By Stuart King / @Stuart_King
It should have been obvious that the "COP-15" summit was becoming the COP-OUT summit weeks ago; arguably months and years ago. And it was because of mistakes by those evangelising on climate change, that have now been repeated and compounded. And I write this as a “believer” not a “sceptic”.
Talking up the challenges, the costs and the sacrifices, doesn't make most people want to buy-in to a solution. And getting the public to recognise the problem and buy-in to the solution isn't some irritating optional extra we can pick and choose whether to bother with. It's inseparable from dealing effectively with the problem.
Treating the public this way is what's caused the problem. It prompted scientists to foolishly fiddle the facts, conceal information and treat us as too stupid to be able to understand the very thing scientists are supposed to do: challenge orthodoxy.
It prompted politicians to offload difficult, expensive decisions onto unelected bureaucrats who were never going to be able to deliver the answers - because the answers demand the accountability they lack.
It prompted middle-class, affluent environmental activists - for whom fixing a wind turbine on their roof or paying a carbon offset after a quick holiday jaunt to the Caribbean is pocket-change - to lecture families on fixed incomes about what they will have to sacrifice. And each of these groups got exactly what they deserved at Copenhagen.
How about going down a different path now?
Here are the four ways I think a substantive deal on climate change could be rescued, which can resonate with the public and which doesn’t require us to retreat into caves to bring it about.
First, let’s learn from history. When I was growing up in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the big environmental threat was something called Acid Rain. It’s not talked about very much in the West now (although it's a growing problem in China, India and Brazil) because action was taken to combat it, raise environmental standards and improve technology to tackle the problem. In the 1990s the problem was the hole in the ozone layer – again a problem caused by the emission of damaging gasses and chemicals.
I know that climate change is an immensely bigger problem, but in these examples we can see that huge amounts of change can be made without scaring people that their world is going to end. And by putting investment in technology at the forefront of the battle we'll be creating new, long-term jobs in manufacturing and research, which will help our economy as we seek to come out of recession.
Second, we need to seriously challenge the way we have until now gone about tackling climate change to date. The carbon “cap and trade” system doesn’t provide a single incentive to reduce dependence on carbon-based fuels, which remain the cheapest available. We should look instead at a means of fees and dividends: fees for those choosing to stick with carbon-based fuels; dividends to those who switch.
And when I talk about dividends, I’m not talking about rewarding everyone who consumes energy - this won't be an impenetrable scheme like cap-and-trade that only multinationals dabble in above the heads of the rest of us: it will pay cash into your bank account if you go green. Click here to read an eloquent explanation by James Hansen, Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. As I've written before, incentives are far more effective than taxes in producing change - and one of the reasons Britain is so tired of green issues is because green taxes have been abused by politicians.
Third, instead of just writing developing nations blank cheques to insure them against climate change, let’s make sure that a large part of the developed world’s response is the establishment of an international trust to safeguard the world’s forests and reverse deforestation. While one half of the climate change threat has been the increase carbon emissions since the industrial revolution, the other half has been massive deforestation, and as we know forests are critical carbon absorbers.
And finally, let's put an end to top-down lecturing by government and do-gooders. Back at the time of the first Earth Summit, a project called Local Agenda 21 was set up. It was supposed to enable individuals, communities and groups to make their own contribution on the environment. It never worked: councils half-heartedly seized responsibility for LA21 and whereas these groups were supposed to be about people telling their representatives what to do, the reverse happened.
But the principle of LA21 is sound. Understanding and explaining the science of climate change needs to start at the bottom - with small groups being shown in clear and unequivocal ways what greenhouse gases do to temperature; the consequence that has on polar ice and the consequences that will have on water levels, currents and weather.
Politicians needs to talk about what we can do together, not what sacrifices must be imposed upon us from on high. Give us some confidence that what we’re being asked to do will address the concerns – that the goalposts won’t suddenly be moved once those targets are met. Invest much more in stuff that works and produces clear, visible achievements. And who knows, we might actually get not only a deal to reduce temperatures by 2 degrees or more - but a deal that governments can actually deliver because they will have the buy-in of their citizens.
Stuart King is Labour PPC for Putney. Read his PPC Profile here.
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I am utterly in favour of various things: population control within the world, not just the Anglo-Saxon confraternity. I recycle as well, I consider, as anyone on the planet. I drive a tiny little car as little as I can. I eat a lot of vegetables and fruit. I do not smoke.
(But I do drink and swear quite a bit).
To the facts, ladies and gentlemen, to the facts!
And why was the 'Age of Stupid' film not on BBC1 at prime-time, over Christmas? Wasn't it on BBC4?! It was frightning stuff.
I know that irrespective of what is actually happening the argument is being distorted by alarmists and those on the receiving end of government money. What's more I know the alarmist lobby is trying to shut out all descenting voices. They often do this in very personal and base terms, or if being more sophisticated, by getting unhelpful arguments barred from being published.
If the evidence is so unequivocal, why resort to such tactics?
I'm obviously not a scientist and don't understand the arguments/techniques/analysis. It does seem to me that the case has been made. After all these years criticizing scientists for poor communication with the public, we seem now prepared to disregard scientific advice. Had the arguments only appeared in scientific journals and been discretely picked up by the press as has been the way, it would have made no impact. I have no kids - hate the little bastards - but I feel an obligation to make provision for their futures. To paraphrase Pascal, if my belief in the problem is wrong, then no harm is done; if I disbelieve and the problem is real, then someone will have to pay for my folly.
The evidence of climate change is overwhelming.
But that is not where the problem is, the problem is over evidence of man made change.
The fact that Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting is not open to doubt. The fact that coral is dying is not open to doubt. The fact that glaciers are melting is not open to doubt.
What the alarmist "lobby" as you put it are doing is trying to sell the "man made" climate change variant.
As I said you can either believe that it’s man made in which case we might be able to do something, that it’s natural in which case we may be screwed or it's a mixture of the two.
But it has to be one of those as it is happening whether any sceptics like it or not.
Climate change is a reality, end of story.
I'm not making a judgement on whether it's man made or not, merely that it's happening.
If people wish to ignore the mass of scientific research that's their choice, their stupidity means little to me.
The general public is more interested in horoscopes, conspiracy theories, Area 51, the loch ness monster, Jordan, reality TV, Hello magazine, "the Sun says", soap operas, Posh and Becks, fake orange suntans and shopping for tat at Primark.
The general public wouldn't know a piece of scientific research if it bit them on their flabby arses. So frankly what the public view of climate change is and therefore the ludicrous deniers conspiracy theories, is of no interest to me one iota.
As I've said before I'm happy to just sit still and let it all happen.
We saw scientific research indicating climate change 20 years ago at Uni, long before all this anger started up.
As I've also said, I'm not sold either way at the moment on man made climate change and I certainly believe politicians are taking us all for a ride on green taxes.
However the loss of sea ice, increased ocean salinity, retreat of coral reefs, sea levels rises, increased global temperatures, melting glaciers, wildlife migrations and on and on indicate climate change at a significantly increased rate.
If you wish to claim that it's natural due to something like solar activity go for it, but that it is happening is beyond question.
By the way, trying to undermine the argument over a rate of climate change currently measured in decades if not years with reference to geological epoch level change isn't clever.
I see also the hostility towards science, which explains a lot.
With regard to the Antarctic, the following research indicates that the effects of climate change may increase snow fall at the South Pole. This is based upon a scientific model though, the sort you don't like, so be careful quoting it:
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/issues/climatechange/icesheets.asp
However the reality at the moment is that glaciers and ice sheets in areas of the Antarctic are retreating and in danger of collapse. This is not theorised through a model:
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/issues/climatechange/icesheets.asp
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5AL15120091122
The reality is that the earth does not have a multitude of black box micro climates, they are all inter dependent.
So it may turn out that climate change causes melt to occur at the North Pole and northern hemisphere glaciers and sea ice and the meteorological system circulates the increased H2O to the South Pole to fall as increased snow precipitation.
You don't know, I don't know. But to claim that increased snow fall at one pole negates climate change is stupid.
Climate change means CLIMATE CHANGE i.e. hotter in some places, colder in others, wetter in some places, dryer in others.
I'm not sure why I bother trying to explain these things out to people to be honest. You want to believe in a global conspiracy of thousands of scientist? Go ahead and have fun, I personally despair at the general stupidity of the public.
New low energy bulbs use up to seven times the materials to make compared with the cost of traditional filament bulbs, and cost more to dispose off when their life is finished.
And the light output is so poor that eyestrain will increase (for those that read these days anyway) too.
More harmonised nonsense from the EU department.
Fortunately, I have stock-pilled enough incandescent bulbs to last a couple of lifetimes.
I was hoping to make a killing selling them on the black market once the fascists had outlawed them. But it looks like all this MMGW scam has been rumbled and people are no longer willing to accept any more eco-dictats or 'green taxes'.
lol hi Max
Definitely not a Tory ;-) Cameron et. al. have also subscribed to this environmentalist lunacy.
The low-energy bulb-imposition lobby hopes we're too stupid to realise this.
The same applies to all the electricity you use- it doesn't matter what the appliance is, it all gets converted into heat as it is used. The only energy which escapes from your house is light escaping throught the windows and sound from motors or entertainment systems, and that is an infinitesimal amount. ALL the rest- including light and sound- get converted into heat. As an illustration, take a vacuum cleaner: it sucks air by means of a motor-driven impeller or suchlike. The motor generates heat as a function of its operation, plus a little mechanical friction: it also generates sound which (minutely) heats the air and walls, and the air it impels, filters and expels is heated by compression and friction from turbulence. The total of all these fractions of the electricity used is 100%, and the end result is heat. And a clean carpet.
totally agree on the Digital point about dumping millions of teles. I reckon its because millions had old teles that lasted for years as they were well built. The new teles dont last 10 minutes. So now we will all be forced to spend more and at the same time rape the Planet to produce more crap teles!
Also Plasma Screens use 8 x the amount of electricity than analogue teles, so why didn't our Goverment ban them or hit them with a serious tax penalty?
Everywhere you look our Politicians say once thing, Tax us more, and then change nothing, no wonder so many people now believe the whole thing is a con!
We could go back to the early 70s and remember the coming ice-age. I was a small Charlie then (as opposed to a big one now) and at school, very much like now, we all wrote stories about the impending global doom . . . . . of the planet freezing over and everyone dying. That and the ozone layer disappearing completely by 2010.
I am not denying that Climate Change is happening, its been happening since the Planet was formed.
I am not saying Co2 emmissions are good for our Planet or the whole Green Agenda in reducing our reliance on fossil fuels is wrong.
What I am asking is why has no one taken the Galatic Alignment into consideration? it only happens once every 27000 years and the alignment of all our Planets is causing a tremendous and powerful effect on the Magnetic Fireld which protects us from Solar Radiation. If more Solar Radiation is getting through and has been over the last 2 decades, would this not be an explanation for Global Warming?
Sorry Phillip, there's no gentle way to put this. The Galactic Alignment is a classic Web hoax/money-making scam/lie. There is no such alignment, nor is there going to be.
http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ask-an-astrobiologist/question/?id=3397
The galactic alignment theory is pure bunkum and has been looked at by the likes of NASA and treated as irrelevant.
Specifically NOAA "now predicts that the solar maximum will peak in 2013, not 2012, and that it will be fairly weak, with a below-average number of sunspots."
However the "galactic alignment" theory has proved a useful basis for the film 2012, I suggest you regard that as the most appropriate use of the theory.
How many people have signed up to the one day without meat campaign?
How many of those people who have had the luxury of flying in the past have given up flying?
How many people click daily on the Hungersite/Rainforest website to preserve the rainforest?
How many of you check the Palm Oil origin of your foodstuffs.
I was only converted to addressing the issue a few years ago exactly because of the information which was being made available. Why did we stop producing CFCs? - because they were banned, not because we all voluntarily stopped using them. Hypocrisy is indeed a problem. If the reference is to John Prescott's two Jags, he now, of course, has been converted too (not catalytically, of course) to preventing environmental change. At least, he had vehicles manufactured in the UK providing employment here. On the car issue, it is vital to preserve the motor industry technology in order to develop non-carbon, electric vehicles. Cap-and-trade is catastrophic, not because of governments, but because it does not reduce emissions, as mentioned, but also because it has become a speculative market into which the investment bankers have moved, another spot market, for the buying and selling of carbon licences. The 0bn promised at Copenhagen was intended in part to maintain the rainforest.
Preachy, preachy, preachy - but don't just piss on governments, examine yourselves.
Is it because they truthfully know it is bad science so therefore no real action is needed and its a great con to raise taxes?!
Why has not one Global Warming cheerleader or Scientist mentioned the Galactic Alignment which is currently taking place, which in effect is weakening the Planets Magnetic Field which is allowing more Solar Heat to penetrate our Atmosphere?
Climate change is a reality and at a rate of change that is fairly unprecedented. There is so muh scientific data to support it that you have to be fairly luddite and dumb to deny it.
What is open to question at the moment is the cause.
Now you can assign natural, man made or a mixture of causes as you see fit.
As of yet the proposed natural causes i.e. solar flares, sun spots and your solar heat theory really look fairly crank science.
You could argue that CO2 is in fact misleading and that H2O vapour in the upper atmosphere is far more likely to be acting as a greenhouse gas. That seems a far more likely possibility than "galactic alignment"
However whichever way you look at it the fact that unprecedented rates of climate change and damage that it is causing at the same time as massive human industrial development seems to me a little too much of a coincidence.
I will agree with you that politicians are making a mess of things, but that's because politicians generally aren't very clever people. If you have any intellectual capacity you don't go into politics.
Oh, I don't know - British cabinets have been chock full with Oxford PPE and other degree holders, many of them Firsts, plus a bunch of graduates from the other place on the edge of the Fens. The Heath cabinet (31 December 1970) had ten Oxford graduates and five Cambridge graduates, for example, out of seventeen members.
Happy New Year, by the way - first time I've "spoken to you," I think.
Happy New Year to you too.
How many Oxbridge graduates (or even Russell Group) now are in parliament and all the local councils?
My experience of politicians is that they are on the whole not anywhere near as bright as the scientists and business leaders I know.
Generally speaking the cleverest people I knew at University were horrified by the thought of going into politics, which I think says a lot about both politicians and the general public.
Thanks you for a well written and (brief!) easy to understand and well argued article.
You are so right. I am an agnostic on the issue. I have relevant expertise (physics and geology) and frankly so far the believers case is being made by people who make religious fanaticists look like moderates.
Let me add one very key point.
Let the UK Government practise what it preaches.
So far it says one thing and does another.
Extra runways at Heathrow? Housebuilding programmes? Car scrappage schemes.
All totally at variance with its "green" credentials.
So you can say what you like. I just look at what the Government does and know they don't believe in green issues.
After all, how can you employ a Minster who owns 2 jaguars or 5 houses and be green? Or who flies round the world to conferences?
It is a cow excrement and a reason to tax us.
All totally at variance with its "green" credentials.
Not to mention the ridiculous swap over to digital radio and tv and the shutdown of analogue forcing literally millions and millions and millions of perfectly functioning radios and tvs to be forced into landfill, and even more of the worlds resources dug out of the ground and used to make more!
2. It is man made to a large degree
3. It is approaching a tipping point
4. The only action open to us is massive curtailment of our way of life and punative taxation and massive increase in the size of governmental bodies.
Even if you agree with points 1-3 but you favour geo-engineering or adaptation at point of impact (both of which are perhaps more effective and hugely cheaper) you are screamed at by the hysterical alarmists as a ‘sceptic’. Rational debate is impossible at this point because the far left have made this their issue and it has taken on a religious tone.
But then, for lefties and the destruction of the capitalist system was always the objective. MMGW (like all the other millennialist scares before this one) is just the means.
As a sceptic , I would like to thank the aurthor for his tone and points , He is right ,most voters dont like being lectured and then seeing all the leaders jump on planes a fly to denmark, I notice Mr Balls has a gas uzzler(good leadership) , Its because the leadership make stupid soundbites like "50 days to save the world" and then policys like the 3rd runway at heathrow, This is why voters dont belive or trust the leadership .
However thanks for making a reasoned and mature argument .
Danny