Norwich North: The results

There are no safe seats now. Well there are no seats to be taken for granted.

Yes, I see your point, maybe a workers and professionals party? ;)

The recent expenses farce has brought dishonour on the whole of Parliament, but unfortunately under GB we've been treated to a new kind of contempt that is nothing short of disgusting. Rather than address the needs of the country, GB has ensured that the Party he leads represents itself first and the electorate second. They've proved without a shadow of a doubt that power really does breed corruption.

Its not pleasant and it isn't something to be celebrated, but the Labour Party appears to need a root and branch treatment. A return to what it stands for and a complete scrub of those who have brought it down. The likelyhood of that happening is slim, but if it doesn't happen, you are right Mike, it'll be 110 years and then oblivion.

Hi Ralph & Bill

Which of the two statements do you like the best?

has a long and proud record of struggling to defend working-class people. We are involved in many campaigns throughout the UK.
We support workers in industrial disputes, fight against tuition fees, privatisation, for better pay, to stop council house sell-offs and for free education. We campaign to stop the destruction and pollution of our planet and its environment. We fight for a socialist world free of war and terror.

stands for today are those which have guided it throughout its existence.
• social justice
• strong community and strong values
• reward for hard work
• decency
• rights matched by responsibilities

As I said on another article, the left are already starting to come together and build a coalition for a workers party and if it is done right, the Labour party as we know it will no longer have anything to offer. If Labour don’t wake up it might be too late for them, they will not regain the ground of the left and will therefore be left as just another version of the Tory party.

I think they have deserted the people who they once represented in pursuit of power and greed. The architects of New Labour have dishonoured the Labour movement. 109 years of struggle has come to this.

In Unity

MA

I did.

Plenty of socialists around in the 80s - and they got trounced.

Everyone thought the Tories would win. Almost no-one thought they would win by this much.

Oh yes it will....

.... unless you do something about it.

(In a nutshell: Ditch your leader and call a GE. You will still lose, but by less - and you'll be able to start the hard and lengthy business of rebuilding your Party from scratch. The alternative is oblivion.)

Norwich North was a safe seat.

Face reality: the Labour Party is facing political oblivion.

Why is anyone surprised that Labour got thrashed?

Anyone without blinkers saw it coming weeks ago.

It's a lovely evening.

We shall have to wait and see......

Guy go and read a book on Socialism you will see that thier is a lot more to it. Then go and read a book on modern democratic socialism and you'll find there is a lot more too it.

I am suprised we got 2nd if I'm honest, this really could have been worse. Of course the swing if realised in the election will kill us, but it wont be quite that much surely.

"To those of us on the right there will be am ocean of clear water between this failed Labour government and a Cameron administration"
To those of us on the Left, there will be depressingly little. The difference between centre-right and centre-a-bit-more-right isn't all that great: much better in some areas (ID cards, DNA retention, hopefully "contact point", hopefully detention without trial ..., rather worse in some others, but overall pretty much more of the same.

You're missing Ralph's point - there are few, if any socialist candidates. How can the electorate vote against something that isn't there?

I think the 'nanny state' description could apply just as easily to the Tories, although it tends to be over questions like drinking and sex. The boroughs with the most use of CCTV are largely Tory - Wandsworth being the best example - and I think that government by its very nature tends to treat its citizens like kids. the Tories approach tends to be rather more headmasterly than Nanny, but the authoritarianism remains, and I think you are kidding yourself if you think that this will significantly change.

As for lower taxation, forget it. Not going to happen.

I think Cameron will appeal to people like you about as much as Blair appealed to people on the socialist Left.

Well, the mythical Middle England is going to have to get used to a significant rise in taxation no matter who gets in next time.

There is no such thing as a safe labour seat now. They are all up for grabs.
Put your money on less than 100 seats after the next election.
private donors have bailed out the unions will bail out. labour is finished for a generation if not for good, and it cant happen soon enough.

When has Labour been elected (in modern times) on a redistributive platform?

You were elected from 1997 due to dislie of the Tories and because "middle England" bought into the New Labour brand of no significant increase in taxation.

Please please please do go back to "authentic Labour" as you'll be out of government for an even longer time.

I don't expect "very right wing policies", but I do expect a cultural shift in attitude from the very first day of a Tory goverenment.

Out will go "big government" and "nanny statism".

As a philosophy the Tories will again embrace lower taxation once they can do it financially.

To those of us on the right there will be am ocean of clear water between this failed Labour government and a Cameron administration

There is such a thing as the electoral cycle. Parties rise and fall in popularity and its largely because people have become bored and fed up of the incumbents at a time when the opposition looks credible. This has happened a number of times over the past two decades when there has been a change of government.

The problem is that there is not very much in the way of choice. For all Guy's shrieking on here, the Cameron-led Tory party is not going to impose those sort of very right wing policies any more than Labour will adopt full-bodied socialism. The differences will largely be on the fringes.

Saint Anthony of Blair would have joined whichever party was in disarray and so offered the best chance of working his way up to Leadership, and the position of Prime Minister when the electoral cycle changed. It's everyone's bad luck that that happened to be the Labour party ... by background, belief and inclination TB is a Wet Tory.

No Guy, we won our second term because we had done "socialist" things, but at the same time we were fair to business.
After that people got greedy and ambitious.

That is the problem greed and ruthless ambition are poisoning our party which is destroying itself. Your vote (not share, actual votes) went wown, our plummeted. The reality is that Labour "minded' people do not recognise the party anymore or identify with it.


They want a Labour Party with strong links with thier communities, that address social problems, but what they have been given is a bunch of ex-students with no life experience who dictate policy to them without debate or any kind of understanding as to the practical effect of it on the ground. Add to this the expenses situation you have, you have ruthless politicians who create policy from think tanks they can hide behind, when the research turns out to be crap and unrealistic. These individuals will do absolutely anything to keep power and take as much money as they can from the taxpayer or the private sector so as to address some sad internal inferiority complex of not being from a wealthy elitist family.

The good Mp's we have and all over candiddates will suffer due to the arrogance and pretention of these unelites. There is sadly very little concern for the poor in the UK, those on low wages are pretty much ignored. Well they are ignoring back now. It is time for the PLP to Reap what they have sown.

"they stopped being "Socialist" some time a go". They never were, phoney Tony made sure of that.

The problem you have is when there is a real "socialist" offering, the public vote against it.

Labour will never get elected on a high taxation, redistributive platform.

So once you're gone this time......

Yes Paul,

It's that kind of undemocratic garbage that got our party into this mess into the first place. I think some bunnies have to evolve unless they want to become extinct by selection pressure.

"Does Labour have any safe seats left?
Alas, it does - I live in one, where we have the execrable Lammy as MP.

tick/agree

Yeeeeesss! I can't believe we won! Well done Labo... Oh wait... no. I was looking at it wrong.

Well that is the problem Guy, they stopped being "Socialist" some time a go. Many of them stopped being decent people some time ago too.

The people are cleaning our Party for us. Note you lost about 10% of votes when compared to the General in 2005, but this is not a problem for you, if you read the Times article below you will see the very articulate and effective campaign method employed.


The Tory candidate used to work for Gillian Shepherd and I campaigned against Gillian some time ago. Gillian is one the best political Campaigners I have fought against, so the Norfolk Conservative machine will benefit from having this young lady elected.


For me it is a bitter cup, I do expect Labour to lose the General, I have made no secret of this. I just cannot see them lasting two minutes with constant U-turns on Tory policy and the sleaze we have all witnessed. The combination of the two is suicide for the PLP. But not for the movement which is clearly going into hybernation until we have PLP MP's with integrity and vision. As you can see James Purnells launch has achieved nothing.


We shall sleep until it's time to come back, unless of course we are left with two centre right parties in Parliament, in which case extremism will be on many peoples plates.

From what Labour activists are telling me, you are wrong. The public AND the activists are angry.

You should be more optimistic for your party.

The Times:

The Conservatives:

"Lord Ashcroft's marginal seats campaign, run by Stephen Gilbert, relocated to the constituency to organise the leafleting and get-out-the-vote operation. There were reports of street-specific leaflets, as well as regular advertisements in the local newspapers. The limit on by-election spending is limited by law to approximately £100,000. All Tory MPs were ordered by the Chief Whip to make at least three visits, registering attendance with his chief adviser, and 100 MPs are understood to have been in the constituency on polling day."


Labour

" The Labour campaign has been beset by problems. The campaign got off to a slow start, with Labour candidate, Chris Ostrowski, falling victim to swine flu in the final week of the campaign and not attending the count. Ben Bradshaw, the Culture Secretary, paid several visits but many other members of the Cabinet, as well as the Prime Minister, stayed away.

Gordon Brown said on Wednesday that the "unique" circumstances of the poll meant the party was unlikely to hold on and conceded that Dr Gibson had been a popular local MP."


Draw your own conclusions....

"The Tories would have 434 MPs, with Labour on 107, the Liberal Democrats 79, and others 30."

Not even remotely possible with the current boundaries, they heavily favour Labour.

Conservative = 39.5% (+6.3%)
Labour = 18.2% (-26.7%)
Liberal Democrat = 14.0% (-2.2%)
UK Independence = 11.8% (+9.4%)
Green = 9.7% (+7.0%)

Tories achieve a healthy increase in vote share - very impressive when you consider the very strong showing by UKIP.

Labour vote has gone into meltdown, and was lucky not to fall into third place.

Lib Dems ought to be gutted. The only party along with Labour to see a fall in vote share. No longer the natural home of the protest vote it would seem.

UKIP should be ecstatic - this may well be their best by-election result ever, and it's not on anything like their natural stomping ground.

Greens put in a respectable performance but must be disappointed to have been pipped by UKIP.

16.5% swing to the Tories.

I'm now waiting with anticipation for the comments that this was a "blip", "not that good for the Tories", "no indication that Labour will lose a general election" and all the associated nonsense.

We are in the dieing days of another failed socialist government and the end can't come quickly enough as far as most of England are concerned.

In the Euro Labour was on 15%, this was 18%. Yet the polls place Labour around the 25% points.

However when we apply the figues to a National situation as did the Guardian:

"Labour's defeat, in a seat held comfortably by the party since 1997, is the fifth byelection blow Brown has suffered since he took over the reins at No 10.

If the result was repeated across the country in a general election, the Tories would be swept to power with a Commons majority of 218, analysis by the Press Association news agency showed.

The Tories would have 434 MPs, with Labour on 107, the Liberal Democrats 79, and others 30."

Thats a sad view, why does he deserve a safe seat? NN should have been safe. The local party should decide not the PLP.

I look forward to the Socialist explaining why this was a failure for the Tories.

"...whether in Norwich North or in a safe seat".

I thought Norwich North WAS a safe seat. What are you calling a safe seat now?

Harriet was excellent on WatO just now.

Didn't Norwich North used to be a safe seat?

Does Labour have any safe seats left?

"Mr Ben Bradshaw conceded that the Labour loss in Norwich North was disappointing, but not as bad for the party as last year’s by-election defeats."

Well that's alright then, not as bad as last year. I beg to differ.

The Guardian

Chloe Smith (C) 13,591 (39.54%, +6.29%)
Chris Ostrowski (Lab) 6,243 (18.16%, -26.70%)
April Pond (LD) 4,803 (13.97%, -2.22%)
Glenn Tingle (UKIP) 4,068 (11.83%, +9.45%)
Rupert Read (Green) 3,350 (9.74%, +7.08%)
Craig Murray (Honest) 953 (2.77%)
Robert West (BNP) 941 (2.74%)
Bill Holden (Ind) 166 (0.48%, -0.17%)
Howling Laud (Loony) 144 (0.42%)
Anne Fryatt (NOTA) 59 (0.17%)
Thomas Burridge (Libertarian) 36 (0.10%)
Peter Baggs (Ind) 23 (0.07%)
C maj 7,348 (21.37%)
16.49% swing Lab to C
Electorate 75,124; Turnout 34,377 (45.76%, -15.33%)

LOL a Labour safe seat, no such thing come the next election.

Tory vote down not a worry for them as a small reduction occured in the polls. Cameron's timing in dealing with expenses clearly prevailing upon the party.

Labour down by significantly more.....

A crushing defeat for Labour. Brown is ensuring a lengthy walk in the wilderness for Labour.

Over 7,000 majority. How is Brown going to spin this ringing endorsement of his leadership?

"Tory candidate Chloe Smith won with 13,591 - more than twice as many votes as the Labour candidate Chris Ostrowski who had 6,243 votes." BBC News Frontpage

The Lib Dems came third with 4,803, narrowly ahead of UKIP on 4,068.

1995 2009

Con 15,638 13,591

Lab 21,097 6,243

So Labour in comparison to the General, lost in effect 70% of it's votes.

Saddened, but expected the result to go to the Tories. Hopefully Chris will get well soon and will be able to enter Parliament before long, whether in Norwich North or in a safe seat

Well Labour, as I keep saying, you're still not listening, you still think you know best and ignoring the public.

You keep getting the same answer at every election.

Agreed on the latter point not the former ;)

I want to see the full results,b did the mainstream parties increase/decrease. That is the key information. What % of voters fell away (overall the turnout was down 20%) so I want to know who and by how much.

Tories win with 7000 majority.

Good news: BNP only get 941

Tory majority of 7348. Just need the figures in full..

It's official, Labour got ruined.

7,000 majority - not that crazy after all... Labour are dead.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8166398.stm

Ian Gibson Labour 21,097 44.9%
James Tumbridge Conservative 15,638 33.2%

This was the 2005 result, I am interested in seeing how much the Tories gained and Labour lost...

Sky News sources are now predicting a Tory majority of between 4,000 and 5,000. Higher than the 2,000 dale / Montgomerie predictions, but lower than the crazy 10,000 reports elsewhere.

Not sure yet, but I have been told Labour has conceded defeat.

Why? They've all come from Labour Central Office.
"Akin to a banana republic", wasn't that the quote?

bob blizzard says "the labour vote is down and the Tory vote is up, but not by as much as they thought".

Turnout was down to just over 40% hmmm was over 60% in the General, is this the collapse of the core vote, or a general reduction across the board? We shall see....

They have loads of postal votes and say they need time to verify these.

Politics Home says it's going to be close between Labour and the Lib Dems for second place.

Don't be fooled Easton, Brown was never Old Labour. You cannot trust the man. He was supposed to hate mandy, but now he is his best mate.

He is supposed to have a moral compass, but he is dishonest and devious.

He may have been real Labour 30 years ago, but hasn't been for a decade or more in truth.

I don't think there was ever a Blair/Brown experiment. I think there was Blair, and an old-labour loser riding his coat tails.

I'm off down to Ladbrokes to collect my meagre winnings

Why is the count delayed until today?. Surely Norfolk isn't THAT sleepy!. Most election results appear on the 0530 News on radio 4 on Friday morning.

That said, it cannot be a surprise that Labour will fare badly. We have so many broken promises from Brown. We don't even know if he is really the P.M. or if he is just Mandy's puppet.

Still, fear not, when pompous Jamie Pur-nell has finished his three year study of what is wrong with NuLabour(ToryLite) and come up with some "left" solutions, (from a right-wing perspective) the real Labour supporters will have moved to the Greens and other parties which more accurately reflect their views.


Last night, I am happy to say, the Greens won a seat on Brighton and Hove council which now means the Tories can be outvoted provided the LibDEms and "Labour" all vote together. Mind you, I daresay, some of the "Labour" representitives are just as Tory as the Tories.

The Blair/Brown/Mandy experiment is now dead - how much more proof do "New Labourite" sycopahnts and hangers-on need?

Stay posted...