LabourList's poll trends: Towards May 6th

Just as you feel truly sorry for Labour - even the New Labour types, along one of their number comes who does something so crass, so silly and so hypocritical that they appear risible.

Thus it was on the 1500 Radio 4 news summary that I heard pompous Lord Mandelson, sounding for all the world like a Bishop who had just been asked his views on sin, holding forth about Nick Clegg's expenses.

The self-righteous old Lord sounded what he is: tired, worn-out and peevish and hectoring. To be lectured on probity by Lord "Transparency and Accountability" is, or would be in other circumstances, uproariously funny, but in the circumstances it sounded pathetic.

Before he offers any more lectures to anyone, I'd like to utter two words into his shell-like: MORTGAGE APPLICATION

@ Alan G,

"MORTGAGE APPLICATION"

Top London lawyers Herbert Smith investigated the Mandleson mortgage for the Britannia Building Society and in their report : "Whilst there are some inconsistencies in the information given to us, as a result of our investigation (not least from our interview of Mr Mandelson) we have concluded that Mr Mandelson did not have any dishonest intent at any relevant time and did not consciously mislead the Society."

The third marginals poll for Mori show Lib Dems getting a swing in the Lab/Con Marginals. Now looks like 36/32/23 Lab/Con/LibDem so it is -5%/-6%/+12% respectively from the last one.

These marginals on 24th March showed 41/37/11 then went 41/38/11 so shows how much the first debate has effected the marginals. How this pans out for Tory gains from Labour is hard to fathom, though it is noticeable that surprisingly amongst the marginals Brown outscores Cameron in two key strengths most capable and best in a crisis.

http://redrag1.blogspot.com/

Just suppose that Labour do form a pact with the Lib Dems to form a Government from a minority base. What do you think the reaction of us voters will be? Simple. You have overturned democracy and stolen our Government. The price will be high. You have lost the argument. All we see now are grubby pathetic attempts to cling to power by a worn out elite of the political undead.

If God is just, I tremble for my country.

Sorry, but Lloyd Blankfein has other matters to deal with at the moment.

It seems some would prefer to lie to themselves rather than face the harsh reality. The goal for Labour seems to be a hung parliament.

This reminds me of the Iraq war. They prepared for war but had no idea what to do afterwards. You people really haven't thought this through have you?

Lets say Labour come third in the popular vote and yet get the most seats. You need to do a deal with Clegg. He says he will consider it but Brown must go.

What then?

(I won't ask the naturally following questions just yet)

Brown resigns and Harriet becomes temporary leader.

Now that would be rather interesting. The first real left-wing leader for many years.

She would have to lead the party into the second General Election that is almost certain to follow very soon !!!!

@Mike

The Tory support is beginning to bounce back a little, the Labour support may do so as well, however it may well be that the grass roots identify with the more cental and left manifesto the Libs are advocating and on the doorstep this is definitely the case.

Labour could employ a number of strategies at this juncture, I will be interested to see which one, GB may well sit back and leave the fighting to the Libs and the Cons, or may as REDRAG suggests try and rise above it all, I am unconvinced either is a good move.

Shame really if we had some defining and seriously radical policy that could capture the imaginations of the public and seperate ourselves on a moral tier (as RedRAg sort of suggests) we might be able to do this.

But we don't.

On a lighter note we can keep our fingers crossed and see what our strategic thinkers behind Mendleson and GB and Alastair Cambell can come up with. Between them they opened this can of worms and they can damn well close it.

Torys' strategy in meltdown according to Benedict Brogan in Telegraph. Knives are out for Cameron & Osborne.

Bring it on !

@Alan

Of course it is too late now for GB to dive the next debate and it will be amusing and and fascinating to see how he will have been "primed" by his advisors on the next "performance".

Will it be that the PLP end up being reaped by the very articial celebrity methodology they have fallen in love with so much?

Will the Tory's get another slap-shock?

Who knows ;) ?

There was this statistics student who, when driving his car, would always accelerate hard before coming to any junction, whizz straight over it , then slow down again once he'd got over it. One day, he took a passenger, who was understandably unnerved by his driving style, and asked him why he went so fast over junctions. The statistics student replied, "Well, statistically speaking, you are far more likely to have an accident at a junction, so I just make sure that I spend less time there."

Whichever way you look at it, things are not looking good for Labour. 3rd place and with the Conservatives having a 7 point advantage (plus of course the caveat that you have to allow an error of margin).

My honest advice would be to play on the NHS a relative success story for Labour, and highlight the links to the private health industry held by many senior Tory poiliticans. It has to be hoped that tomorrows economic figures predictions look good. If I were Labour, I would stop going on about the LibDems and concentrate the fire on the Tories. Even if Nick Clegg turns out to be bigger than the Beatles, it would be impossible for them to actually win given there is just a fortnight to go, and they are your only credible ally.

This is far too pessimistic an assessment.

The Tories now accept that they cannot get an overall majority and as long as we develop and seal the alliance with the Libdems we'll
together command 60% of the vote and well over 330 seats.

I agree that our firepower should be concentrated against the Tories and our best negotiators focus on sealing the Libdem alliance.

Hi Mike

Lib dem policys will not be taken up if they join New labour , There amnisty on immigration (and the un-libreal regional restrants), They wont offer referendum on anything including eu in/out , why on the eu most of the voters are euro scepticc (last poll i remember seeing) , also they want id cards scrapped.

danny

Hi Danny,

It's up to us to grab control of policy in an alliance.

We have some key advantages :

1. The best negotiators in the form of Mandleson and Adonis (ex Libdem)

2. We can exploit Libdems own policy differences to get our policies agreed. Cable and the bulk of Libdems are very much closer to us than Clegg who seems to be the figurehead chosen to attract the exTory vote

3. We can offer them voting reform in return for them dropping the policies we do not agree with.


So given where we are in the polls at least the Libdem alliance offers us a route to keeping out the Tories
and protecting most of our policy agenda.

Mike

hi Mike

so just lie to them ? , I thought Mr Brown was offering a new politics .

Danny

Danny

No - just agree a joint agenda which takes some of their key policies eg getting rid of Trident with ours and offers them voting reform.

The Libdems are realistic. They will jump at the chance of shared power and will accept that they have to compromise as the junior partner in the alliance.

Principles have no real force except when one is well-fed.

@ Max Good,

"Principles have no real force except when one is well-fed."

There's a world of truth - and history - in that statement.