE New Labour phrase that make my head explode:

Not getting the message across.

We've got the message, we just don't like it, is it that hard to understand?!

Charlie Farley @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
THE New Labour phrase that make my head explode:

Not getting the message across.

We've got the message, we just don't like it, is it that hard to understand?!


Nicely put Charlie and I couldn't agree more. I want a T-shirt with that wording on it.
Bill Dewison @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Lots of things coming up here about ideas we should be developing. - looking for ways forward.

here is something I just did for David's website, to try and help constituents work out what their priorities are. http://www.davidkidney.com/your-manifesto?PublishKey=c24b4413-5e9c-4124-b5dd-fb4678b66cc6 If people want me to do so I can re work that as an article for Alex to put on LL.

I wonder if any of you are aware of this? http://www.power2010.org.uk/votes/index-2?source=voteagaindid&utm_source=power2010&utm_medium=email&utm_content=voted&utm_campaign=2%2F2%2F10
This was the group I was talking about in a post some weeks back.
I think the tools they are developing here are potentially useful.
diana smith @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
I'd very much like you to write an article on that Diana, I would like to know much more about that.

Also very interested in the Power2010 website, I'm going to read some more as I've only skimmed it at the moment.
Bill Dewison @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
@Bill

The Power 2010 website is very good. I just applied to become an activist of this site. Jessica Asato brought it up an LL.

A very welcome development indeed.
Ralph Baldwin @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Reporting is certainly a problem. I had taken Hazico's view that you could pretty well always rely on the BBC, but I have had my confidence severely dented by the reporting of the Stafford Hospital story over the last year.

There have been a number of times when I have challenged both the BBC and press on some of the factual inaccuracies. Spent a lot of time talking to local journalists about it as well. They have now for the most part toned down some of the most questionable assertions, but I am not at all certain that we get get to the point where they are prepared to come out and admit they may have got it wrong! - I will try and do an article on all this at some point. The Inquiry should be published this week.

In defence of journalists, I think they have a pretty impossible job. the 24 hour media and all the pressure that involves means that they have to go for what Elizabeth I think accurately describes as the lazy option. Focus on people and stories, never mind the complex facts.

I have spent a bit of time looking at the guidelines for the press complaints commission. These are part of the problem. It is for instance perfectly OK to print prominently information which you know to be false, so long as it is an attributed quote! That explains many totally unacceptable headlines.

Last year we had the attacks on Bankers and MPs. I think anger with the press cannot be far behind. I find when I talk to people on the doorstep that many of them are quite aware they cannot trust the press.

what we have seen, in the run up to Crewe, and in May and June last year is an astonishing degree of press manipulation of the electorate. It is difficult to know to what degree that is actually controlled by the Conservatives. I don't see it as being in their long term interests. The backlash from an electorate that finds itself duped is not likely to be an easy thing to deal with.

I am trying in a small way to open up an alternative to the local press. www.stafforddirect.ning.com - not sure that i will have time to really make this work now before the election comes.
diana smith @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Bill- great to hear, and so glad you've met up with Ralph.

I'd very much like to catch up with you later- although not sure if today or tomorrow.

Really have enjoyed your comments!

Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hugh, yes that's true, but as far as I'm concerned the BBC is one of the last few remaining vestiges of balanced information and debate- in an age of media and blogispheres being flooded with Murdochian propaganda...

So I'm wondering if the BBC is impartial- why the need to actively promote Tory graduates- it just sounds like some pressure might be being applied?

(Much like we had Murdoch's son attacking the BBC and asking for more commercial channels.)

These are just some questions.

Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
The BBC would seem to be a casualty if the Tories are elected. The problem is: would the electorate in general mind? It would be interesting to have a proper survey. My own direct interest is limited - to the radio - but it is important as a principle that there is an impartial public broadcasting commission. I fear James Murdoch has already arranged something with Cameron.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hazico - "if the BBC is impartial- why the need to actively promote Tory graduates- it just sounds like some pressure might be being applied?"

Because Tories have long held that it's not impartial. You may think they are wrong, but in any case Labour supporters really aren't in a great position to criticise the Conservatives for trying to put pressure on the BBC given the last ten years.
Hugh Pettit @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
I suppose that this summary is partly for Bill, but also for my own interest. His questions stimulated me to try to find the latest numbers of MPs who will be standing down at the election.

Total = 130
comprising 83 Labour, 35 Tory, 7 LibDem

That's a reasonable turnover to change the composition of the house, although it does not really include the top brass and many Labour seats may be lost, of course.

The profiles of Labour's PPCs can be examined at:

www.labour.org.uk/ppc
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Do you not find though Ludwig that the majority who suffer in elections like the one we're about to have are the cannon fodder back benchers who in many cases are actually the good MPs?

The same old faces stay at the top with a few new ones thrown in to change the scenary. The Portillo moments are so few and far between.
Bill Dewison @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
@ Bill Dewison

I couldn't possibly divine whether the 'new intake' will assert their independence in view of their recognizing the folly of the previous generation or listening to the comments here, as some have. I think that we would all hope that they will react against the previous norms and, indeed, they will be constrained by new rules, I guess. They will all have different experiences and there has been some criticism of the background of some on this list. OTOH, I personally am not averse to a bit of youth and idealism, provided that the young people take time to obtain the experience before making too many precipitate moves - it's like taking up a new job (well, that's exactly what it is - one watches and learns for the first six months). You have all mentioned the structural issues: the extension of the influence of the executive, in particular, which we would all like to see diminished. [I think there is also strong support for recall, as you mention]. At this stage, I would be optimistic that lessons have been learned and that the 'new intake' will be honourable, committed, and prepared to assert their independence when necessary. The structural problems need to be addressed.

What will happen to the old guard? Perhaps some of them in their 60s will step aside. We old gits need to have the courage to do that. Referring to the death of the late David Taylor, who was about to step down anyway (I think at age 63), for those MPs who are really conscientious and dedicated, it is an exhausting life and perhaps we should acknowledge that perspective too in the case of those MPs.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Activists and local campaigners are far more relevant, but only if they are listened to. One of the greatest frustrations is the amount of common sense and good ideas that appear here on the LL and although the politicians give a tip of the hat occassionally, there is a senses that they ignore the good advice. You could take that a stage further and say the politicians believe they know best and the people who put them there are ignored for what, in the short term for a politician, is financial gain. Cynical, but possibly true.

My eldest is 11 years old. He went to school on the bus today for the first time on his own, but he'd have prefered to go on his skateboard. Strangely he has just started to play the guitar as well and he proudly tells me that he will be the best. Politically though he disagrees with me quite a lot although I find the hardest thing to explain is the bigger picture. A tough decision now will pay off in the future is my message to him, but he has other ideas. I very much hope all my children take an active interest in politics and I would be over the moon if one of them one day chose to contribute, even in a small way.

Very much the same when it comes to expressing my own experiences and observations, although I have a tendancy to annoy the locals with my constant questioning. I find it hard to go out anywhere without questioning people about their view on politics as Ralph discovered when we met in London. Luckily he isn't shy to ask either and we did get some interesting viewpoints, however brief.

Great believer in the LL, its a place of learning that politicians from all sides should be compelled to read. The wealth of knowledge, the conflicting opinions but most of the all the burning desire of people here for positive change - although I readily admit, I have a very unorthodox way of being involved.
Bill Dewison @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Should labour stay in power for ever then?
Robert Young @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
69% are right! If the Tories had been in power their cuts would have reduced investment and demand, deepening the recession and pushing unemployment even higher.

And if the Conservatives win the coming general election, things could easily decline; the Tories never learn.


.......and replace Gordon Brown with Harriett Harman!
Graeme Kemp @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Just to add- I wonder if the Daily Mail and Sun, Daily Telegraph et al should be actively employing Labour minded journalists too?!

As far as I'm concerned, there has been an incredible right wing bias across the tabloid media/aka Murdoch/Fox News in USA- so God forbid if we have all this at the BBC too.

Hands off our Beeb!
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hazico: "I wonder if the Daily Mail and Sun, Daily Telegraph et al should be actively employing Labour minded journalists too?!"

Surely you can see the difference between the BBC, which has a duty to be impartial as a publicly funded broadcaster and the Mail, Sun and Telegraph, which don't. It's also worth noting that the reason for the right-wing bias in the tabloids is the apparent unwillingness of left-wing readers to actually buy newspapers.
Hugh Pettit @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
1 I've much enjoyed eavesdropping on the conversation between Bill and Jo - very instructive and informative.

2 @ Hugh - 'the apparent unwillingness of left-wing readers to actually buy newspapers.' - that's an interesting observation which I find quite alarming - if that is so, why?
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Ludwig: No idea why - doesn't seem to be replicated in the States, but the circulation figures certainly suggest it is the case: Sun outsells the Mirror close to three times over; same with the Telegraph and the Guardian. New Statesman is dwarfed by the Spectator. Same is true in the blogosphere.
Hugh Pettit @ 25 weeks and 3 days ago
Hands of our Beeb

The use of the possessive is most telling.

The Daily Mail, Sun & Daily Telegraph serve their customers with what they would like to read. They are private businesses. No one forces anyone to read these newspapers.

The BBC is owned through mandatory subscription and it also must represent the public at large; it is chartered to act with impartiality. Not the majority view or the minority view but balanced.

Examples of BBC bias are legion, incidentally of left-wing bias. When Andrew Marr himself goes on the record to claim the BBC is on the liberal left, then you know their political viewpoint is skewed.

If you wonder that the above newspapers hire 'Labour minded' journalists, the BBC advert their positions in the Guardian. Go figure who would be reading those adverts?

As for Fox/Murdoch, again, they paid for by voluntary subscription or advertising. As such they serve their customers. Don't like it, change channel.

At a time when the left-wing press is suffering falling circulation numbers, perhaps even their readership have had enough.
a b @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
"Elizabeth Curtis: "It was widely reported that the BBC would only be recruiting ex Tory graduates""

Not widely enough to make it to the internet it would seem.
Charlie Farley @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi- just popped back briefly.(Is it possible to keep away from LL for long?!)

Bill- really enjoyed the comments, and you raise some incredibly pertinent points.Yes- politicians need to listen and be more involved on the ground- it's not rocket science!
Perhaps that's where the activists and local campaigners could have far more relevance, and a link to MP's?
I think Diana Smith has discussed this in depth, and has a lot of experience working with MP's.

I also enjoyed hearing about your children!(It's incredibly hard work isn't it- 24/7- as well as being a joy.)

Our 10 year old is heavily into skateboarding and the guitar- and very artistic.He's a bit sick of hearing about politics currently though- although said he will definitely vote Labour in years to come! So let's hope the whole "scene" will have improved by then..

Hope to catch up re more specfic points at a later time- although I must explain I'm not what one would call a political pundit or expert- I can only talk of my own experiences and observations.

Elizabeth- if that is true- I find it ridiculous! What was the thinking behind that?!

Do you think there have been complaints we need more Tories at the BBC?!!
Funny- that Ken Clarke was discussing jazz just now on R.4...
could that be a part of the election strategy?(Only joking.)

I guess it's going to be a season of airbrushed clips of politicians in flattering poses, and quite commonly- in their kitchens- presumably depicting family values?!

It really can be the stuff of comedy.

I agree with Bill- let's get back to reality- and discuss the nitty gritty of people's lives!

Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Well said Bill, I'm a cynic but my cynicism is nothing compared to this government.

I remember Blair saying (in 2005?) that people should vote Labour even if they disagrred with Iraq as he wouldn't take it as agreement. He then woke up the next day and was glad everyone agreed with everything he had ever done!
Charlie Farley @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
@elizabeth curtis

Cameron and media etc. indulging in personal attacks against Brown? Isn't that precisely what you did earlier re. Cameron?

The BBC is top heavy with Tory ex-graduates? Who? Name names. You should support such statements with examples.

I have yet to hear any examples of bias on Radio 4 - indeed the Today programme seems equally vicious and probing with politicians of any party. Think you'll find that many interviewers have links with Labour (like Andrew Marr) or have been Labour voters (like John Humphreys). Neither do such people bow to `editorial influence on policy'. You will find that on Sky but where specifically does this happen on the BBC. Does Paxman seem like the sort of person who would be so biddable for example?
Sue Kirby @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi Bill, thankyou so much for your sincere and thoughtful explanation.It seems we have far more in common than I thought on first reading of your posts.

I certainly share some of your disillusionment and disappointment, and wish things to be radically different.

But unfortunately I've run out of time- so I will have to get back to you over the next day or two- if that's OK? (I'm a busy Mum, amongst other things.)

Thanking you, Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
I'm enjoying a day of being Dad at the moment with a 2 year old who thinks he's an opera singer and a 6 month old daughter who is determined to get in the kitchen no matter what is in the way. The joys of parenthood, especially now my son has decided he wants to further explore the contents of his nappy. Not pleasant.

Politically I just wish there was some real focus on what matters to the everyday lives of the majority really. Heavy investment and clever thinking when it comes to the employment situation, prioritising the existance of a workplace rather than fiddling with whats currently in the workplace. Thats not to say equality isn't important, but a million have spent nearly 3 generations on benefits with no hope on the horizon because politicians refuse to address the issue properly.

Rather than legislating about fox hunting, perhaps a focus on the power and water companies ensuring that the people of this country have the essential tools needed to survive in modern Britain without having to pay through the nose or do without. Dedicate valuable time to life changing issues for the majority rather than hyper-focusing on issues that perhaps are not life changing for the majority.

And the smaller things, legislating wheel clampers. A relatively simple task that could be done quickly and efficiently, but it would make a big difference to a good many people.

I know how I come across and for the most part I can be negative, but there is good cause (at least I believe there is good cause). For the sake of investing a few hours by talking to people from different walks of life instead of playing party politics, Labour are wasting their opportunity and they have done for a good many years now. Sound bites are more appealing than actually doing the things that need to be done and politicians seem to think they have a divine right to lecture the public, but carry on their business as usual.

Small steps, but here's one that could be done in 10 minutes. Enforce the smoking ban in the Houses of Parliament, prove that equality exists. Its not changing Britain, but its putting some confidence back into a shattered system.

Appreciate you're busy, but very much look forward to discussing this again.
Bill Dewison @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Let's recapitulate on the re-industrialization front, if we may.

70 million pounds to three ESPRC centres at the universities of Brunel, Southampton and Loughborough for new industrial developments - these are premier engineering faculties

20 million grant and loan guarantees to Sheffield Forgemasters for the development of plant for forging materials for nuclear power

Grants to Xanthus Energy to construct kit-based offshore wind turbines in the NE - 300 jobs to be created

RBS 'industrial bank' of 1billion pounds at preferential rates

The PMI index just released reveals the fatest growth rate for 15 years

There has been some unofficial indication that in January employment rose in the manufacturing sector

Mandelson still has the 600 million for developments in the NE whilst CORUS is mothballed

There is 11.5 billion in the budget for he next fiscal year for contingencies, such as further stimuli.

Well, it's not great, but it's something - and something worth consolidating here on this list.

Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Elizabeth- I must be honest and say I do find the BBC on the whole is balanced- as opposed to the circus of media tabloids...

That includes radio and TV- particularly R.4 is excellent.

Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi! Jo!

It was widely reported that the BBC would only be recruiting ex Tory graduates(I read it in the Observer)and of course Nick Robinson himself is Conservative & once again well publicised he lead the "Young Tories Group at Uni".

My argument is, We are bombarded with storytelling from these political journalists & it is a lazy form of reporting without investigation, & the regular summarizing is always the story will run for days & days to enable them to stay with it to cover their 24/7 "breaking news" tickers.

I understand the appeal of R4. I'm on R2 for the music & Jeremy Vine.


cheers
elizabeth curtis @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Elizabeth Curtis: "It was widely reported that the BBC would only be recruiting ex Tory graduates"

Do you have a link for that? I remember Jeremy Hunt saying the BBC should actively recruit Conservatives to counter the liberal bias recognised within the organisation by Andrew Marr (Nick Robinson's predecessor, husband to the Guardian's Jackie Ashley and former editor of the left-wing Independent); I don't remember the BBC agreeing to hire only "ex Tory graduates", which I imagine would be a bit limiting when it comes to recruitment.

I'm sure if the BBC did agree to this Culture Minister (and former BBC Berlin correspondent) Ben Bradshaw would immediately take it up with BBC Trust chairman (and former Labour council member) Michael Lyons anyway.
Hugh Pettit @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Bill- limited time now, so just skimming though a few comments.

50% of the population was a reference to women- who judging by extensive polls are far less convinced by the current Tory strategies and leadership.

As regards going to war with Iraq- clearly many of us were completely opposed, as I think were many within the party.
I too was devastated by that decision.

However- let's be clear- the Tories were 100& in favour- so it is complete hypocricy for them to try to make political mileage out of this.

As for tax breaks for the better off- isn't that the Tory policy proposal?

As regards the MP's expenses saga- this affected all parties- and I believe had far more to do with a faulty system than the vast majority of MP's.It was institutionalized and out of date- and a heavy price has been paid.(eg public perception.)

I personally would like to see Labour returning to its core values and identity, rather than all 3 parties vying over the middle ground.

I would describe myself as left of centre- and I have the impression there are many voters and MP's within the party who are too.So there is hope for the future change is possible from within.
I think the current soul searching post the MP's expenses'saga, and during after the recession may have crystallized what we are about and where we sould be going.
There is clearly a pragmatic idealism still out there, judging by the work of campaign groups hilighted on LL- that are far more appealing to me than anything yet I've seen across the political spectrum.

I believe in social justice, decent public services, protecting the most vulnerable sections of society and radical measures to address poverty.Also- investment and support of the British manufacturing industry.Add to that, a basic quality of life for all, regardless of percieved "class divisions."

What I've heard so far from the Tory proposed manifesto- are tax breaks for the richer, a repeal of fox hunting laws(thereby appealing to tradional Tory voters in the shires;)rolling back the welfare state and enlisting volunteers,and some populist stuff about prison ships!!!

Is that the best that could be formulated after 12 years in opposition, considering the problems we face in society, after 30 odd years of ineffective measures to address poverty and inequality?! And which incidentally- was galvanized during the 80's.
So as far as I can see, little has changed to the old style Conservatism, apart from a bit of surface gloss and trimming around the edges.

I think what you refer to could be a general picture of mistrust of politicians and the "system" persae- which indeed does need addressing.But I'd imagine that is a major concern anyway.

Despite our differences of opinion and outlook, Bill, may I just say I find some of your posts interesting to read and entertaining.

Thanks, Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
"However- let's be clear- the Tories were 100& in favour- so it is complete hypocricy for them to try to make political mileage out of this."

The Government controlled the intelligence. The Tories fell for the same lies as the PLP because, like them, they didn't yet realise that it was possible that a British Prime Minister could countenance taking this country to war on fabricated evidence. We all know differently now, thanks to New Labour.
"Look, I'm a pretty straight kind of guy." My God.
Bill Lockhart @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
I appreciate I was using extreme examples and as you say, many in the Labour Party were opposed to the Iraq war and continue to oppose the Afghanistan war, but my point was (although quite badly made) that by endorsing Labour at the moment, I feel like I'm agreeing to a raft of things that I strongly oppose.

I take onboard, and always have, that the expenses scandal was on all sides, but I expect a Conservative politician to be dishonest somehow. Growing up and without meaning to sound like some sort of moral crusader, I was disgusted with Conservative politicians because of their many (very public) infidelities and more so that many refused to resign. Being a politician used to mean something in this country and it was a position of respect, a position to look up to and in some respects, moral guidance. What does it say when the government will allow MPs to remain in office when they have admitted fraud? I know I definately will sound like a moral crusader, but personally I believe that John Prescott should have been thrown out of the Labour Party for his conduct whilst he was supposed to be doing his job. What other profession would allow an employee to have an extramarital affair during office hours and allow them to stay with the company?

Sorry, I realise that was a mix of scandal and expenses, but I believe they amount to the same end. The position of a Labour politician is not something to take lightly in my view, they hold a greater responsibility to the people they represent because Labour should represent everyone, not a chosen few or whoever is flavour of the month. The Conservatives chose that path in the 1980's and 1990's, to represent the few over the many and it infuriates me to see a Labour government do the exact same thing.

I am truely uninterested in what the Conservatives may or may not do if they recieve the keys to Downing Street, my sole focus politically is what Labour will do and whether they will admit the many things that have gone wrong, start listening to the people of Britain and correct their ways.

Yes, I have a personal dislike of GB, but its much more about his attitude than personality, his politics over his biscuit choice. It annoys and upsets me that he refuses to show strong leadership, that he passes the ball to the Conservatives by playing cheap political games and even now, when he is supposed to be reassuring the entire country, he openly admits he will concentrate on the middle classes for this election. So everyone else doesn't matter? Or is he hoping that because it worked in '97 that its some sort of political magic dust?

We want the same things Jo, but we're looking at this from two very different angles. I have been told I'm very negative, but I view it more that I'm fault finding. Remove the faults, better politics and it includes everyone rather than a minority. In its quest for equality, the irony is that Labour have excluded large groups of people from any chance of equality. This is as bad as having the initial inequalities surely?

I hope the manifesto is radical, but the politics of New Labour need to end. Maybe old Labour is not the way to go, but certainly the politics of Blair, GB, Mandleson and Campbell need to be consigned to the political dustbin and more inclusive, fairer and tolerant political standpoint taken. You can't fix inequalities by creating more inequality and you definately can't repair the damage the Conservatives did to British industry by issuing state benefits to all.
Bill Dewison @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Glad you liked it Ludwig! its really good to have your experience in LL.
Diana
diana smith @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Are you quite sure we live in the same country? We are talking about England here aren't we? 50% of the population at least are pro-Labour?

And Labour currently expresses your ideals and values? So you're in favour of wars on foreign soils for no gain, but high losses? You're all for giving the middle class a tax break at the expense of the lowest paid in country? You believe that someone should be discriminated against because the government believes in promoting someone of another sex or colour? You're happy that Labour politicians have been claiming phantom mortgages and do not currently reside at Her Majesty's pleasure? You're happy to have a PM who has repeatedly put his own self interests above the people of this country? Your values tell you that it is right for a government to mismanage personal data?

The list is endless, literally, as it was when the Conservative party was in office. The difference is, the Labour Party should be better than all of that and its supporters, past and present, deserve more. Maybe I have a minority view on that and perhaps we should just all believe everything is hunky dory, accepting what the Labour Party has become for the sake of, well, for the sake of what? Being in office? A few quid? I don't know, do you?
Bill Dewison @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi Elizabeth, I think in the current climate, what is needed more than ever is an experienced hand at the tiller,and a wise old soul! There just needs to be a bit more confidence and conviction...but then again the media have imposed a hell of a battering.

I sometimes wonder- who is in charge- the tabloid media aka Daily Mail, or government?!

Somewhere in all of that are the general public!

I do think GB is in touch with ordinary people's concerns though- and that is genuine. As opposed to PR flim flam.

Have good day- Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
@elizabeth curtis. I actually can't tell if your post is meant to be a joke or not.

If you were in the position of interviewing people for a job, would you discount them on the basis of them dyeing their hair? If so I'm afraid you might find you've discounted about 60% of women.

Your post is bizarre in the extreme!
Sue Kirby @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Diana- very interesting perspective, and I agree.

The leader is important- but fundamentally I will be voting for the party that best expresses my values and ideals.

Also- its track record- whether its put its "money where its mouth is!"

On the gender front- the good news is about 50% of the population (at least) are more pro Labour- on values, and presentation!

They just need to get out and vote!

Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
@Elizabeth
"Cameron's Weak mouth, The thinning dyed hair, Slender hands compared to Gordon's firm & safe hands, & then there's his weird sense of dress & behaviour when he was a member of the Bullingdon Club. Then their's his politics, "A real turn off""

Surely Cameron's mouth, hair and hands are as irrelevant as talking about Margaret Thatcher/Harriet Harman/Hilary Clinton's legs/bosom. Appearance shouldn't come into this, only policies. I can't see that making personal attacks will benefit Labour now any more than it did the Tories when they attacked Blair in 97.

For what its worth quite a lot of girls I know like Cameron - and some have said they were more likely to vote Tory because of him. Strangely it seems to be males who are more suspicous about him.
Emirates Stadium @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Regarding Alex's article above- I think the longer we wait for the election, the better.There will be more time for the economic "recovery" to settle- and to see small positive changes.

What Labour really have in their favour is a track record of acheivement(although still a long way to go in my opinion,)convincing policy proposals, a commitment to protecting public services(a huge concern for the electorate,)- and a modern party.
There are also many talented and visionary individuals who could take a greater role in future years.

Maybe too there are many amongst the electorate who have clear and tangible memories of 18 years of Tory government, from the 80's onwards- and don't want a return of those policies.

The challenge will also be- getting people out to vote- particularly groups like younger people.

Somehow there has got to be a breakthough of this voter apathy and malaise.

Tools like facebook and the web can be very useful!

Thanks, Jo.

Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Perhaps another thing to consider is this. Its difficult to get across perhaps.

With Cameron, he is the brand. that is what they are selling. They have set it up as this man rather than that man.

With Labour, in some way the leader can be almost irrevelant.

We have been talking about mutualism. If we can really convey this to people, the fact that they are a significant part of the solution, that they do not have to wait for solutions to be handed down from on high, then the real contest is not between "cameron" and "brown" . it is between "cameron" and all that we can be!
diana smith @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi! diana


The Tories, & Cameron, & the media's emphasis seems to be on personal attack against "Brown" rather than on policy statements.

Even the BBC now is top heavy with ex Tory graduates that are filling positions whereby they are influencing editorial policy, a position that "even my chocolate Labrador" didn't have too much bother recognising. The impartiality of the BBC has now been seriously compromised & leaves the prospect of finding an even cricket pitch difficult coming up to the imminent electoral tournament.



cheers
elizabeth curtis @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Elizabeth Curtis: "Even the BBC now is top heavy with ex Tory graduates that are filling positions whereby they are influencing editorial policy..."

Name three.
Hugh Pettit @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
'it is between "cameron" and all that we can be!'

That is perfect, Diana.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Dear liz
Are you saying there are people out there who evaluate their perspective leaders based on something akin to sex appeal. I find that a little disturbing who ever the focus is.
Robert Young @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi, I know I've said this before- but I suspect Gordon Brown is a shy man, who dislikes the glare of the cameras.

I know someone who has met him in a working capacity(male)- who said he came across as very ordinary; no airs or graces,and a straight talker.
I would imagine behind the scenes, off camera, he is probably much more engaging and appearing less "wooden."

His wife Sarah has certainly described him as a decent, immensely hard working man with a strong social conscience.

I have never gone along with mass media portrayals; they always carriacature public figurees and exxaggerate certain features.

As for DC- he may be a pleasant man- but outwardly he appears far too fond of image, as if a PR person.He may be basing his style on TB- I don't know.He also is a smooth talker- but much of what we hear in public is filtered down rhetoric, rather than direct words that would convince people.
After all- wasn't his previous job at Carlton TV? How does that prepare one to lead the country? I also think he has an edge of fragility which I've noticed in PMQ's- perhaps not as confident and experienced as the image portrays.Politics certainly can be a very aggressive game- which is all the more reason as future leader must have a combination of moral principles/humanity as well as resilience.

I have the impression that DC is meant to represent the "moderate face" of the older style Tories. Whereas in reality it is likely this "modern conservatism" is just an illusion....

I'll be 100% honest, and say that in the longer term I'd like to see someone like Jon Cruddas, or a female MP as the new PM- who is a good communicator, and can unite the Labour party; but particularly strengthen its core values for future policy direction.

I think the qualities needed should be a combination of solid pragmatism and experience,and an idealist vision/communication that is direct;a complete absence of "spin" would be wonderful- and far more appealing to voters.

The kind of "direct" speakers I've previously been inspired by are Tony Benn, Barbara Castle,Mo Mowlem, Clare Short,Oonah King,Dianne Abbott,Jon Cruddas and to some extent, Alan Johnson and Peter Hain.

But at the present time, the choice between GB and DC is very clear! GB has weathered so many storms; he's stuck by his principles, shown utter dedication and commitment,and shows a real strength of character.

He's also managed to stave off the worst effects of a global recession, and is respected as an international statesman.

Yet still manages to retain small acts of kindness.

So as far as I'm concerned he is a man of substance, principle, experience, and has a deep social conscience.

No wonder he is more popular with female voters.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi!Jo!

I enjoyed reading your comments,and by highlighting Gordon's strengths of leadership & character, I agree with you,
" he is more popular with female voters"


cheers

elizabeth curtis @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Cameron. The reasons for my dislike of him may be those which appeal to some men. He has the sort of excessively robust debating style induced by an Oxford education, which also descends in the chamber to personal insult about character. From what I have heard in PMQs, he constantly resorts to personal comment. There is also the charge, advanced by Jo and Elizabeth, that it is all PR and no substance (although they kindly concede that he may be a decent enough fellow). Rumour - and it is only such - is that his girlfriend at Oxford has suggested that he was too lazy to be involved politically, but made known his desire to become Prime Minister - but it is sufficient for Alexander Chancellor to include it in The Guardian.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Ian- ditto; there's been a lot of discussion about this between Dave P, Diana Smith, and Chris Cook.Hope this will be ongoing.

Must say good night- Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
The difference between men and women voters is really quite strong. What is this telling us? What is it that the women are seeing? I think in my case it is quite clear.

I never really buy the idea of grown ups, so when I see someone claiming that we can all rely on them because they have the answers it simply does not ring true.

They must either be playing a part or have limited self knowledge not good qualifications for a position of power.

I'm happier with someone wise enough to know and acknowledge their own vulnerability.

But men are seeing something they like. What is it?
diana smith @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi Ian- good to see you back.

I agree we have had major setbacks, and much to take further forward.

But sometimes it's possible to pull together and regroup in the face of adversity.Our morale couldn't have sunk lower, with all the barrage of criticism and media bias.

And yet now, we are drawing upon our core values and pragmatic policy direction. The difference between the 2 parties are becoming much clearer.

Sorry- i've only got time for a brief comment.

PS- personally, I think of myself as "old" Labour- but how or where that's represented- I'm not sure.

One thing that has inspired me is this talk of "mutualisation" in principle- but I'd like to now more about how or where this could be applied.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
i am all for mutalisation Jo, one of thatch's worse was to allow building socities to float and look at which insitutions got hit the worse, NR, Halifax, B&B etc.

to take a famous quote, we are much better whe we work together than apart.
ian robathan @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
The more I think about it, I'm not entirely convinced by the polls. I think there is a "shy voter" element about both the Tories and Labour. The general mood in the country is anti-politics, so admitting to support one of the two parties which has been in government over the last twenty years is seen as uncool.

Danny does have a point about Brown signing the checks. Brown knows enough about the concept of "collective responsibility" that he should have resigned if he genuinely disagreed with either the war or the way the case for the war was presented. He didn't, which effectively implied consent. It still won't make a difference to the election, Iraq seems to have dropped off the radar regarding voter concerns.
Emirates Stadium @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi Ludwig

Well he doesnt sound like a man that wrote a book on courage, His favorite line is "wasnt me guv" It was the usa fault (Iraq and northern rock selling loans they shouldnt have) , Its the arrogance that puts voters of (and the bullying , smearing and right wing policys) , Can we have the first Labour primeminster for 30 years?

Danny
ricki lake @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
I find that females dislike Brown more than males, they tell me it is his body language that makes him look shifty and untrustworthy.
Roger J. Davies @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Roger J Davies

I know females that think the same about Cameron.

Cameron's Weak mouth, The thinning dyed hair, Slender hands compared to Gordon's firm & safe hands, & then there's his weird sense of dress & behaviour when he was a member of the Bullingdon Club. Then their's his politics, "A real turn off"

So!Roger! "The following saying comes to mind"
'One man's(woman's) meat is another man's(woman's) poison'



cheers
elizabeth curtis @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
"I find that females dislike Brown more than males, they tell me it is his body language that makes him look shifty and untrustworthy."

Is this for real? I mean, you have conversations with women about Gordon Brown?

Astonishing.
Peter Barnard @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Conversations no, hear their comments yes. Some actually cringe. That said I think that the body language does not describe reality as he cannot help the fact that he is blind in one eye and has a problem with his jaw, that probably is due to too much school rugby. But these days perception is everything.
Sorry Ms. Curtis, but I am no fan of Cameroon, however, I note that he does not seem to frighten females.
As for me I do not care what they look like, uglier the better, I am more interested in what they achieve. Here Cameroon has not yet achieved much of note other than being elected as his Parties leader (Brown has not achieved that one), but Brown has a proven track record of failure, obfuscation and lies. I will not forgive him for lying to me about the EU Consti-Treaty.
Roger J. Davies @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Red Rag- I think we can; we've got substance and experience on our side. And some very good people in the party!

Jo.
Hazico 28 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
I'd be fairly comfortable with a small Labour majority government.

I'd be hoping for a massive implosion when Labour have to start cutting and raising taxes and the public see the truth.

Hopefully it would lead to a nasty double dip recession with public sector strikes, public sector redundancies and home repossesions etc. hitting those areas and people who are likely to vote Labour in May.

The private sector have had the worst of things so far and with the fact almost 60% of jobs created under Labour havev been in the public sector, now is the time to have the pain shared around.

It will be fun to see anguished union leaders calling for strikes as Labour is forced to cull the public sector back, hitting those areas dependent on Labour largesse and voting them back in at the expense of everyone in the private sector.

I shall sit happy in a secure job and laugh as the devastation Labour have grown hits all the areas of the UK that the government is currently holding off desperately in order to try to reach May.

Happy days ahead either way.....
Magna Carta @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
The question is can we keep up the momentum? Cameron continuing to make mistakes has got us so far in the last few weeks, we need to kick on from here.

http://redrag1.blogspot.com/
RED RAG ! @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Is that you Dolly?

Or just someone with no sense of irony.
MonkeyBot 5000 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
what is actually correct RED RAG! is that we have no momentum, we have done nothing in my eyes to close this gap. It is all down to basic tory errors and you have to say desperation

therefore why the desperation when they were comfortably in front of us until the last two weeks.

As long has Mandy does not wheel Blair out we can sit there for a while.
ian robathan @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Good night, sleep tight,
Don't let the bedbugs bite.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi Ludwig

In that cas he shouldnt have signed the checks , I guess we know what way his moral compass points = Self intrest first.

Danny
ricki lake @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
We don't know, Danny. If he wasn't in the inner circle, he might not have known anything about the legal advice that was given or not given. He could, of course, have resigned like Cook and Short. If I remember correctly, according to Short, Brown was told that the action was legal. We shall see.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Cameron needs to clearly set out his economic policy. Judging by the polls, whatever they have been doing for the past month or two hasn't been working.

I think it was a step in the right direction announcing there would be no "swingeing cuts". The Tories need to stop talking down the economy, as its clearly weakening market confidence in the UK and ironically if they then win the election they will have dug themselves into a hole.

Emirates Stadium @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
emirates, that is the problem, osbourne only two weeks ago was talking about substantial cuts but that would lead to a double dip recession, just logical it would.

so within two weeks you have had two different policies by the two main people, it took 2 terms before Blair/brown split, Dave/gideon has happened before they have even been elected !
ian robathan @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeTgx_pj6m8
Gabe Trodd @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi Ludwig

If that true , Then he is a coward , He signed the cheques .


Danny
ricki lake @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
You may have misinterpreted what I meant, Danny. Short's testimony is that Brown was not in the Blair inner circle at the time of the decisions. According to her, he was marginalized by Blair at that time. So he couldn't have been privy to the 'evidence' for or against the war. We shall see, of course.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
So he's not a coward, he's just an idiot who signed cheques when he didn't know what they were for?

Doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence.
MonkeyBot 5000 @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Hi Labourlist

why would voters give New Labour credit for the crisis they had a hand in making?

Until we have honest politicons that can tell the truth then many wont vote , Thats a tipping point .

Danny
ricki lake @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
This poll will result in squeaky posteriors at Tory HQ. At long last under scrutiny by Labour and the media who have given Dave a very easy ride up till now, Conservative policy or lack of it is falling apart. More pressure on this lot of fools and we can send the lot back to... (suggestions on a stamped address envelope)
Graham Stewart @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Good.

Perhaps Cameron will now do the decent thing and finish off Gordon Brown.
a b @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
How do you mean?
Alex Smith @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Alex,

Oh come on. Do you seriously think that Cameron wanted Brown gone as soon as possible? He's deliberately laid off him in PMQ and also on policy. The strategy has always been to keep Brown in office.

As for economic policy, what did today really achieve?

Labour outlining in far more detail where the cuts are going to be whilst Brown outlines more government spending.

Chilcot is preparing one hell of a man trap.

Interesting what you say from political betting, they are still holding a Tory 50-seat majority thanks to the swings in the key marginals.

A uniform swing isn't going to happen and is no reflection on the make up of the next Parliament.
a b @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
I think Mike Thomas believes that the Conservative party collapse in the polls is all part of some ingenious plan of theirs :)
Patrick James @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
Clare Short's testimony would seem to remove Brown from the Chilcot pitcture somewhat.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
yep Ludwig, I am sure Short will lay into Blair but she is labour to her core and from what I understand her and Brown did get on well
ian robathan @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
'Interesting what you say from political betting, they are still holding a Tory 50-seat majority thanks to the swings in the key marginals.'

Well, it will be interesting to see whether the Cabinet Office complies with the Information Commissioner's instruction to reveal the position of Ashcroft. If it appears that Bearwood has been illegally providing the Tories with upwards of 5 million pounds in the marginals, one wonders what the resolution will be.
Ludwig Wittgenstein @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
"Well, it will be interesting to see whether the Cabinet Office complies with the Information Commissioner's instruction to reveal the position of Ashcroft. If it appears that Bearwood has been illegally providing the Tories with upwards of 5 million pounds in the marginals, one wonders what the resolution will be. "

surely something has to come out about Ashcroft before the election, either clearing him but if it proves he was illeagally supporting marginals the tories will just slump away
ian robathan @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
It was a literal question. I didn't know to what you were referring! I don't necessarily agree with it. Cameron's own future would be in trouble if he can't win this election relatively well. Maybe he thinks GB is a weakness and wants him in -- I can understand that view though I don't agree with it -- but I don't think he can turn it back on. I think this is a genuine -- uncertain, but genuine -- reaction to the Tories weaker performance since conference season, whereby people are seeing policies and running a mile. It's not, still, that Labour are doing well or capitalising. They're not, really. But there is certainly a trend that this is now at about 7-9% ish.
Alex Smith @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
The next five years are going to be grim for any government. Were I Cameron, there's a case to be made for steering myself into opposition and letting Labour tear itself to bits as it has to cut spending and raise taxes, then sweep to power in 2015.
Tokyo Nambu @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
First, the poll again highlights David Cameron's difficulty in appealing to women voters: while the Tories are 16 points ahead among men, they trail Labour by four points among women.

Interestingly, on R4 this afternoon I heard someone say that it was more difficult to sell insurance to women than to men, because women asked far more pertinent questions. It looks like the same is true when women chose who to vote for.

The more questions you ask about Tory policies, the more they fall apart.
Richard Blogger @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago
exactly Richard, they are falling apart somewhat. Dave and Gideon seem to be saying different things and the policies are not coherently linked.

We have yet to put any kind of campaign together to really quetion them, wonder if Dave thinks his spin will sell better than Brown's obvious substance,wehether you think hm right or wrong
ian robathan @ 25 weeks and 4 days ago