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Grayling's projection of drama onto our reality is ignorant, dishonest and politically irresponsible

The WireThe Labour movement column

By Anthony Painter / @anthonypainter

The Wire is real. All the characters that it portrays are fictional - in the main - but the world that David Simon and Ed Burns created exists. It is the ghettoes in Baltimore and elsewhere. Their creative genius was to realise that what we needed to see was warts and all reality and not some embellishment.

Chris Grayling watches TV. He sees a world that he doesn’t recognise but still projects it onto the world around him. It is an arch fantasy to compare modern Britain with the reality of urban decay in too many US cities. He is Ed Burns and David Simon in reverse: he takes drama and then attempts - in a truly cack-handed and politically irresponsible way - to hoodwink us into thinking that it is our reality.

A year ago I visited an extremely deprived area in Chicago while researching Barack Obama: the movement for change. It is difficult to put into words how unspeakably unjust was the level of poverty and despair in Altgeld Gardens. Why did I choose this area? It was where Barack Obama had been a community organiser in the 1980s.

A colleague of Barack Obama’s from that time, Linda Randle, described the plight of Altgeld Gardens to me:

“Altgeld Gardens is the worst community in Chicago, no doubt. At least where there is poverty and deprivation elsewhere there are programmes to deal with it and other communities are more mixed. The only thing is to suspend your rational responses when it comes to Altgeld. None of your rational instincts work. You need to catch your breath and try to contemplate the enormity of it.”

By lunch on the first day, my breath had gone. Paulette Edwards, a family support charity worker, guided me around Altgeld Gardens. She was holding back the tears as she described a community that had, to coin a phrase, broken down. She said:

“I am determined to get just one kid, just one kid, all the way through. Then it was all worth it.”

Her colleague Kim explained:

“It used to be that the “Stones” would control this block and the “BDs” would control that block but now they are all mixed in together….We are told that people should learn to get along. And they will. By killing each other.”

Grayling-esque melodrama? No. The day before I arrived at Altgeld Gardens, there had had been a gangland shooting - a 14 year-old boy had shot a 19 year-old girl. The week before there had been another homicide. Kids as young as eleven have access to guns and you can see them hanging by the dumpsters or on the basketball court. Murders are routine but police recording of the ‘stats’ is not. There were 11 murders in Altgeld Gardens in the last quarter of 2007. This is in a population of barely 3,500.

Perhaps intended, perhaps by pure chance, the name of the founder of the Black Gangster Disciples was a David Barksdale. Avon Barksdale was a gang leader in The Wire. The community is Wire-esque in every regard.

The gangs are the parasite that feed on the economic collapse of a community. When steel mills started to close in the late 1970s and early 1980s the economic lifeblood of Altgeld Gardens - an almost entirely African American community - was drained away.

The result? Worklessness is somewhere north of 80%. Drug addiction is pandemic. Family breakdown is pervasive. Few kids graduate from High School - by 8th Grade, 51% of kids are at 6th Grade standard only. Many of them are already living adult lives so it is little wonder that they fail to achieve. The High School was closed last year. It had failed so many.

Welfare is miserly. In the US, a year out of work and your only income is the occasional hand-out and food stamps. Of course, food stamps become currency (especially as they don’t attract sales tax) so they are sold at below face value and families are under-nourished. There’s only junk to eat anyway. The only other sources of income are a job if you are very, very lucky or gang related activity.

Now, you tell me where in the UK these conditions are replicated with such severity? Even if you name one place - which you can’t because we have a proper welfare state - then fifty more places in the US could be given as examples. It’s all very well banging on about welfare dependency but in a place like Altgeld Gardens there really is very little choice - there’s no work and the only real welfare you get is a public house and some food stamps. Besides, whatever the actions of the parents don’t the kids deserve some sort of chance?

This is the real issue with Chris Grayling’s The Wire comparison. Quite apart from the fact that it is simply not true, it trivialises suffering. If suffering just becomes some sort of political play thing then what chance is there of meaningful political action? Where is the type of textured policy discussion that can make a difference? If we start with a myth, how on earth will we end up with the truth?

It is difficult to resist the Tommy Carcetti analogy. However, ultimately Carcetti was honestly portraying social crisis though he had neither the personal integrity nor nous to do much about it. Chris Grayling’s starting position is fundamental dishonesty. This wasn’t just an off-the-cuff comment; it was pre-meditated and deliberate. That makes it all the more unforgivable.

Nobody is claiming that Britain doesn’t face major social issues - few nations do not. To pretend they are new is dishonest. To compare Britain to the communities we see both in The Wire and across America is disingenuous. The only conclusion has to be that while it is clear that the Conservatives are desperate to get into government, they are not serious as a party of government. If they were, they would not fantasise about a Britain derived from a TV drama in this way.

Posted on Aug 25, 2009 at 03:51pm


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The seriousness and significance of a crime statistic must be assessed in relation to the general incidence of such crimes in the community and the country.
The conditions in Baltimore profoundly shock us, but set them against conditions to be found elsewhere in the city, the state and the country and they perhaps are not so startling. Crimes in Manchester on the other hand, are more alarming set against the general way of life in the city and elsewhere in the country.

When set against the statistics for 1932 in London they are terrifying. In that year,in Greater London in a deep depression, population over 6 million, there were 379 crimes of violence by male first offenders; of those, 45 were in the age group 16-20. These are actual figures, not attached to '000. My source is The New Survey of London Life and Labour published in 1935 and administered from the LSE.
Bernard Keeffe @ 47 weeks and 5 days ago
the politician is bland in the extreme. He seeks The Wire within.
ash cash @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
"Kids as young as 10 are being used as drug runners" - Chris Grayling.

A terrible indictment of Labour failing to deal with the drug problem despite being in office for over a decade?

Well yes, but Grayling fails to mention that minors sold drugs during the 18 year Tory reign. Where's the evidence I hear you cry? Well allow me (and this will delight those who are fans of delicious irony).

Seems Grayling isn't as big a fan of The Smiths as his boss. If he was, he might have been familiar with the lyrics to the title track off The Queen Is Dead - Cameron's favourite Smiths album -

Some 9-year old tough who peddles drugs
I swear to God
I swear : I never even knew what drugs were
Oh ...

That was 1986, 7 years into Thatcherism and yet 9 year old kids were selling drugs. Seems Britain's been broken for a while.

So Mr Grayling please don't pretend your lot were any better before Labour or will be any better after them. Enjoy.

Louis Mazzini @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
I have to say that I've never seen lyrics used as rebuttal ammo before. Hope it starts a trend!
Anthony Painter @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
The Secret Diary of Chris Grayling (aged 47 and 1/3)

Everyone seemed to really like my comparison of the UK with The Wire so I thought it would be a good idea to watch another one and see what else I could come up with.

Turns out that little black boy with the high pitched voice who shoots people is really a girl. Gosh!! Wonder if I could tie that in with the South African athlete? Tricky one. Might have to ask AC.

Just realised. Andy Coulson and Alastair Campbell have the same initials, spooky.

Anyway back to The Wire. Couldn't follow it all too well (wish the coloured fella's would speak English) but it looked like drug money was tied up in political donations and laundered through an island somewhere. Hmmmnn, hope nobody we know is involved in anything like that. Wonder if any of our donors live on an island?
Louis Mazzini @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Brilliant. You should start a regular column.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Whatever happened to Stella who used to write a weekly round-up, she was v good.

Humour might be all we have left at this rate :(
Louis Mazzini @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Time spent laughing is time spent with the gods.

Don't worry, Louis. I first voted in 1979. Imagine that. 18 years of Tory dominance. Won't be that bad this time. Political oblivion is character forming... though what kind of bitter, twisted character it forms, is another thing.

Someday, we'll look back on this, sigh ruefully... then change the subject.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Character forming eh? You remind me of the dad in the Calvin & Hobbes cartoons.

In a bitter twisted sort of way I might enjoy a Tory government, if only to see the increasingly desparate lengths our resident trolls will go to in order to justify the Cameron & Osborne debacle.
Louis Mazzini @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
One good thing about the Toriez getting in is that it'll be nice to hate the right side again.
Charlie Farley @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Old Holborn @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
OH. Is this how your famous blog works? You reference a source and completely misrepresent it? Must do wonders with that windy echo chamber which calls itself 'Libertarian Thought'

Just explain to me how a murder rate of 34 for the whole of Greater Manchester is worse than Baltimore's 282?
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
There are particular violent crimes that people are worried about. Here are the facts (most recent data I can find in all cases):

Description and identity of all known Teen murders since 1 Jan 2008

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7777635.stm


Location and demographics of all known Teen murder since 1 Jan 2008

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7780497.stm


Total knife crimes per region 2007 / 2008

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7511664.stm


Gun Crime statistics 2007 (most recent I can find)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6960431.stm


Burglary 2008

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8014015.stm
Jonathan Cook @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Grayling's an idiot but its clear what point he is trying to get across, gang crime/stabbings etc are up massively since 1997. Having a pretend fit over it (two articles on the same subject in five minutes is a record) doesn't change the basic idea behind what he says.
Charlie Farley @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Evidence Charlie on the rise in stabbings/gang crime. I've shown you how to hyperlink now, so no excuses.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
HI Peter, well I found this which contains the sentence Sir Michael accused the government of releasing the figures without proper checks and of manipulating them for political ends.

BBC Politics

Apart from that there doesn't appear to be official statistics for knife crime. I imagine therewould be if it had gone down.
Charlie Farley @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Hold on. That's a Conservative Party handout. Neutral third party sources please.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Peter,

For some odd reason knife crime was first recorded in 2007 / 2008 and published in July 2008:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7511664.stm

Since then there has been a row when Downing Street were accused of releasing dodgy knife statistics by Sir Michael Scholar, head of the UK Statistics Authority

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7781030.stm

Knife crime has, however, previously been recorded as total number of all injuries. Scroll down for the graph. Knife injuries since 1994 as a percentage of all injuries has increased exponentially in urban areas and has stayed more or less flat in rural areas.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmselect/cmhaff/112/11206.htm
Jonathan Cook @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
A href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/14000-knife-victims-a-year-860857.html"> Knife violence in Britain is far worse than official statistics suggest, with almost 14,000 people taken to hospital for injuries caused by knives and other sharp weapons last year.

According to the latest Department of Health statistics, an average of 38 victims of knife wounds are admitted to accident and emergency departments across the country every day.

Need more?
Old Holborn @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Yes. Because there's absolutely no historical comparison in your anecdotes. You just want to believe what The Mail and Evening Standard tells you in one of its periodic panics. It was Herpes once. Then dangerous dogs. Paedophiles.

Fear sells newspapers, didn't you know. Oh. And perhaps libertarian blogs too.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Funny, the Liberals around me way (who according to an inside source never started or contributed to the anti-knife crime campaign) are claiming knife crime is down and are taking all the credit. So, who you gannoa believe? The Tories who want to sell themselves, or the Liberals who want to sell themselves? Someone is lying, or someone is taking the mick. Maybe both.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Jacqui Smith suffered a barrage of criticism yesterday after admitting she would not feel safe walking the streets after dark.

Opposition MPs said the Home Secretary had made an "admission of failure" to the millions of shift-workers who have no option but to brave the threat of violence.

Aides of Miss Smith compounded her gaffe with a desperate attempt to undo the damage by claiming she had recently popped out in the evening to "buy a kebab in Peckham".


In fact, she has round-the-clock police protection.


Old Holborn @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
The Tory party supported by online campaigners like yourself have picked on Jacqui Smith as a target and whipped up hatred. Given the lurid claims and inciteful behaviour of the Tories and Libertarian bloggers it's no surprise that there's incidents of public disorder and threats against public figures.

Big mouths and cowards, the lot of you.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
I hope to be responsible for a lot more public disorder Charles. Isn't the internet a wonderful thing?
Old Holborn @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Well, if you want to admit treason and sedition be my guest.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Happy to.

646 of them, 60 million of us. 92500 of us for every one of them. Time they were reminded they exercise power on OUR behalf, not theirs.
Old Holborn @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
OH,

It will be difficult for you to gain the respect and support of the public when you hide your face behind a mask, just as terrorists do.

Go on - give us that link again so we can all have a good laugh!
Peter Barnard @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
a bit of a contradiction. the person who wants extreme transparency in public life is himself the most secretive person.
ash cash @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
You'd think so wouldn't you? Except it appears not to be the case.

3rd best Libertarian Blog in the UK
9th best Political Blog in the UK
12th best UK Blog
Old Holborn @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
3rd best Libertarian Blog?

Isn't that a contradiction in terms?

Do you do signed autographs as well?

It's amazing how in the UK, political blogging is more like US gossip sites.

But kudos to you, OH. If that traffic is genuine, you can upgrade to Golden Virginia.

Not sure you'll get a lot of people following over the barricades to your Utopia though. Wasn't your closest model Switzerland?
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Your numbers don't mean a thing, and I've looked at the Libertarian party's site as well. Most of it is just vague one size fits all claims and statistical smoke and mirrors. You're just a product of the internet like Deepak Chopra only without the brain and sense of humour.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Not best, OH. You're using different metrics there...
Alex Smith @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
That's an eloquent and more comprehensive topic than I could be bothered to write but it's sport on. America is the land of big opportunity but also big failure. It's history, wealth of natural resources, and consitution explain that to some degree. In the same way the razzle dazzle inspires some British CEOs to over-stretch themselves so you get the same happening at the bottom. People want power, respect, and wealth and latch onto the Hollywood images of Gordon Gecko and gangsta rappers in the hood. But, that's just a glitzy fiction that never makes a big deal of the downsides.

Now, we can continue sucking on the teat of macho management, greed, and the want it now culture and drive ourselves into ever more stupidity, inequality, and sordid realities of broken lives. Or we can take a step back and look around. We know that many CEOs, financiars, and deprived people do know which way is forward, do care, and are prepared to hack it through. Sure, the CBI is rotting from the necktie up and some marginalised communities are the pits but better leaders have spoken out and some people have escaped their trap to succeed. This is the emergent future Britain and exactly what we need to be focusing on.

The paranoid and depressing vision of Britian that's gripped popular culture and one that Grayling has sought to exploit is real insofar as some people believe it's real and feel the pain of that. But, this is not how things necessarily are nor how they need to be. Many people feel the recession is an impenetrable obstacle and the Tories have done everything they can to make people feel miserable. The Wire is fiction but the smooth gangster act of the Tories trying to trap and undermine people is not, and when people wake up to that fiction the Tories will be run out of town.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
I live in a nice, safe part of town, but a quick Google produces this from the Guardian in February this year:

"An unexpected note of sympathy enters Detective Chief Superintendent Steve Moore's voice as he explains why he thinks more and more young people are getting caught up with gangs and guns. He argues that a consumer society where "you are nobody without the newest trainers, the most fashionable clothes and the latest phones" offers few chances for those who "come out of the education system unable to read and write, and not numerate". And there's no prospect of an honest wage from manual labour, he adds. "The days of working by sweat, in the factories or in the docks - those days are really gone now."

Instead, there are two options, as he sees it: either to sit around on benefit, or to get involved in crime. For some, Moore says, the latter seems "more proactive. You are taking a grip of your own life." Crime offers a way of "boosting" bruised self-esteem.

This sympathy does not translate to a soft approach to policing. DCS Moore oversees one of the country's most successful anti-gun crime units, based on a principle of heavy use of the stick and a few dangled carrots. Inspired by a similar project used successfully in Boston, US, in the 1990s, the unit carries out extensive covert surveillance of suspects and is determined in its prosecution of ringleaders.

Since Moore took over a year ago, the Matrix team on Merseyside has seen a 36% reduction in shooting offences. In 2007-08, 130 shots were fired in the area, causing six deaths; this year, there have been 83 shots fired and three deaths. The unit's achievements have attracted the interest of the Home Office and police forces around the country, and have gone some way to restoring confidence in an area badly shaken by the murder in 2007 of 11-year-old Rhys Jones."

Is that so very different from the Wire? I have only seen the small excerpt on Alex Smith's piece, but the margin between what I read in the Guardian has beeen happening in Merseyside (and, before I do a Boris Johnson, elsewhere too in the UK) and the clip on Alex Smith's piece does not appear to be so great as to justify the allegation that Mr Grayling is "ignorant, dishonest and politically irresponsible".

There plainly is a problem with knife culture, gangs and guns.

Mark Cannon @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Mark: I live on Merseyside, and served for 4 years on the police authority. I think that you need to put this into context a bit more. First, Merseyside does have a strong emphasis on community policing and tends to use specialist teams such as Matrix, which I strongly support. Second, note the emphasis on ringleaders - the problem is nowhere near as widespread as in some American cities. And I think that the situation would have been exactly the same no matter who was in Government, because to an extent we are following American trends - but at least guns aren't quite as easily available.

I sat on the police authority as an independent member and there was nothing more annoying than political capital being made out of these issues - although it was always, but always the Lib Dems who did so. I don't actually think there is a great deal of difference between the parties - indeed. Merseyside's police authority is Labour-chaired.
Mike Homfray @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Mike,

I defer to your local knowledge. I wasn't seeking to make political capital out of the level of gun crime on Merseyside or even to make a point about Merseyside in particular.

I was responding to the suggestion that Mr Grayling was "ignorant, dishonest and politically irresponsible". These are very strong words.

I just put some words in Google and found a link to an article in the Guardian (which seemed to likely to be seen as a respectable source on this site) which suggested that Mr Grayling may not have been so reprehensible.
Mark Cannon @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Nope, there is a problem with British Black culture.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/england/london/7117749.stm
Old Holborn @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Careful OH, you'll get accused of racism for that.
a b @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
It would appear that even the delicate souls of Buckinghamshire are taking risks with what they say - http://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/localnews/wycombenews/4552126.Police_action_targets_teen_muggers/

G Egner @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Well, let's see. A former Home Secretary admits to not feeling safe going out at night. Then there's this too...

Harman's Stab vest tour of Peckham

You only have to watch the regional news for London to see rape, murder, stabbings, muggings and gang violence being reported in such a weary matter of fact manner to see that Grayling has a point that reality is just as bad as fiction.
a b @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Do you live in London, Mike? Do you walk its streets? Have you been to Peckham? Does your criminological sample go beyond the Regional News?

I know Peckham well, and it's a rough old part of London, but improving since the dark days of the Damilola Taylor stabbing. In fact, I remember hearing what it was like in those idealised days of the 50s and 60s, when the place was controlled by the Richardson's, and gang crime was just as rife - albeit white.

There's so much misinformation about crime. As several great books (from Freakonomics to Risk) have shown, we have a completely distorted view of crime due to the prevalence and immediacy of modern media. Even given the slight rise since the 50s low point (mainly due to National Service no doubt and post war exhaustion), crime rates have fallen dramatically since Victorian times. There are problems to be sure, and youth unemployment is certainly not going to help things. But to compare the UK to Baltimore, where a young black man has a higher chance of being in prison than in college, and violent death is the main cause of mortality for young men, is complete hyperbole.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
I did Peter, I lived in London for 17 years how about you? I also lived in and around Greater Manchester places like Lower Broughton, Crumpsall and Cheetham Hill for 3 years. I grew up in Earlsdon and made many journeys into Ghost Town.

I've worked and lived in Moscow too during the 'Wild West' era of the New Oligarchs complete with the odd Mexican stand-off every Friday night at the Alabama Bar.

And I moved around at night in Manchester, London, Coventry and Moscow and without a stab vest.

I left London when I found someone jacking up in our cul-de-sac garage block and Red Ken labelled all of us looking to live somewhere else as 'white flight'.

Only too happy to oblige.

I live somewhere now without a lot of aggro and less likely to resemble the Wild West, London .... or Moscow.
a b @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Yes, and still learned nothing. I'm not surprised to hear you move around by night though.

Lived in London a quarter of a century. Been to many cities in the UK, Europe, Russia, African and India.

I've also lived and worked in the States. Grayling's comparison is utter tripe, and if you had an ounce of intellectual self-respect, you'd admit it.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Personal experiences, and some of the comment by former gangsters and criminologists on the BBC is showing Graylings claims up to be bunk and reflects a lot of the better informed comment in here.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Charles, all your link shows to me in terms of stats that Manchester has 50% more violent crime than that area of Baltimore and is almost on a par for robbery.

As for murder; the US' problem with gun crime is well documented.

Thankfully we don't have that.... yet.
a b @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
You need to look beyond raw numbers to what the real picture is that people are describing. The numbers might say there's been 100 car crashes in an area but there's a difference between a dent and being mangled. Problem areas in the UK are less sever, more localised, and are cleared up more switftly. Grayling is just being a shrill fantasist.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Yes, because they are only numbers to you aren't they?

They are not another life taken, a life maimed, a family life wrecked or destroyed. It doesn't convince someone to carry 'protection' because someone else got knifed. It doesn't escalate, everyone just calms down and has a cup of tea.

They are only numbers.

So who is the fantasist here?
a b @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
I've witnessed murder, knifing, and GBH and been around areas that fit these profiles so have some experience of this. My first impression of Grayling's claims and the later comment by people with more intimate experience is in broad agreement.

That's the difference between some raw MBA and politician whose leather soled feet have never left a carpeted floor. Experience allows you to penetrate the numbers and see something closer to reality. I've learned to listen to and respect experience.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Mike, you're the one who was ignoring the detailed descriptions of the reality by people with intimate knowledge in favour of just focusing on the numbers. To then claim Charles is talking about 'only numbers' is remarkable chutzpah.
Thomas Williams @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
How so Thomas?

What detailed descriptions am I ignoring? The one's that say 'Oh it's not all bad' when actually it is?

a b @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
The ones from former gang members in both Manchester and Baltimore, and a professor of criminology who's co-authored a report with a former leader of the Conservative party, all of whom say the comparison between the UK and the Wire is fatuous. Those detailed descriptions.
Thomas Williams @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Oh asking former gang members the kinds of things they got up too?

Like maybe incriminating themselves for other crimes they committed but were not tried for?

Turkeys voting for Christmas?

Excuse me if I don't believe a word they say.

As for crime statistics; which one's were massaged by the government? That would be the violent crime ones wouldn't it?
a b @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
I spy an argument as opposed to scatter gun assertion.

Like you Peter I live in one of London's poorest Boroughs. I have NEVER seen anything like that community in Chicago in the UK. Peckham doesn't even come close and nor does anywhere else. I'm not just talking about crime- I'm talking every measure of socio-economic deprivation you can imagine. There is just no comparison.
Anthony Painter @ 48 weeks and 4 days ago
Anthony, Peter,

" ... a completely distorted view of crime due to the prevalence and immediacy of modern media."

Cheshire County Council (as was ; we now have two unitary councils in Cheshire) conducted regular household surveys, and a frequent question asked about 'fear of crime' (the question itself introduces the notion of 'fear' ... but let that pass).

Cheshire had two genteelish towns in the east half of the county (Congleton and Macclesfield) where crime was significantly lower than Ellesmere Port and Chester in the west half of the county. Regardless of personal experience (obviously, significantly lower in the east), the 'fear of crime' was identical in all four towns. I know what my conclusion is.

Now, I have to challenge Peter on his crime figures since Victorian times. The Home Office used to publish on its website all crimes since 1900, but I can't find it anymore. However, I do remember that the low-point for crime was in the early 1920s, after which crime doubled every 12 years or so, all the way through the 1950s and 1960s, up to a peak in the early 1990s.

Norman Dennis, in an article 'Defame fathers, create crime' gives notifiable offences to the police per 100,000 population from 1860, when the rate was 458/100k. By 1900, it was 249/100k and in 1920/24 : 282/100k.

By 1950, the rate was up to 1,094/100k, 1970 saw 3,221/100k and 1980 : 5,119/100k. The rate in 1991 was 10,007/100k (after ten years of 'law 'n' order 'Victorian-values' Conservatives ....). The counting rules changed significantly about six or seven years ago, so the series cannot be continued. However, crime has decreased significantly since 1997 and the British Crime Survey now reports - and has done for a couple of years, at least - that the risk of becoming a victim of crime is the lowest since the BCS began in the early 1980s.

The problem is : how does Labour get the message across in the face of an unscrupulous, headline grabbing media and unscrupulous attack-dog politicians such as Grayling, who would sell his grandmother to see a Tory government?
Peter Barnard @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Peter

As you know, raw crime states are next to useless, mainly because we've created a raft of new crimes, AND because more crimes are reported. In the 70s, if there was a rumble on a Friday or Saturday night (as there always was where I spent my teens in Aylesbury) no-one would report it, and the police didn't care unless it was GBH. More recently, when a crazy guy tried to attack me (twice) with a stick and a screwdriver, I was asked by the police if I wanted him prosecuted, though minimal contact had been made. Anecdotal, for sure, but the real fine tuned studies, which look at real experiences of crime, show that it has decreased markedly since the early 90s. Not so the perception of crime.

For the broader timescale, I must dig up Freakonomics among other sources, but in Europe the actual murder rate has declined by an amazing factor since the 1700s - something like one per thousand to one per hundred thousand. There are a lot of factors; policing, street lighting, the banning of casual carrying of swords, guns and knives. But many areas of central London, Saffron Hill and St Giles come to mind, were no-go areas for the authorities in the mid nineteenth century. Bodies were found weekly in the River Fleet before it was enclosed by Farringdon Road. In the late nineteenth century, whole swathes of East London were also no-go areas - Limehouse, or the area north of Brick Lane called the Nichol. Again, I'll dig out some statistics, but the murder rate - always a good indicator of these things - was something like 10 times greater than today.

Of course this doesn't help the Labour Government, or party spin prior to an election: but ramping up the fear of crime does little to solve it, and just causes consternation among the frail and elderly, and a vicious cycle of social distrust. As Jane Jacobs noted, an empty street is a dangerous street, and the more people back off our city centres, the more likely it is that the fear will be self fulfilling.

More anon.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Peter,

I respect your comments about 'raw crime statistics', but I don't think an awful lot of new crimes were created in the period 1920 - 1960, when crime did go up considerably (I'm always amused by Tory nostalgics who tell us that younster misbehaviour was solved by 'a clip behind the ear. What is a clip behind the ear?).

As in most of our discussions, I don't think that there is a million miles between us. Your point about 'more crime being reported' is balanced by the British Crime Survey, which asks its (ever-increasing) panel about actual experience of crime (most, anyway ; some crimes are excepted).

Regards
Peter Barnard @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Interesting that leap in the 1920s, especially given the carnage of WWI. You'd imagine people had no fight in them left. Or perhaps a generation were so traumatised by life in the trenches.

One factor which we're ignoring so far, which is plainly evident when you take out the statistical noise, is the correlation between crime, economic recession and unemployment. That's really the subject of The Wire - the economic necessity that drives young black men into the drugs economy.

It also makes sense. If I recall correctly, the vast majority of crimes are property rather than violent crimes.
Peter Jukes @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
This is why I keep pimping jobs, respect, and investment. Drugs, like Tory/Libertarian cynicism, is a short-cut to happiness. Drugs enable someone to have power, status, and wealth when other options aren't available. A more investment led approach and drug legalisation would help tackle this problem at both ends. Everyone's a winner.
Charles Hardwidge @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
The problem is certainly drugs, they were at it again today, banning stuff. The same old same old just doesn't work, time for some new ideas on this.
Charlie Farley @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Peter, there seemto be several problems with crime stats:

1/ You can't really trust govt statistics for the last quarter of a cebtury or so. Why do you think they changed the way the stats were counted do you think?

2/ All crimes aren't equal and /100K is a very rough way of looking at it. Presumably one less burglary and one more murder would give the same number.

3/ Some crimes are clearly down, for instance its much harder to steal cars nowadays.

4/ There is anecdotal evidence (yes I know) that the police don't seem that interested half the time and if they can get out of some paperwork they will. My local police made a big hoo-hah lately that they had been out stopping speeders and dangerous cars and bad drivers for a few days. Silly old me thought they did that all the time! People drive past my house at two or three times the speed limit every few minutes, do you think that makes any stats?

Charlie Farley @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
Charlie,

1/ The crime stats that I quoted up to the early 1990s appeared to me to follow a fairly consistent method of counting and actually, when the method of counting was changed ten years ago (not six or so years ago, I was going off memory in my first post), the number increased from 4.9 million to 5.1 million. This does not suggest manipulation by government.

I do, actually, 'trust' most statistics produced by government, especially by ONS and HM Treasury ; I don't trust the talking heads who come on TV afterwards, whether from politics or the media and I prefer to take my own look at them.

The Conservatives seriously manipulated the basis for unemployment statistics all through the 1980s.

2/ Very serious crimes, especially murder, are the exception rather than the rule. Most crime is what's called 'low level' these days - and has been for some time - but it is still a blight on people's lives.

3/ Agreed - but car manufacturers eventually built in the technology to avert car theft. I cannot speak for the propensity for car crime - it's an unknown.

4/ Agreed. I have to say that my respect for the police, as a national institution, has been declining steadily for heaven-knows how long. They just don't seem able to connect with folk and live in their own world.
Peter Barnard @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago
The Conservatives seriously manipulated the basis for unemployment statistics all through the 1980s.

Thats why I don't trust them! But we are largely in agreement.
Charlie Farley @ 48 weeks and 3 days ago