By UPDATE: My analysis of what the result means.
UPDATE: The results are in:
Willie Bain (Lab): 12,231
David Kerr (SNP): 4,120
Ruth Davidson (Con): 1,075
Charlie Bailey (BNP): 1,013
Eileen Baxendale (Lib Dems): 474
Total votes: 20,638
Turnout: 33%
Labour majority: 8,111
UPDATE: 1.45am - still no results; they're expected before 2am.
UPDATE: Wille Bain: "This is a great endorsement for Gordon Brown in his efforts to set the economy back on track and it shows the election is very much game on." Steady on, Willie.
UPDATE: It looks certain that Wille Bain will be the next MP for Glasgow North East now, with the SNP in second and - perhaps - BNP in third. The key aspects still to come will be the scale of the victory, the turnout and the majority; that's where the real meaning lies in this election.
UPDATE: SNP concede defeat, according to Sky News.
UPDATE: Radio Scotland says Tories think Labour majority may be 6,000; Lib Dem sources "expect" to lose deposit. Sky News also reporting a likely 5,000+ majority for Labour.
UPDATE: 35% turnout, according to Radio Scotland; 17,000 votes.
UPDATE: Turnout is likely to be between 35-40%, the lowest ever in Scotland.
UPDATE: The SNP are privately conceding defeat. Privately, of course.
UPDATE: Severin Carell of the Guardian says the SNP "fear the pensioner vote...out early and voting Labour". He also says that the BNP's vote is likely to be in the low hundreds - and that they may lose their deposit.
UPDATE: Guido has £100 on Labour to win.
UPDATE: No one really knows exactly what time the results are expected. I initially heard midnight, but am now hearing 2.30am. Could that be a sign of a higher turnout than initially expected?
UPDATE: Turnout in the 2005 general election here was 45.8% and in this year's Norwich North by-election it was 45.9%. The Glasgow Evening Times predicts nothing more than 35% today in Glasgow, Mike Smithson suggests it might be more.
UPDATE: Labour Students are still out in force in Glasgow, as they have been over the past few weeks.
UPDATE: LocalNewsGlasgow says (via Paul Owen):
"Willie Bain's Labour HQ is bustling with party workers and campaigners. There is an expectant and excited yet nervous buzz about the place... From a huddle of red-jacketed canvassers I hear one man in his 30s tell a younger gang of activists; "If you don't know what to say then just tell them; Vote Willie Bain, Vote Willie Bain, Vote Willie Bain!" …"
UPDATE: It's been overcast all day in Glasgow. Now rain's looking likely.
UPDATE: Mike Smithson considers what the turnout might be today.
UPDATE: Alex Salmond cagey on the result.
UPDATE: Ladbrokes' latest odds:
Labour: 1/6
SNP: 4/1
Jury Team: 101/1
BNP: 101/1
Conservatives: 101/1
Greens: 101/1
Liberal Democrats: 101/1
UPDATE: 2005 general election result:
Michael Martin (Speaker-Lab): 15,153
John McLaughlin (SNP): 5,019
Doris Kelly (Socialist Labour): 4,036
Graham Campbell (Scottish Socialist): 1,402
Daniel Houston (Scottish Unionist): 1,266
Scott McLean (BNP): 920
Joe Chambers (Ind): 622
--
The battle for Glasgow North East culminates today with the long-awaited by-election. Labour's candidate Wille Bain is expected to win, but no doubt there'll be several ups, downs and other news stories coming out of Glasgow today. I'll be updating this post with news from the frontline throughout the day and evening.
In the meantime, have a look over Willie's PPC Profile, his campaign diary over the past threeweeks and Freeman of the city of Glasgow Alex Ferguson's endorsement.
John Harris has been out speaking to local people in Glasgow, and has put together an interesting video featuring Willie, as well as a confrontation with the BNP and conversation with John Smeaton.
You can also watch Willie's campaign video below and join his team for the last crucial hours.
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Give Scotland independence though and it is not even newsworthy south of the border.
Thanks Billy Hill, thanks Billy McBain, thanks Labour.
Son of working class parents, raised in a council house.
Spent much of my early married life below the poverty line.
But I realise pigeon holes are important to some so carry on *rolls eyes*
I am. We have bigots on the left who brand people Toffs and you right wingers who call the working class feckless. It makes me sick. Complete divisive idiots in my view. Attack the behaviour not the person.
Are you serious?
They had a MP who spent more on wallpaper than most will earn in a life time
They had a MP who had to resign due to his dodgy expenses claims. A man who has grown rich and smug in his ermin.
They are in one of the most deprived seats in the UK and yet like donkeys they have voted for the same failed party for the last 74 years.
They have wee Willie whose campaign was based round being local but somehow couldn't vote in a local polling station.
These people are mugs. People that have for generations suckled at the teat of the state and who will blame anyone and everyone for their plight.
I think Glasgow is a great city but these tribalist ghettos get no sympathy from me. They richly deserve NuLabour.
How many Labour voters will turn out?
One of the safest seats in the UK despite 70 years of letting down its feckless residents.
And yet it NEEDS this effort to get a result. "Local man" Willie - who mysteriously used a postal vote - should a shoe in.
But he needed help. Lots and lots of it.
The question isn't really will Labour hold the seat - that's obvious. The question is what will the voter share be. A result under a 5,000 majority with a substantial reduced share of the vote SHOULD send shockwaves through the party. It likely won't. It will likely crow and slap itself on the back and pretend everything's fine.
We will see if the sudden surge of postal votes has done the trick by about 2AM
From a distance as well the campaigning is different and should be a lesson for 7 months or so
This is one of the safest of Labour seats and it will not be lost. In the last result we had 53% share of the vote. Many Labour voters will stay at home as a protest and this will skew the result. Anything less than 40-43% is bad.
I think anything about 40% of the vote would be very good and maybe we have seen a different way of campaigning more about on the ground rather than money ?
It ain't over until the Electoral Returning Officer announces the result ....
In the middle 1960s, a horse called Operatic Society (OS) started at 20 to 1 on in a two-horse race at Brighton.
OS had already won enough races at Brighton that, even if it was running backwards, you could have backed it with confidence. Money in the bank.
Well - you guessed it - OS was beat.