Everything hangs in the balance now – we may need a miracle

By Linda McAvan MEP

Well, Obama spoke, and made it clear that there are still obstacles to an agreement. The main barrier now seems to be resistance from developing countries – which in the Kyoto context includes Brazil and China – to any form of international monitoring of their domestic emission reductions.

The good news is that most major economies and emerging economies are now developing carbon reduction plans, but the developed countries – and Europe – will not put any cash on the table unless these domestic commitments are brought into an international framework.

One Chinese person I just spoke to hinted that the Chinese wanted stronger US targets – which Obama would struggle to agree until Congress votes through legislation. We are having a meeting shortly with US members of Congress, so we can test the water there.

But difficulties remain and the G77 group, which includes both emerging economies and some of the poorest countries on the planet, is arguing that it wants to stick strictly to Kyoto. The problem with Kyoto is that the US and Japan are not included and it places no requirements on countries like China, the world’s biggest emiter, to act. The Swedish Presidency of the EU told us of the difficulties in the talks which ran through the night: at one point some delegations asked for a 3 minute break and then simply didnt come back – effectively stopping the negotiations.

As Obama said, everything hangs in the balance – and this morning’s sense of optimism is now feeling fragile. President Lula just told us he still believes in miracles; with time running out, we may need one.